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Multivariate modeling of flood characteristics using Vine copulas

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Abstract

Vine copulas provide a great deal of flexibility in modeling complex dependence structures between the variables. In spite of its importance, very limited attention has been paid in hydrology field. In the present study, multivariate modelling of flood characteristics was performed using traditional Archimedean and Elliptical and Vine copulas. In the first phase, flood characteristics [peak (Q), volume (V) and duration (D)] were computed from daily streamflow of 18 stations located in the Euphrates River Basin, Turkey. Based on various model selection criteria, the gamma and Weibull distributions for Q series, the logistic and generalized extreme value distributions for V series and the logistic, log-logistic and generalized extreme value distributions for D series were mostly found to be the best appropriate univariate models. In the second phase, the considered copulas were evaluated for modeling joint distribution of flood Q–V–D triplets at each station. On evaluating their performance by various copula selection methods, graphical procedures and tail dependence analysis, the Vine copulas have been identified as the most valid models. In last phase, conditional and joint return periods of different flood Q, V and D combinations were estimated and the spatial distribution of the return periods were drawn using Geographic Information Systems tool.

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Data availability

The streamflow data used in this study are available from the web page (https://www.dsi.gov.tr/faaliyetler/akim-gozlem-yilliklari) of the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, Turkey (gauge numbers provided in the manuscript).

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (Project No. 115Y673).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Erzurum Technical University, Erzurum, Turkey

    Fatih Tosunoglu & Faruk Gürbüz

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Atatürk University, Erzurum, Turkey

    Muhammet Nuri İspirli

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  1. Fatih Tosunoglu
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  2. Faruk Gürbüz
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  3. Muhammet Nuri İspirli
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Correspondence to Fatih Tosunoglu.

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Tosunoglu, F., Gürbüz, F. & İspirli, M.N. Multivariate modeling of flood characteristics using Vine copulas. Environ Earth Sci 79, 459 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09199-6

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