Abstract
As population growth and urbanization are steadily rising, the need for dependable flood estimation techniques is crucial. This study evaluates extreme flood events in select sub-basins of the Lower St. Johns River in Florida, USA. The study considers the effect of urbanization on the natural hydrologic processes and flood magnitudes in the watershed. Additionally, the effects of varying seasonality into the hydrologic modeling procedure are also investigated. This research focuses on determining the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return frequency flood flows in Julington Creek, Ortega River, and Pablo Creek of the Lower St. Johns River Basin in Florida, USA. The major findings of this research indicate that by implementing a range of flood estimation methods one can better describe the inherent uncertainty with traditional estimates. Also, the research showed that varying seasonality in the hydrologic modeling procedure does not result in vast differences in the resulting flood estimates. However, various land-use scenarios may produce simulated flood flows of greater magnitude—especially when a more urbanized land-use scenario is modeled.
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Supplementary data has been uploaded.
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The HSPF code for each sub-basin is available from the St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD).
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Acknowledgements
Samantha Kovalenko would like to acknowledge the extensive support of the St. Johns River Water Management staff for their valuable input and for making their existing HSPF models available for use in this research effort.
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Funding was provided by Dr. Chris Brown and by the UNF Environmental Center.
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SK completed the data analysis, writing, and revisions. Dr. Brown assisted with data analysis, review, and editing. Drs. Akan and Schonning assisted with editing and review.
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All work presented herein was completed by the research team listed. Portions of the work was published in the Master's Thesis of Kovalenko (2020) and in Kovalenko et al. (2020) and have been cited in the paper as such. The Master’s Thesis work is summarized and discussed thoroughly herein.
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Kovalenko, S., Brown, C.J., Akan, C. et al. An examination of extreme floods, effects on land-use change and seasonality in the lower St. Johns River Basin, Florida using HSPF and statistical methods. Environ Earth Sci 81, 87 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-10038-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-10038-5