Abstract
Short-range prediction of precipitation is a critical input to flood prediction and hence the accuracy of flood warnings. Since most of the intensive processes come from convective clouds-the primary aim is to forecast these small-scale atmospheric processes. One characteristic pattern of organized group of convective clouds consist of a line of deep convection resulted in the repeated passage of heavy-rain-producing convective cells over NW part of Macedonia along the line. This slowly moving convective system produced extreme local rainfall and hailfall in urban Skopje city. A 3-d cloud model is used to simulate the main storm characteristic (e.g., structure, intensity, evolution) and the main physical processes responsible for initiation of heavy rainfall and hailfall. The model showed a good performance in producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall event than is possible with current operational system. The output results give a good initial input for developing appropriate tools such as flooding indices and potential risk mapping for interpreting and presenting the predictions so that they enhance operational flood prediction capabilities and warnings of severe weather risk of weather services. Convective scale model-even for a single case used has proved significant benefits in several aspects (initiation of convection, storm structure and evolution and precipitation). The storm-scale model (grid spacing-1 km) is capable of producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall events than is possible with current operational systems based on model with grid spacing 15 km.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Blamey, R. C., and C. J. C. Reason, 2009: Numerical simulation of a mesoscale convective system over the east coast of South Africa. Tellus, 61A, 17–34.
Bresson, E., V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, D. Ricard, and C. de Saint-Aubin, 2012: Idealized numerical simulations of quasi-stationary convective systems over the Northwestern Mediterranean complex terrain. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1751–1763.
Buzzi, A., S. Davolio, P. Malguzzi, O. Drofa, and D. Mastrangelo, 2014: Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1325–1340, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1325-2014.
Chen, S. S, R. A. Houze, and B. E. Mapes, 1996: Multiscale variability of deep convection in relation to large-scale circulation in TOGA COARE. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1380–1409.
Coniglio, M. C, Harold E. Brooks, S. J. Weiss, and S. F. Corfidi, 2007: Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 556–570.
Curic, M., 2000: Cloud dynamics. Belgrade University Serbia Press, 250 pp.
Curic, M., and D. Janc, 1995: On the sensitivity of the continuous accretion rate equation used in bulk-water parameterization schemes. Atmos. Res., 39, 313–332.
Curic, M., and D. Janc, 1997: On the sensitivity of hail accretion rates in numerical modeling. Tellus, 49, 100–107.
De Lima, E., E. L. Nascimento, and K. K. Droegemeier, 2005: Dynamic Adjustment in a Numerically Simulated Mesoscale Convective System. Impact of the Velocity Field. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2246–2268.
Doswell, C. A., H. E. Brooks, and R. A. Maddox, 1996: Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients based methodology. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 560–581.
Dudhia, J., 2014: Review: A History of mesoscale model development. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 121–131, doi:10.1007/s13143-014-0031-8.
Durran, D. R., 1981: The effects of moisture on mountain lee waves. Ph. D. Thesis, Mass chussets Institute of Technology, Boston, MA, USA (NTIS PB 82126621).
Ferrier, B. S., Y. Lin, T. Black, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego, 2002: Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 280–283
Goyens, C., D. Lauwaet, M. Schröder, M. Demuzere, V. Lipzig, and P. M. Nicole, 2012: Tracking mesoscale convective systems in the Sahel: relation between cloud parameters and precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1921–1934.
Fritsch, J. M, and G. S. Forbes, 2001: Mesoscale convective systems. Meteor. Monogr., 28, 323–358, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/0065-9401-28.50.323.
Houze, R. A., 1993: Cloud Dynamics. Academic, San Diego, California, 573 pp.
Houze, R. A., 2004: Mesoscale convective systems. Rev. Geophys., 42, doi: 10.1029/2004RG000150.
Klemp, J. B., and R. B.Wilhelmson, 1978: The simulation of threedimensional convective storm dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1070–1096.
Klemp, J. B., and D. R. Durran, 1983: An upper boundary condition permitting internal gravity wave radiation in numerical mesoscale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 430–444.
Koch, S. E., B. Ferrier, M. Stolinga, E. Szoke, S. J. Weiss, and J. S. Kain, 2005: The use of simulated radar reflectivity fields in the diagnosis of mesoscale phenomena from high resolution WRF model forecasts; Preprints, 11th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque.
Janjic, Z. I., 2003a: A nonhydrostatic model based on a new approach. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 82, 271–285. [Available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-001-0587-6]
Janjic, Z. I., 2003b: The NCEP WRF core and further development of its physical package. 5th international SRNWP workshop on nonhydrostatic modeling, Bad Orb, Germany, 27–29 October.
Lin, Y. L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville, 1983: Bulk water parameterization in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 1065–1092.
Mathon, V., H. Laurent, and T. Lebel, 2002: Mesoscale convective system rainfall in the Sahel. J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 1081–1092.
Mrowiec, A. A, C. Rio, A. M. Fridlind, A. S. Ackerman, A. D. Del Genio, O. M. Pauluis, A. C. Varble, and J. Fan, 2012: Analysis of cloudresolving simulations of a tropical mesoscale convective system observed during TWP-ICE: Vertical fluxes and draft properties in convective and stratiform regions. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D19201, doi:10.1029/2012JD017759.
Nachamkin, J. E., and W. R. Cotton, 1999: Interactions between a Developing Mesoscale Convective System and Its Environment. Part II: Numerical Simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1225–1244.
Nakazawa, T., 1988: Tropical cloud clusters within intraseasonal variations over the western Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 66, 823–839.
Orville, H. D., and F. J. Kopp, 1977: Numerical simulation of the history of a hailstorm. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1596–1618.
Parodi, A., G. Boni, L. Ferraris, F. Siccardi, P. Pagliara, E. Trovatore, E. Foufoula-Georgiou, and D. Kranzlmueller, 2012: The “perfect storm”: from across the Atlantic to the hills of Genoa. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 93, 225–226.
Parker, M. D., R. H. Johnson, 2004: Structures and dynamics of Quasi-2D mesoscale convec tive systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 545–567.
Pulvirenti, L., M. Chini, S. Marzano, N. Pierdicca, S. Mori, L. Guerriero, G. Boni, and L. Candela, 2011: Detection of floods and heavy rain using Cosmo-SkyMed data: The event in Northwestern Italy of November 2011. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2012 IEEE International, 3026–3029 pp., 22–27 July 2012, doi: 10.1109/IGARSS.2012.6350788.
Rebora, N., and Coauthors, 2013: Extreme rainfall in the mediterranean: What can we learn from observations?. J. Hydrometeor, 14, 906–922, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-083.1.
Schenkman, A. D, M. Xue, and A. Shapiro, 2012: Tornadogenesis in a simulated mesovortex within a mesoscale convective system. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3372–3390, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-038.1.
Sekhon, R. S., and R. C. Srivastava, 1970: Snow size spectra and radar reflectivity. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 299–307.
Silvestro, F., S. Gabellani, F. Giannoni, A. Parodi, N. Rebora, R. Rudari, and F. Siccardi, 2012: A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2743–2752, doi: 10.5194/nhess-12-2743-2012.
Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2, NCAR Tech.NoteTN-468+STR, 88 pp. [Available online at http://wrf-model.org./wrfadmin/Publications]
Smith, P. L., G. G. Myers, and H. D. Orville, 1975: Radar reflectivity calculations on numerical cloud models using bulk parameterization of precipitation. J. Appl. Meteorol., 14, 1156–1165.
Spiridonov, V., and M. Curic, 2003: Application of a cloud model in simulation of atmospheric sulfate transport and redistribution. Part I: Model description. Idojárás, 107, 85–114.
Spiridonov, V., and M. Curic, 2006: A three-dimensional modeling studies of hailstorm seeding. J. Wea. Mod., 38, 31–37.
Spiridonov, V., Z. Dimitrovski, and M. Curic, 2010: A three-dimensional simulation of supercell convective storm. Adv. Meteor., 2010, 15 pp., doi:10.1155/2010/234731.
Telenta, B., and N. Aleksic, 1988: A three-dimensional simulation of the 17 June 1978 HIPLEX case with observed ice multiplication, 2nd International Cloud Modeling Workshop, Toulouse, 8-12 August 1988. WMO/TD No. 268, 277–285.
Weverberg, K.V., A. M. Vogelmann, W. Lin, E. P. Luke, A. Cialella, P. Minnis, M. Khaiyer, E. R. Boer, and M. P. Jensen, 2013: The Role of Cloud Microphysics Parameterization in the Simulation of Mesoscale Convective System Clouds and Precipitation in the Tropical Western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1104–1128, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0104.1.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Spiridonov, V., Curic, M. A storm modeling system as an advanced tool in prediction of well organized slowly moving convective cloud system and early warning of severe weather risk. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 51, 61–75 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0060-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0060-3