Abstract
Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) is an important proxy of the marine ecological environment and phytoplankton production. Long-term trends in CHL of the South China Sea (SCS) reflect the changes in the ecosystem’s productivity and functionality in the regional carbon cycle. In this study, we applied a previously reconstructed 15-a (2005–2019) CHL product, which has a complete coverage at 4 km and daily resolutions, to analyze the long-term trends of CHL in the SCS. Quantile regression was used to elaborate on the long-term trends of high, median, and low CHL values, as an extended method of conventional linear regression. The results showed downward trends of the SCS CHL for the 75th, 50th, and 25th quantile in the past 15 a, which were −0.004 0 mg/(m3·a) (−1.62% per year), −0.002 3 mg/(m3·a) (−1.10% per year), and −0.001 9 mg/(m3·a) (−1.01% per year). The negative trends in winter (November to March) were more prominent than those in summer (May to September). In terms of spatial distribution, the downward trend was more significant in regions with higher CHL. These led to a reduced standard deviation of CHL over time and space. We further explored the influence of various dynamic factors on CHL trends for the entire SCS and two typical systems (winter Luzon Strait (LZ) and summer Vietnam Upwelling System (SV)) with single-variate linear regression and multivariate Random Forest analysis. The multivariate analysis suggested the CHL trend pattern can be best explained by the trends of wind speed and mixed-layer depth. The divergent importance of controlling factors for LZ and SV can explain the different CHL trends for the two systems. This study expanded our understanding of the long-term changes of CHL in the SCS and provided a reference for investigating changes in the marine ecosystem.
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Fig. S1. Trends of sea surface temperature in the whole year for linear trend of classic least squares model (a), 75th quantile (b), 50th quantile (c), and 25th quantile (d). e-h are for winter and i-l are for summer.
Fig. S2. Trends of wind speed in the whole year for linear trend of classic least squares model (a), 75th quantile (b), 50th quantile (c), and 25th quantile (d). e-h are for winter and i-l are for summer.
Fig. S3. Trends of mixed layer depth in the whole year for linear trend of classic least squares model (a), 75th quantile (b), 50th quantile (c), and 25th quantile (d). e-h are for winter and i-l are for summer.
Fig. S4. Trends of gridded absolute dynamic height in the whole year for linear trend of classic least squares model (a), 75th quantile (b), 50th quantile (c), and 25th quantile (d). e-h are for winter and i-l are for summer.
Fig. S5. Trends of steric height in the whole year for linear trend of classic least squares model (a), 75th quantile (b), 50th quantile (c), and 25th quantile (d). e-h are for winter and i-l are for summer.
Fig. S6. Trends of sea surface temperature front in the whole year for linear trend of classic least squares model (a), 75th quantile (b), 50th quantile (c), and 25th quantile (d). e-h are for winter and i-l are for summer.
Fig. S7. The mean of chlorophyll a concentration, sea surface temperature, wind speed, mixed layer depth, steric height, sea surface temperature front in the last five years (2015-2019) minus the mean of the first five years (2005-2009).
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Wang, T., Sun, Y., Su, H. et al. Declined trends of chlorophyll a in the South China Sea over 2005–2019 from remote sensing reconstruction. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 42, 12–24 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-022-2097-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-022-2097-y