Applicability of the superensemble to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific
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In this study a superensemble was constructed and assessed to examine its applicability to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific. The data used for this study were outputs of 20 tropical cyclone forecast models and analyzed tropical cyclone tracks by the Korea Meteorological Administration from 2011 to 2013. The annual mean track errors were analyzed at the 24-, 48-, 72-, 96- and 120-h periods for 2012 and 2013, and the superensemble forecasts showed lower annual errors than the simple mean consensus (using 20 numerical models), ECMWF_TIGG, and GFS. The superensemble track errors for individual tropical cyclone cases were lower than the simple mean consensus over 60% of the total cases, and lower than the best-performing model over 50% of the total cases for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecast periods. In the track error distribution, the superensemble had lower density for relatively large errors than the simple mean consensus, and higher density for smaller errors than single models. When the results are combined, the probability of the superensemble yielding lower errors than the simple mean consensus and single models becomes high, which indicates that the superensemble can serve as an objective reference for the tropical cyclone track forecasts.
KeywordsSuperensemble tropical cyclone track forecast consensus objective reference
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