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Quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the Shiyang River Basin

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Abstract

Linear regression, inverse distance weighting analyses, and Budyko’s hypothesis were applied to the Shiyang River Basin. The spatial and temporal characteristics of runoff from the main stream and tributaries in the Shiyang River Basin from 1959 to 2017 were analyzed. Furthermore, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff in the Shiyang River Basin were quantitatively resolved. The annual runoff showed a decreasing trend (0.06 × 108 m3/10a), with a spatial distribution pattern decreasing from southwest to northeast. Runoff in the Shiyang River Basin accelerated significantly after 1990, and the growth rate was most significant in the main stem. In addition, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration increased at a rate of 7.44 and 8.46 mm/10a, respectively. The areas of farmland and urban land increased to different degrees, whereas the areas of the remaining land types decreased. The construction of hydropower stations was concentrated in the period 2004–2011. Finally, the contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff in the upper reaches were 81.17 and 18.83%, and the main factor of runoff change is climate change. The contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff in the middle and lower reaches were 15.83 and 84.17%, respectively. The main factor affecting runoff change was human activity. Climate change and human activity are the main factors affecting runoff from inland river basins in arid regions. The results provide parameter support for quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on inland river basin runoff and for modeling. The findings also provide a scientific basis for the rational allocation, planning, and management of water resources and the sustainable development of arid inland river basins.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Key R&D Plan Projects in Gansu Province(23YFFA0062), Innovative Groups in Gansu Province (20JR10RA038), Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U22A202690), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0607702), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0405),Chinese Academy of Sciences cross-innovation team project, Chinese Academy of Sciences Young Crossover Team Project(JCTD-2022-18);The "Western Light"-Key Laboratory Cooperative Research Cross-Team Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Talent Support Program of Hongliu Youqing in Lanzhou University of Technology. We greatly appreciate suggestions from anonymous referees for the improvement of our paper. Thanks also to the editorial staff.

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Author notes

  1. Duan Ran and Xin Huijuan have contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, 730050, China

    Duan Ran, Li Zongjie, Xu Bin, Liu Mengqing & Liu Xiaoying

  2. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin/Gansu Qilian Mountains Ecology Research Center, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Xin Huijuan

Authors
  1. Duan Ran
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  2. Xin Huijuan
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  4. Xu Bin
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Contributions

DR and XHJ: is writing the original draft and doing formal analysis and methodology. The main contribution for LZJ: is reviewing, editing, providing conceptualization and resources, supervising, and providing the project administration. The main contribution for XB and LMQ is investigating and data curation. The main contribution for LXY is investigating and doing formal analysis.

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Correspondence to Li Zongjie.

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Appendix A

Appendix A

See Figs. 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

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Ran, D., Huijuan, X., Zongjie, L. et al. Quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the Shiyang River Basin. Environ Earth Sci 83, 172 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11456-x

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