Abstract
In areas with strong earthquakes, the triggering rainfall threshold for debris flow initiation decreased dramatically just after the quake, but will increase gradually during the subsequent raining seasons, until the level before the quake. The channel width and particle size in the source area of debris flows in catchments decreased dramatically during a strong earthquake due to the supply of finer material in channels by co-seismic landslides. Debris flows in these areas are initiated by run-off water in channels and the presence of loose materials and narrowed channels leads to a significant decrease of the critical rainfall threshold for debris flow initiation just after the earthquake. The gradually coarsening of the material and widening of the channels during the subsequent raining seasons by debris flows and flashfloods will rise again the triggering threshold. Based on these important principles, a revised prediction model on debris flows is proposed, which incorporates the effect of channel width and the particle size of channel materials. The new prediction model was successfully validated on a group of debris flow events in Dechang, Sichuan Province, China. The new prediction model was also able to successfully simulate the change of the triggering rainfall threshold before and after the Wenchuan Earthquake in the Wenjia Gully, Sichuan Province, China, where five debris flow events happened during three subsequent rainy seasons after the earthquake. It is suggested that the new prediction model on debris flows (can also be applied) is also valid in non-seismic areas where significant loose material is available supplied by large landslides.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Yes.
References
Alzo’ubi AK (2018) State of the art,reconstruction of damaged zones: transitory stresses effect and factors controlling rock mass stability. Int J Geomate 14(41):35–43
Chang TC, Chien YH (2007) The application of genetic algorithm in debris flows prediction. Environ Geol 53:339–347
Chang DS, Zhang LM, Xu Y, Huang RQ (2011) Field testing of erodibility of two landslide dams triggered by the 12 May Wenchuan earthquake. Landslides 8:321–332
Chen HX, Zhang LM, Zhang S (2014) Evolution of debris flow properties and physical interactions in debris-flow mixtures in the Wenchuan Earthquake zone. Eng Geol 182:136–147
Domènech G, Fan X, Scaringi G, van Asch TWJ, Xu Q, Huang R, Hales TC (2019) Modelling the role of material depletion, grain coarsening and revegetation in debris flow occurrences after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Eng Geol 250:34–44
Fan X, Domènech G, Scaringi G, Huang R, Xu Q, Hales TC, Dai L, Yang Q, Francis O (2018a) Spatio-temporal evolution of mass wasting after the 2008 Mw 7. 9 Wenchuan earthquake revealed by a detailed multi-temporal inventory. Landslides 15(12):2325–2341
Fan RL, Zhang LM, Wang HJ, Fan X (2018b) Evolution of debris flow activities in Gaojiagou Ravine during 2008–2016 after the Wenchuan Earthquake. Eng Geol 235:1–10
Frank F, Huggel C, McArdell BW, Vieli A (2019) Landslides and increased debris-flow activity: a systematic comparison of six catchments in Switzerland. Earth Surf Proc Land 44(3):699–712
Gregoretti C, Dalla Fontana G (2007) Rainfall threshold for the initiation of debris flows by channel-bed failure in the Dolomites. In: Chen CL, Major JJ (eds). Debris-flow mitigation: mechanics, prediction and assessment, 11–21
Horton AJ, Hales TC, Ouyang C, Fan X (2019) Identifying post-earthquake debris flow hazard using Massflow. Eng Geol 258:105134
Hu W, Dong XJ, Xu Q, Wang GH, van Asch TWJ, Hicher PY (2016) Initiation processes for run-off generated debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake area of China. Geomorphology 253:468–477
Hungr O, Leroueil S, Picarelli L (2014) The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update. Landslides 11:167–194
Kean JW, Staley DM, Cannon SH (2011) In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in Southern California: comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions. J Geophys Res 116(F4):F04019
Kean JW, McCoy SW, Tucker GE, Staley DM, Coe JA (2013) Runoff-generateddebris flows: Observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, andfrequency. J Geophys Res Earth Surface 118:2190–2207
Ma M, Yu B, Wang Z, Zhu YB, Zhu Y (2014) The degree of rock solid in the formation of gully type debris in Kuanyu region in Dechang. Sci Technol Eng 14:25–31 (in Chinese with English abstract)
McCoy SW, Kean JW, Coe JA, Tucker GE, Staley DM, Wasklewicz TA (2012) Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters ofa steep catchment. J Geophys Res Earth Surface 117:F03016
McGuire LA, Rengers FK, Kean JW, Staley DM (2017) Debris flow initiation by runoff in a recently burned basin: is grain-by-grain sediment bulking or en masse failure to blame? Geophys Res Lett 44(14):7310–7319
Saito H, Korup O, Uchida T, Hayashi S, Oguchi T (2014) Rainfall conditions, typhoon frequency, and contemporary landslide erosion in Japan. Geology 42:999–1002
Shieh CL, Chen YS, Tsai YJ, Wu JH (2009) Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after the Chi-Chi Earthquake in central Taiwan, China. Int J Sediment Res 24(2):177–188
Simoni A, Bernard M, Berti M, Boreggio M, Lanzoni S, Stancanelli LM, Gregoretti C (2020) Runoff-generated debris flows: Observation of initiation conditions and erosion–deposition dynamics along the channel at Cancia (eastern Italian Alps). Earth Surface Proc Landforms. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4981
Staley DM, Kean JW, Cannon SH, Schmidt KM, Laber JL (2013) Objective definition of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California. Landslides 10:547–562
Takahashi T (1991) Debris Flow. IAHR Monograph Series, Balkema, Rotterdam
Tang C, Zhu J, Ding J, Cui X, Chen L, Zhang J (2011) Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 14 August 2010 rainfall at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. Landslides 8:485–497
Tognacca C, Bezzola GR, Minor H-E (2000) Threshold criterion for debris-flow initiation due to channel-bed failure. In: Proceedings 2nd Int. Conf. on debris-flow hazard mitigation, Taipei, pp 89–97. Balkema
Van Asch TWJ, Tang C, Alkema D, Zhu J, Zhou W (2014) An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows. Nat Hazards 70:299–311
Van Asch TWJ, Yu B, Hu W (2018) The Development of a 1-D integrated hydro-mechanical model based on flume tests to unravel different hydrological triggering processes of debris flows. Water 10(7):950
Wu J, Kang Z, Tian L, Zhang S (1990) The observation and research on debris flows in Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province. Sciences Press Beijing (in Chinese)
Xu Q (2010) The 13 August 2010 catastrophic debris flows in Sichuan Province: characteristics, genetic mechanism and suggestions. J Eng Geol 18(5):596–608 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Yang FR, Zhou HW, Huo M, Cao T, Liang Y, Lin K (2016) Rainfall induced debris flow characteristics and mechanisms of plagues after the outbreak of the earthquake in Wenchuan. China Rural Water Hydropower 12(38–42):48 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Yin Y, Zhu J, Yang S (2010) Investigation of a high speed and long run-out rockslide-debris flow at Dazhai in Guanling of Guizhou Province. J Eng Geol 18(4):445–454 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Yu B (2011) Research on prediction of debris flows triggered in channels. Nat Hazards 58(1):391–406
Yu B, Ma Y, Wu Y (2013) Case study of a giant debris flow in the Wenjia Gully, Sichuan Province. China Nat Hazards 65(1):835–849
Yu B, Wu Y, Chu S (2014a) Preliminary study of the effect of earthquakes on the rainfall threshold of debris flows. Eng Geol 182:130–135
Yu B, Zhu Y, Wang T, Chen Y, Zhu YB, Tie Y, Lu K (2014b) A prediction model for debris flows triggered by a runoff-induced mechanism. Nat Hazards 74:1141–1161
Yu B, Zhu Y, Wang T, Zhu YB (2016a) A 10-min rainfall prediction model for debris flows triggered by a runoff induced mechanism. Environ Earth Sci 75:216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4963-9
Yu B, Wang T, Zhu Y, Zhu YB (2016b) Topographical and rainfall factors determining the formation of gully-type debris flows caused by shallow landslides in the Dayi area, Guizhou Province, China. Environ Earth Sci 75:551. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5243-z
Zhang S, Zhang LM (2017) Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China on subsequent long-term debris flow activities in the Epicentral Area. Geomorphology 276:86–103
Zhou W, Tang C, Zhou C (2012) Critical rainfall characteristics for rainfall-induced debris flows in Wenchuan Earthquake affected areas. Adv Water Sci 23(5):650–655 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhu Y, Yu B, Wang T, Feng Y, Qi X, Zhu YB, Ma M (2014) Formation mechanism and prediction research of group-occurring debris flow in Dechang County, Sichuan Province. Sci Technol Eng 14:32–39 (in Chinese with English abstract)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National key research and development program (Grant No. 2018YFC1505405), the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (Grant No. 41521002), and the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Foundation (Grant No. SKLGP2017Z002).
Funding
Yes.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
The study conception and design were contributed by BY. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by LY, MC. The first draft of the manuscript was written by BY, and TWJA commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yu, B., Yang, L., Chang, M. et al. A new prediction model on debris flows caused by runoff mechanism. Environ Earth Sci 80, 26 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09336-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09336-1