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Combined Effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on Cold Temperature Over Asia

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Abstract

The combined effect of the Madden−Julian oscillation (MJO) and Arctic oscillation (AO) on the temperature variation over Asia is investigated using the thermodynamic budget equation. Because of the distinct geographical origin of the two atmospheric modes, the influence of AO is more dominant in the higher latitude, whereas the MJO impact is more predominant in the lower latitude. Hence, the physical process responsible for the surface cold anomaly is different for northern and southern Asia. Cold anomaly appears in most of Asia 20–25 days after the MJO phase 6 (corresponding to the phase 2–3). However, more strengthened cold anomaly occurs over northern Asia under the negative AO state and it is caused by advection of temperature anomaly by climatological northerly wind associated with the East Asia winter monsoon flow. On the other hand, much stronger cold anomaly is seen over southern Asia under the positive AO state for the same lag day of the initial MJO phase 6. Aside from the upward overturning circulation forced by the tropical MJO over the subtropics and lower midlatitudes, the weakening of the East Asia subtropical jet by the positive AO induces additional upward motion over southern Asia to adjust the thermal wind balance. The combined effect of the MJO and AO also influences on the occurrence of extreme cold event. Under the negative (positive) AO phase, the extreme cold event occurrence probability over northern (southern) Asia increases by 90% (60%) compared to that for all winter days. The relative increase rate for the MJO phases 2–3 is ~30% over southern Asia. The cold event occurrence probability for the combined modes is about the twice that for only MJO impact, suggesting that an incorporation of both modes enhance the predictability of extreme cold event.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIP) (No. NRF-2018R1A2A2A05018426) and the KMA Research and Development Program under Grant KMI 2018–01012. We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their careful and helpful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea

    Hyun-Ju Lee & Kyong-Hwan Seo

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

    Qigang Wu

  3. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Seoung-Soo Lee

  4. Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea

    Hyo-Seok Park

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  1. Hyun-Ju Lee
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Correspondence to Kyong-Hwan Seo.

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Responsible Editor: Sang-Wook Yeh.

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Lee, HJ., Seo, KH., Wu, Q. et al. Combined Effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on Cold Temperature Over Asia. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 55, 75–89 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-018-0091-2

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