Abstract
Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change. In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters (e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO). 2007. An assessment of the need to adopt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change. Final report. Canberra, Australia: Commonwealth of Australia, Australian Greenhouse Office
Bjarnadottir S, Li Yue, Stewart M G. 2011. A probabilistic-based framework for impact and adaptation assessment of climate change on hurricane damage risks and costs. Structural Safety, 33(3): 173–185
Blake E S, Gibney E J. 2011. The deadliest, costliest, and most intense United States tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2010 (and other frequently requested hurricane facts), NOAA technical memorandum NWS NHC-6. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). 2008. Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate. Regions of focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A report by the U.S. climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Washington D C, USA: Department of Commerce, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
Devore J L. 2000. Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences. 5th ed. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press
Ellingwood B R, Lee J Y. 2015. Life cycle performance goals for civil infrastructure: intergenerational risk-informed decisions. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering: Maintenance, Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance, doi: 10.1080/15732479.2015.1064966
Elsner J B, Bossak B H. 2001. Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate. Journal of Climate, 14(23): 4341–4350
Emanuel K. 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436(7051): 686–688
Fitzpatrick P J. 2006. Hurricanes: A Reference Handbook. 2nd ed. Santa Barbara California, USA: ABC-CLIO Ltd
Hallegatte S. 2007. The use of synthetic hurricane tracks in risk analysis and climate change damage assessment. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46(11): 1956–1966
Holland G J, Webster P J. 2007. Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1860): 2695–2716
Huang Zhigang, Rosowsky D V, Sparks P R. 2001. Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 74(3): 239–249
Jain V K, Davidson R, Rosowsky D. 2005. Modeling changes in hurricane risk over time. Natural Hazards Review, 6(2): 88–96
Katz R W. 2002. Stochastic modeling of hurricane damage. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 41(7): 754–762
Knutson T R, McBride J L, Chan J, et al. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3): 157–163
Landsea C W. 2007. Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 88(18): 197–202, doi: 10.1029/2007EO180001
Landsea C W, Harper B A, Hoarau K, et al. 2006. Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones?. Science, 313(5786): 452–454
Li Yue, Ellingwood B R. 2006. Hurricane damage to residential construction in the US: Importance of uncertainty modeling in risk assessment. Engineering Structures, 28(7): 1009–1018
Li Yue, Stewart M G. 2011. Cyclone damage risks caused by enhanced greenhouse conditions and economic viability of strengthened residential construction. Natural Hazards Review, 12(1): 9–18
Li Quanwang, Wang Cao, Ellingwood B R. 2015. Time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of non-stationary loads and degradation. Structural Safety, 52: 131–142
Lin Ning, Emanuel K, Oppenheimer M, et al. 2012. Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2(6): 462–467
Liu Fangqian. 2012. Development and calibration of central pressure filling rate models for hurricane simulation [dissertation]. South Carolina, USA: Clemson University
Mudd L, Wang Yue, Letchford C, et al. 2014. Assessing climate change impact on the U.S. east coast hurricane hazard: temperature, frequency, and track. Natural Hazards Review, 15(3): doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000128
Pinelli J P, Simiu E, Gurley K, et al. 2004. Hurricane damage prediction model for residential structures. Journal of Structural Engineering, 130(11): 1685–1691
Saunders M A, Lea A S. 2008. Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Nature, 451(7178): 557–560, doi: 10.1038/nature06422
Stewart M G, Rosowsky D V, Huang Zhigang. 2003. Hurricane risks and economic viability of strengthened construction. Natural Hazards Review, 4(1): 12–19
Unanwa C O, McDonald J R. 2000. Building wind damage prediction and mitigation using damage bands. Natural Hazards Review, 1(4): 197–203
Vickery P J, Masters F J, Powell M D, et al. 2009. Hurricane hazard modeling: the past, present, and future. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 97(7–8): 392–405
Vickery P J, Skerlj P F, Twisdale L A. 2000. Simulation of hurricane risk in the U.S. using empirical track model. Journal of Structural Engineering, 126(10): 1222–1237
Vickery P J, Twisdale L A. 1995. Prediction of hurricane wind speeds in the United States. Journal of Structural Engineering, 121(11): 1691–1699
Weiss N A. 2014. Introductory Statistics. 9th ed. Harlow, Essex: Pearson
Xu Fumin, Bui Thi T D, Perrie W. 2014. The observed analysis on the wave spectra of Hurricane Juan (2003). Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 33(11): 112–122
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation item: The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 51578315; the Major Projects Fund of Chinese Ministry of Transport under contract No. 201332849A090.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, C., Li, Q., Pang, L. et al. Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 35, 110–118 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-016-0828-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-016-0828-7