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Prevalent risk of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region of Pakistan

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Abstract

The retreating behavior of glaciers observed in most of the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region has given rise to the formation and expansion of numerous glacial lakes in the region. The lakes expansion under changing climate usually poses high risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard for the downstream communities. In the present study, the risk of glacial lake outburst flood was investigated in the HKH region of Pakistan using LANDSAT-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) image data of 2013 period coupled with ground information. The results of present study revealed 3044 lakes (surface area about 134.8 km2) in the three HKH ranges, maximum in the Karakoram (1325) and minimum in the Hindu Kush range (722) during 2013. The lakes exhibited an overall increase of about 26% in number and 7% in area in the region during 2001–2013 period. The increase in lake number was 91% within 2500–3500 m, 20% within 3500–4500 m and 31% within 4500–5500 m elevation range. Among total identified lakes during 2013, 36 were characterized as potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) that can pose GLOF hazard in the HKH region. A regular monitoring of cryosphere changes and critical glacial lakes is essential to develop sustainable risk management strategies for this region in future.

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Acknowledgements

The technical and financial support by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Adaptation Fund (AF) and Climate Change Division of Pakistan under Pakistan GLOF project for execution of this study is highly acknowledged. We are also thankful to Dr. Ghulam Rasul, Mr. Adnan Shafiq Rana and Muhammad Atif Wazir of PMD, Mr. Khalil Ahmad, Mr. Zahid Hussain and Mr. Hamid Ahmed of Pakistan GLOF Project and Mr. Imran Ahmad and Mr. Abdul Jawad of GIS team, National Agricultural Research Center for rendering valuable field and mapping support for this study. We also appreciate the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for rendering valuable input for improving quality of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate, Energy and Water Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre, Park road, Chakshahzad, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Arshad Ashraf, Muhammad Bilal Iqbal, Naveed Mustafa, Rozina Naz & Bashir Ahmad

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  1. Arshad Ashraf
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  2. Muhammad Bilal Iqbal
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  3. Naveed Mustafa
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  4. Rozina Naz
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  5. Bashir Ahmad
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Contributions

AA, BA contributed in conceptualization, MBI and NM in design and RN in write-up of the paper; MBI, NM and RN involved in data acquisition and development and BA in discussion and analysis during execution of the study.

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Correspondence to Arshad Ashraf.

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Ashraf, A., Iqbal, M.B., Mustafa, N. et al. Prevalent risk of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region of Pakistan. Environ Earth Sci 80, 451 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09740-1

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