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Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

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Abstract

In this study, the projection of future drought conditions is estimated over South Korea based on the latest and most advanced sets of regional climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios, within the context of the national downscaling project of the Republic of Korea. The five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to produce climate-change simulations around the Korean Peninsula and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these simulations. The horizontal resolution of each RCM is 12.5 km and model simulations are available for historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2100) periods under forcing from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To assess the characteristics of drought on multiple time scales in the future, we use Standardized Precipitation Indices for 1-month (SPI- 1), 6-month (SPI-6) and 12-month (SPI-12). The number of drought months in the future is shown to be characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends among the scenarios. In particular, the number of drought months over South Korea is projected to increase (decrease) for the period 2041-2070 in the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and increase (decrease) for the period 2071-2100 in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, the percentage area under any drought condition is overall projected to gradually decrease over South Korea during the entire future period, with the exception of SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario. Particularly, the drought areas for SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario show weakly positive long-term trend. Otherwise, future changes in drought areas for SPI-6 and SPI-12 have a marked downward trend under the two RCP scenarios.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea

    Yeon-Woo Choi & Joong-Bae Ahn

  2. Kongju National University, Kongju, Korea

    Myoung-Seok Suh

  3. Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Korea

    Dong-Hyun Cha

  4. Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

    Dong-Kyou Lee

  5. Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea

    Song-You Hong

  6. Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Korea

    Seung-Ki Min

  7. Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea

    Seong-Chan Park

  8. National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Jeju, Korea

    Hyun-Suk Kang

  9. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Jangjeon 2-dong, Geumjeonggu, Busan, 46241, Korea

    Joong-Bae Ahn

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  1. Yeon-Woo Choi
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  4. Dong-Hyun Cha
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Correspondence to Joong-Bae Ahn.

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Choi, YW., Ahn, JB., Suh, MS. et al. Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 52, 209–222 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-016-0020-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-016-0020-1

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