Abstract
A hydrological characteristic -based methodology for dividing flood seasons into sub-seasons is proposed to make full use of a reservoir’s flood control storage during the flood season via multi-stage flood-limited water levels. The proposed framework is mainly composed of three parts: the selection of indices depicting flood seasonality, the establishment of segmentation methods that can address clustering problems with high-dimensional time series and unknown numbers of clusters, and multi-scheme comparison and rationality analysis. The reasonability and validity of the proposed framework is illustrated through an empirical case study of China’s Panjiakou Reservoir basin. The results indicated that the dynamic fuzzy c-means method with clustering validity function provided more objective and quantitative divisions than other methods, including the Fisher optimal partition. The flood season of the Panjiakou Reservoir basin (June 1–September 30) is divided into three sub-seasons according to the principle of optimal clustering: a pre-flood season (June 1–July 10), a main flood season (July 11–August 20), and a post-flood season(August 21–September 30).
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anquetin S, Braud I, Vannier O et al (2010) Sensitivity of the hydrological response to the variability of rainfall fields and soils for the Gard 2002 flash-flood event. J Hydrol 394:134–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.002
Bender MJ, Hranisavljevic D, Bernardin R, Bianchi R (2002) Dynamic operating rules for water supply reservoirs in La Paz. Water Sci Technol 46:247–254
Bhalme HN, Mooley DA (1980) Large-scale droughts/floods and monsoon circulation. Mon Weather Rev 108:1197–1211
Bolouri-Yazdeli Y, Bozorg Haddad O, Fallah-Mehdipour E, Mariño MA (2014) Evaluation of real-time operation rules in reservoir systems operation. Water Resour Manag 28:715–729. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0510-1
Brekke LD, Maurer EP, Anderson JD et al (2009) Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Water Resour Res 45:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006941
Cunderlik JM, Ouarda TBMJ, Bobée B (2004) On the objective identification of flood seasons. Water Resour Res 40:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002295
Ding W, Zhang C, Yong P et al (2015) An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. Water Resour Res. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015wr017127
Fang CH, Guo SL, Duan YH, Duong D (2010) Two new approaches to dividing flood sub-seasons in flood season using the fractal theory. Chin Sci Bull 55:105–110. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-009-0315-z
Galelli S, Goedbloed A, Schwanenberg D, van Overloop P-J (2014) Optimal real-time operation of multipurpose urban reservoirs: case study in Singapore. J Water Resour Plan Manag 140:511–523. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000342
Hsu NS, Wei CC (2007) A multipurpose reservoir real-time operation model for flood control during typhoon invasion. J Hydrol 336:282–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.001
Hu S, Wang Z, Wang Y et al (2010a) Encounter probability analysis of typhoon and plum rain in the Taihu Lake Basin. Sci China Technol Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-010-4158-2
Hu S, Wang Z, Wang Y, Zhang L (2010b) Total control-based unified allocation model for allowable basin water withdrawal and sewage discharge. Sci China Technol Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-010-0155-8
Hui R, Lund J, Zhao J, Zhao T (2016) Optimal pre-storm flood hedging releases for a single reservoir. Water Resour Manag 30:5113–5129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1472-x
Jain AK, Murty MN (2007) Data clustering: a review. ACM Comput Surv 31(3):264–323. https://doi.org/10.1145/331499.331504
Jiang Z, Sun P, Ji C, Zhou J (2015) Credibility theory based dynamic control bound optimization for reservoir flood limited water level. J Hydrol 529:928–939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.012
Karthe D, Abdullaev I, Boldgiv B et al (2017) Water in central Asia: an integrated assessment for science-based management. Environ Earth Sci 76:690–704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6994-x
Le Ngo L, Madsen H, Rosbjerg D (2007) Simulation and optimisation modelling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam. J Hydrol 336:269–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.003
Li X, Guo S, Liu P, Chen G (2010) Dynamic control of flood limited water level for reservoir operation by considering inflow uncertainty. J Hydrol 391:124–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.011
Liu P, Guo S, Xiong L, Chen L (2010) Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique. Hydrol Sci J 55:540–554. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.481087
Liu P, Li L, Guo S, Xiong L, Zhang W, Zhang J, Xu C-Y (2015) Optimal design of seasonal flood limited water levels and its application for the Three Gorges Reservoir. J Hydrol 527:1045–1053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.055
Ouarda TBMJ, Cunderlik JM, St-Hilaire A et al (2006) Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods. J Hydrol 330:329–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.023
Ouyang S, Zhou J, Li C et al (2015) Optimal design for flood limit water level of cascade reservoirs. Water Resour Manag 29:445–457. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0879-5
Parajka J, Kohnová S, Bálint G et al (2010) Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range. J Hydrol 394:78–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.015
Richter S, Völker J, Borchardt D, Mohaupt V (2013) The water framework directive as an approach for integrated water resources management: results from the experiences in Germany on implementation, and future perspectives. Environ Earth Sci 69:719–728. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2399-7
Schneider RG, Tuytelaars T (2014) Sketch classification and classification-driven analysis using Fisher vectors. ACM Trans Graph. https://doi.org/10.1145/2661229.2661231
Sugiyama M, Idé T, Nakajima S, Sese J (2010) Semi-supervised local Fisher discriminant analysis for dimensionality reduction. Mach Learn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-009-5125-7
Tan QF, Wang X, Liu P et al (2017) The dynamic control bound of flood limited water level considering capacity compensation regulation and flood spatial pattern uncertainty. Water Resour Manag 31:143–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1515-3
Wang Z, Cui T, Wang Y, Yu Z (2012) Flood season division with an improved fuzzy C-mean clustering method in the Taihu lake basin in China. Procedia Eng 28:66–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2012.01.684
Wang H, Xiao W, Wang J et al (2016) The impact of climate change on the duration and division of flood season in the Fenhe River Basin, China. Water (Switz). https://doi.org/10.3390/w8030105
Wang Z, Wu J, Cheng L et al (2018) Regional flood risk assessment via coupled fuzzy c-means clustering methods: an empirical analysis from China’s Huaihe River Basin. Nat Hazards 93:803–822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3325-9
Yan B, Guo S, Chen L (2014) Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28:359–368. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0756-4
Yun R, Singh VP (2008) Multiple duration limited water level and dynamic limited water level for flood control, with implications on water supply. J Hydrol 354:160–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.003
Zhang Y, Wang G, Peng Y, Zhou H (2011) Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error. Sci China Technol Sci 54:1888–1893. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-011-4392-2
Zhou Y, Guo S, Liu P, Xu C (2014) Joint operation and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels for mixed cascade reservoir systems. J Hydrol 519:248–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.029
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission of Ministry of Water Resources of China for providing the original data. This study was financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (no. 2017YFC0403504) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants nos. 51479119 and 51579064. The authors would also like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which significantly improved the quality of this article.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
Some of the data used in this paper are non-public and can be requested from the corresponding author via email.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This article is a part of a Topical Collection in Environmental Earth Sciences on Climate Effects on Water Resources, edited by Drs. Zongzhi Wang and Yanqing Lian.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jiang, H., Wang, Z., Ye, A. et al. Hydrological characteristic-based methodology for dividing flood seasons: an empirical analysis from China. Environ Earth Sci 78, 399 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8392-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8392-z