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Assessment of extreme climatic event model parameters estimation techniques: a case study using Tasmanian extreme rainfall

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Abstract

The use of generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to model extreme climatic events and their return periods is widely popular. However, it is important to calculate the three parameters (location, scale and shape) of the GEV distribution before its application. To estimate the parameters of the GEV distribution, different parameters estimation techniques are available in literature. Nevertheless, there are no set guidelines with a view of adopting a specific parameters estimation technique for the application of the GEV distribution. The sensitivity analysis of different parameters estimation techniques, which are commonly available in the application of the GEV distribution is the main objective of this study. Extreme rainfall modelling in Tasmania, Australia was carried out using four different parameters estimation techniques of the GEV distribution. The homogeneity of the extreme data sets were tested using the Buishand Range Test. Based on the estimated errors (MSE and MAE), the L-moments parameter estimation technique is appropriate for the data series, where there is a possibility to have outliers. The GEV distribution parameters can vary considerably due to variation in the length of the data series. Finally, Fréchet (type II) GEV distribution is the most appropriate distribution for most of the rainfall stations analysed in Tasmania.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, School of Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC, 3122, Australia

    Iqbal Hossain & Monzur Alam Imteaz

  2. School of Engineering and Technology, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia

    Anirban Khastagir &  Most. Nazeen Aktar

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  1. Iqbal Hossain
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  2. Anirban Khastagir
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  3. Most. Nazeen Aktar
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  4. Monzur Alam Imteaz
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Correspondence to Iqbal Hossain.

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Hossain, I., Khastagir, A., Aktar, . et al. Assessment of extreme climatic event model parameters estimation techniques: a case study using Tasmanian extreme rainfall. Environ Earth Sci 80, 518 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09806-0

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