Abstract
A comprehensive assessment of the consequences of dam-break is a critical strategic necessity for guaranteeing socio-economic development and lives for individuals. The consequences of dam-break are affected comprehensively by a multitude of uncertainties, resulting in multi-source and inconsistent relationships between indicators. It is extremely tough to integrate information from different sources adequately under multiple uncertainties, which often limit the assessment reliability. In this work, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation methodology for the consequences of dam-break was developed through multi-source information fusion. Firstly, cloud model was employed to deal with randomness and fuzziness in the quantification of the grading of indicators and constructed the basic probability assignment function of the evidence corresponding to each data source. Then, in order to address the issue that conflicting evidence cannot be effectively fused utilizing traditional evidence theory. The basic probability assignment function was fused by the improved evidence theory. Furthermore, due to the differences in the importance of each data source in the assessment process. The corresponding weights were determined employing trapezoidal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally, the effectiveness of the method was verified by taking five reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin. It shows that multiple uncertainties from different sources of information are combined and handled and the severity grades of consequences of dam-break can be quantitatively analyzed with our assessment method. Meanwhile, multi-source information with conflicts and uncertainties can be approached to produce more reliable risk assessment results in the situation of highly conflicting evidence.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.
References
Bhuyian MdNM, Kalyanapu A (2018) Accounting digital elevation uncertainty for flood consequence assessment. J Flood Risk Manag 11:S1051–S1062. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12293
Chen W, Wang X, Liu M et al (2018) Probabilistic risk assessment of RCC dam considering grey-stochastic-fuzzy uncertainty. KSCE J Civ Eng 22:4399–4413. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-018-0765-4
Cleary PW, Prakash M, Mead S et al (2015) A scenario-based risk framework for determining consequences of different failure modes of earth dams. Nat Hazards 75:1489–1530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1379-x
Fan Q, Tian Z, Wang W (2018) Study on risk assessment and early warning of flood-affected areas when a dam break occurs in a mountain river. Water 10:1369. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101369
Fluixá-Sanmartín J, Escuder-Bueno I, Morales-Torres A, Castillo-Rodríguez JT (2020) Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 203:107100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107100
Fu X, Gu C-S, Su H-Z, Qin X-N (2018) Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15:886. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15050886
Ge W, Li Z, Liang RY et al (2017) Methodology for Establishing Risk Criteria for Dams in Developing Countries, Case Study of China. Water Resour Manag 31:4063–4074. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1728-0
Ge W, Jiao Y, Sun H et al (2019) A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach. Water 11:2224. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112224
Ge W, Wang X, Li Z et al (2021) Interval Analysis of the Loss of Life Caused by Dam Failure. J Water Resour Plan Manag 147:04020098. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001311
Ge W, Jiao Y, Wu M, et al (2022) Estimating loss of life caused by dam breaches based on the simulation of floods routing and evacuation potential of population at risk. J Hydrol 612:128059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128059
Hariri-Ardebili MA (2018) Risk, Reliability, Resilience (R3) and beyond in dam engineering: A state-of-the-art review. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 31:806–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.07.024
Hariri-Ardebili MA, Mahdavi G, Nuss LK, Lall U (2023) The role of artificial intelligence and digital technologies in dam engineering: Narrative review and outlook. Eng Appl Artif Intell 126:106813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2023.106813
He G, Chai J, Qin Y et al (2020) Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks. Water Resour Manag 34:2677–2697. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02556-x
Ji Y, Chen A, Li Z et al (2021) A comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam failure using improved matter element analysis. Environ Earth Sci 80:695. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09992-x
Jing M, Jie Y, Shou-yi L, Lu W (2018) Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in the risk assessment of dangerous small-sized reservoirs. Int J Mach Learn Cybern 9:113–123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13042-015-0363-4
Judi D R, Pasqualini D, Arnold JD (2014) Computational challenges in consequence estimation for risk assessment-numerical modelling, uncertainty quantification, and communication of results. Los Alamos National Lab.(LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States).
Kalinina A, Spada M, Marelli S, et al (2016) Uncertainties in the risk assessment of hydropower dams:state-of-the-art and outlook. Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland ; ETH Zurich, Chair of Risk, Safety and Uncertainty Quantifi- cation, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
Khaleghi B, Khamis A, Karray FO, Razavi SN (2013) Multisensor data fusion: A review of the state-of-the-art. Inf Fusion 14:28–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2011.08.001
Kim B, Sanders BF (2016) Dam-Break Flood Model Uncertainty Assessment: Case Study of Extreme Flooding with Multiple Dam Failures in Gangneung, South Korea. J Hydraul Eng 142:05016002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001097
Li D, Liu C, Gan W (2009) A new cognitive model: Cloud model. Int J Intell Syst 24:357–375. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20340
Li Z, Li W, Ge W (2018) Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:3355–3362. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3355-2018
Li W, Li Z, Ge W, Wu S (2019) Risk Evaluation Model of Life Loss Caused by Dam-Break Flood and Its Application. Water 11:1359. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071359
Li W, Li Z, Ge W, Zhang H (2020) Environmental impact evaluation model of dam breach —considering the uncertainty feature of environment. DESALINATION WATER Treat 183:131–138. https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2020.25205
Li M, Si W, Ren Q et al (2021) An integrated method for evaluating and predicting long-term operation safety of concrete dams considering lag effect. Eng Comput 37:2505–2519. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-020-00956-6
Liu Q, Tian Y, Kang B (2019) Derive knowledge of Z-number from the perspective of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Eng Appl Artif Intell 85:754–764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2019.08.005
Lyu H-M, Yin Z-Y, Zhou A, Shen S-L (2023) MCDM-based flood risk assessment of metro systems in smart city development: A review. Environ Impact Assess Rev 101:107154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107154
McCann MW, Paxson G (2016) Uncertainty in Dam Failure Consequence Estimates. E3S Web Conf 7:11003. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160711003
Morales-Torres A, Escuder-Bueno I, Serrano-Lombillo A (2019) Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in risk-informed decision making for dam safety management. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 191:106562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106562
Mudashiru RB, Sabtu N, Abdullah R et al (2022) A comparison of three multi-criteria decision-making models in mapping flood hazard areas of Northeast Penang, Malaysia. Nat Hazards 112:1903–1939. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05250-w
Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, Mishra V (2018) Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather Clim Extrem 20:45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.005
Murphy CK (2000) Combining belief functions when evidence conflicts. Decis Support Syst 29:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-9236(99)00084-6
Psomiadis E, Tomanis L, Kavvadias A et al (2021) Potential Dam Breach Analysis and Flood Wave Risk Assessment Using HEC-RAS and Remote Sensing Data: A Multicriteria Approach. Water 13:364. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030364
Ribas JR, Pérez-Díaz JI (2019) A multicriteria fuzzy approximate reasoning approach for risk assessment of dam safety. Environ Earth Sci 78:514. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8526-3
Sammen SSh, Mohamed TA, Ghazali AH et al (2017) An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters. Nat Hazards 87:545–566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2764-z
Sekamane T, Nel WAJ, McKay TJ, Tantoh HB (2023) Community perceptions of the social impacts of the Metolong Dam and Reservoir in Lesotho. Land Use Policy 125:106495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106495
Shafer G (1976) A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Sun WW, Li L, Zheng HY, Zhao XY (2013) Comparison on Dam Risk Consequences Comprehensive Evaluation Model. Adv Mater Res 785–786:1465–1468. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.785-786.1465
Sun R, Wang X, Zhou Z et al (2014) Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part i: Model Development Nat Hazards 73:1547–1568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1154-z
Tao Y, Ren BT (2012) Improvement of Evidence Compound Rule Based on Partial Conflict Allocation Strategies. Comput Eng 38:268–270. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3428.2012.15.076(inChinese)
Tchamova A, Dezert J (2012) On the behavior of Dempster’s rule of combination and the foundations of Dempster-Shafer Theory. In: 2012 6th IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS. IEEE, Sofia, Bulgaria, 108–113. https://doi.org/10.1109/IS.2012.6335122
Van Laarhoven PJM, Pedrycz W (1983) A fuzzy extension of Saaty’s priority theory. Fuzzy Sets Syst 11:229–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-0114(83)80082-7
Wang XL, Wang QS, Sun RR, Ao XF (2012a) Study on the Gray Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model about Dam-Break Consequences. Adv Mater Res 594–597:1965–1968. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.594-597.1965
Wang XL, Zhou ZY, Sun RR, Zhou SS (2012b) Fuzzy Hierarchy Comprehensive Evaluation on Dam-Break Risk Analysis. Adv Mater Res 383–390:2151–2155. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.383-390.2151
Wang C, Zhang S, Tan Y et al (2017) Life Loss Estimation Based on Dam-Break Flood Uncertainties and Lack of Information in Mountainous Regions of Western China. Trans Tianjin Univ 23:370–379. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12209-017-0056-z
Wang RZ, Li L, Sheng JB (2006) On criterion of social and environmental risk of reservoir dams. J Saf Environ 1:8–11. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1009-6094.2006.01.003(inChinese)
Xiang X, Li K, Huang B, Cao Y (2022) A multi-sensor data-fusion method based on cloud model and improved evidence theory. Sensors 22:5902. https://doi.org/10.3390/s22155902
Xiong F (2020) A Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Dam Failure Consequences Based on Combined Weighted Cloud Model. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci 560:012008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/560/1/012008
Zhu X, Bao T, Yeoh JKW et al (2023) Enhancing dam safety evaluation using dam digital twins. Struct Infrastruct Eng 19:904–920. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2021.1991387
Zhou Z, Wang X, Sun R, et al (2014) Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results. Nat Hazards 72:675–700. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1029-8
Funding
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 52309148], National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 52192671] and Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety [grant number HESS-1908].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Ruirui Sun, Kaixuan Fei. The visualization, formal analysis and validation were performed by Yimingjiang Reheman, Jinjun Zhou and Ding Jiao. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Kaixuan Fei and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Ethical statement
This work does not involve the use of any human participants or animals. This research article is original and has not been published nor is it being considered for publication elsewhere. All the authors mutually agree to this submission.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Sun, R., Fei, K., Reheman, Y. et al. Comprehensive uncertainty evaluation of dam break consequences considering multi-source information fusion. Environ Earth Sci 83, 323 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11610-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11610-5