Abstract
Floods are one of the most common natural hazard having far reaching environmental implications such as soil and bank erosion, pollution of ground and surface water and landslides etc. Flood inundation modeling is frequently simulated through the numerical solution of 2D shallow water equations. These equations are a potent tool that can be used to obtain satisfactory solutions in complex riverine geometry. The usage of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is becoming more prevalent in environmental modeling for various purposes such as uncertainty assessment, model calibration, and robust decision-making. This research is a case study of the Tous Dam break in Spain and the resultant urban flooding which was assessed for SA using the method of Morris. In all, five parameters were assessed, namely, river Manning, large roughness, time step, turbulent coefficient, and downstream boundary condition for their influence on the model output. The output, comprising depth, flood extent, bed shear stress, and time of initial inundation among others was assessed spatially as well as temporally. The temporal disaggregation revealed that the dominant factors changed position as the flood regime changed from rising to peak and then to recession. The peak flow stage had the large roughness as the most influential parameter and river Manning in the first 2 h of the rising phase while downstream boundary condition predominated during both the rising and receding phases. Curiously, temporal disaggregation revealed that the model time step, which was a marginally important parameter throughout, was able to assume the No. 1 ranking during the phase of decreasing flow i.e. the onset of the recession phase, when the model time step has to adjust from high flow velocity to slower velocities.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
Data is available on the following link https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2007.9521832.
References
Abily M, Bertrand N, Delestre O et al (2016) Spatial global sensitivity analysis of high resolution classified topographic data use in 2D urban flood modelling. Environ Model Softw 77:183–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.002
Ahmadi M, Ascough JC, DeJonge KC, Arabi M (2014) Multisite-multivariable sensitivity analysis of distributed watershed models: Enhancing the perceptions from computationally frugal methods. Ecol Modell 279:54–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.02.013
Alcrudo F, Mulet J (2007) Description of the Tous Dam break case study (Spain). J Hydraul Res 45:45–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2007.9521832
Alipour A, Jafarzadegan K, Moradkhani H (2022) Global sensitivity analysis in hydrodynamic modeling and flood inundation mapping. Environ Model Softw 152:105398. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2022.105398
Bellos V, Papageorgaki I, Kourtis I et al (2020) Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm. Nat Hazards 101:711–726. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11069-020-03891-3/FIGURES/6
Brockmann D, Morgenroth E (2007) Comparing global sensitivity analysis for a biofilm model for two-step nitrification using the qualitative screening method of Morris or the quantitative variance-based Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). Water Sci Technol 56:85–93. https://doi.org/10.2166/WST.2007.600
Cacuci (2003) Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis, Volume I: Theory. In: CRC Press. Raton, Florida. https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis%2C Volume I%3A Theory&author=D.G. Cacuci&publication_year=2003. Accessed 26 Jun 2022
Campolongo F, Braddock R (1999) Sensitivity analysis of the IMAGE Greenhouse model. Environ Model Softw 14:275–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(98)00079-6
Campolongo F, Saltelli A (1997) Sensitivity analysis of an environmental model: an application of different analysis methods. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 57:49–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(97)00021-5
Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Saltelli A (2007) An effective screening design for sensitivity analysis of large models. Environ Model Softw 22:1509–1518. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2006.10.004
Cesare MA (1991) Firstorder analysis of openchannel flow. J Hydraul Eng 117:242–247. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1991)117:2(242)
Chaudhry MH (2007) Open-channel flow: Second Edition. Open-Channel Flow. Springer, pp 1–523.
Ciric C, Ciffroy P, Charles S (2012) Use of sensitivity analysis to identify influential and non-influential parameters within an aquatic ecosystem model. Ecol Modell 246:119–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2012.06.024
Confalonieri R, Bellocchi G, Donatelli M (2010) A software component to compute agro-meteorological indicators. Environ Model Softw 25:1485–1486. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2008.11.007
Costabile P, Costanzo C, Kalogiros J, Bellos V (2023) Toward street-level nowcasting of flash floods impacts based on HPC hydrodynamic modeling at the watershed scale and high-resolution weather radar data. Water Resour Res 59:034599. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034599
Dimitriadis P, Tegos A, Oikonomou A et al (2016) Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping. J Hydrol 534:478–492. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2016.01.020
Franczyk A (2019) Using the Morris sensitivity analysis method to assess the importance of input variables on time-reversal imaging of seismic sources. Acta Geophys 67:1525–1533. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11600-019-00356-5
Haider S, Saeed U, Shahid M (2020) 2D numerical modeling of two dam-break flood model studies in an urban locality. Arab J Geosci 13:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/S12517-020-05709-9/FIGURES/13
Hall JW, Tarantola S, Bates PD, Horritt MS (2005) Distributed sensitivity analysis of flood inundation model calibration. J Hydraul Eng 131:117–126
Herman JD, Kollat JB, Reed PM, Wagener T (2013) Technical note: method of morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:2893–2903. https://doi.org/10.5194/HESS-17-2893-2013
Huang YT, Liu L (2008) A hybrid perturbation and Morris approach for identifying sensitive parameters in surface water quality models. J Environ Informatics 12:150–159. https://doi.org/10.3808/JEI.200800133
Ishigaki T, Nakagawa H, Baba Y (2004) Hydraulic model test and calculation of flood in urban area with underground space. Environ Hydraul Sustain Water Manag Two Vol Set. https://doi.org/10.1201/B16814-232
Jung Y, Merwade V (2015) Estimation of uncertainty propagation in flood inundation mapping using a 1-D hydraulic model. Hydrol Process 29:624–640. https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.10185
King DM, Perera BJC (2013) Morris method of sensitivity analysis applied to assess the importance of input variables on urban water supply yield—a case study. J Hydrol 477:17–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.017
Lai YG (2008) SRH-2D version 2: Theory and user’s manual, Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group, Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver. https://www.usbr.gov/pmts/sediment/
Lai YG (2009) Two-dimensional depth-averaged flow modeling with an unstructured hybrid mesh. J Hydraul Eng 136:12–23. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000134
Lai E, Knowles B, Hogan S, Lai Y (2021) Flood simulation and assessment due to dam breaching of the Cherry Creek Reservoir, Colorado. World Environ Water Resour Congr 2021 Plan a Resilient Futur along Am Freshwaters—Sel Pap from World Environ Water Resour Congr. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483466.012
Lavoie B, Mahdi TF (2017) Comparison of two-dimensional flood propagation models: SRH-2D and Hydro_AS-2D. Nat Hazards 86:1207–1222. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11069-016-2737-7/FIGURES/12
Mohr J (1998) Dam-break flood analysis: Review and recommendations. Volume 111 of Bulletin (International Commission on Large Dams)
Molinaro P, Natale L (1994) Modelling of Flood Propagation Over Initially Dry Areas: Proceedings of the Specialty Conference Held in Milan, Italy at ENEL-DSR-CRIS, 29 June–1 July 1994
Morris MD (1991) Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments. Technometrics 33:161–174. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1991.10484804
Morris DJ, Speirs DC, Cameron AI, Heath MR (2014) Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos. Ecol Modell 273:251–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.019
Neal J, Keef C, Bates P et al (2013) Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence. Hydrol Process 27:1349–1363
Oubennaceur K, Chokmani K, Nastev M et al (2019) New sensitivity indices of a 2D flood inundation model using gauss quadrature sampling. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050220
Papaioannou G, Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Aronica GT (2016) Flood inundation mapping sensitivity to riverine spatial resolution and modelling approach. Nat Hazards 83:117–132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2382-1
Pappenberger F, Beven KJ, Ratto M, Matgen P (2008) Multi-method global sensitivity analysis of flood inundation models. Adv Water Resour 31:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.04.009
Paquier A, Bazin PH, El Kadi AK (2020) Sensitivity of 2D hydrodynamic modelling of urban floods to the forcing inputs: lessons from two field cases. Urban Water J 17:457–466. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2019.1669200
Pianosi F, Sarrazin F, Wagener T (2015) A Matlab toolbox for global sensitivity analysis. Environ Model Softw 70:80–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.04.009
Pilotti M, Maranzoni A, Milanesi L et al (2014) Dam-break modeling in alpine valleys. J Mt Sci 11:1429–1441. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11629-014-3042-0/METRICS
Pilotti M, Milanesi L, Bacchi V et al (2020) Dam-break wave propagation in alpine valley with HEC-RAS 2D: experimental cancano test case. J Hydraul Eng 146:05020003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001779/SUPPL_FILE/SUPPLEMENTAL_DATA_HY.1943-7900.0001779_PILOTTI.ZIP
Quirogaa VM, Kurea S, Udoa K, Manoa A (2016) Application of 2D numerical simulation for the analysis of the February 2014 Bolivian Amazonia flood: application of the new HEC-RAS version 5. Ribagua 3:25–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RIBA.2015.12.001
Ralston DC (1987) Mechanics of embankment erosion during overflow. In: Hydraulic engineering. ASCE. pp 733–738.
Ren J, Zhang W, Yang J (2019) Morris sensitivity analysis for hydrothermal coupling parameters of embankment dam: a case study. Math Probl Eng. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2196578
Saltelli A (2004) Sensitivity analysis in practice: a guide to assessing scientific models. Wiley, New York, p 219
Saltelli A (2008) Global sensitivity analysis: the primer. Wiley, New York
Saltelli A, Chan K, Scott EM (2000) Sensitivity analysis. Wiley, New York, p 475
Saltelli A, Ratto M, Tarantola S, Campolongo F (2006) Sensitivity analysis practices: strategies for model-based inference. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91:1109–1125
Singh VP, Scarlatos PD (1988) Analysis of gradual earthdam failure. J Hydraul Eng 114:21–42. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1988)114:1(21)
Soares Frazao S, Zech Y (2005) Simulation of the IMPACT case study on the Tous dam-break flow. Proceedings of the 31st IAHR World Congress, Seoul, 2005
Sun XY, Newham LTH, Croke BFW, Norton JP (2012) Three complementary methods for sensitivity analysis of a water quality model. Environ Model Softw 37:19–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2012.04.010
Thomas Steven Savage J, Pianosi F, Bates P et al (2016) Quantifying the importance of spatial resolution and other factors through global sensitivity analysis of a flood inundation model. Water Resour Res 52:9146–9163. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018198
Vetsch D., Siviglia A. FR 2018. (2018) System Manuals of BASEMENT, Version 2.8. Lab Hydraul Glaciol Hydrol (VAW) ETH Zurich.
Willis TDM (2014) Systematic analysis of uncertainty in flood inundation modelling. PhD thesis, University of Leeds. https://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/7493/
Xing Y, Shao D, Ma X et al (2021) Investigation of the importance of different factors of flood inundation modeling applied in urbanized area with variance-based global sensitivity analysis. Sci Total Environ 772:145327. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2021.145327
Xu Y, Zhang LM (2009) Breaching parameters for earth and rockfill dams. J Geotech Geoenvironmental Eng 135:1957–1970. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000162
Yi X, Zou R, Guo H (2016) Global sensitivity analysis of a three-dimensional nutrients-algae dynamic model for a large shallow lake. Ecol Modell 327:74–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.005
Acknowledgements
I would like to extend my wholehearted gratitude towards my supervisor Dr. Sajjad Haider, of the Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan for all the time and support he provided me technically and morally.
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization: SH; methodology: AU, SH, RF; data curation: AU; formal analysis and investigation: AU, SH; software: AU; validation and visualization: AU; writing—original draft preparation: AU; writing—review and editing: SH, RF; supervision: SH.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ullah, A., Haider, S. & Farooq, R. Sensitivity analysis of a 2D flood inundation model. A case study of Tous Dam. Environ Earth Sci 83, 213 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11500-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11500-w