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Predictive models to estimate sediment volumes deposited by debris flows (Vargas state, Venezuela): an adjustment of multivariate statistical techniques

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Abstract

Debris flows are a moving mass composed from water and solids mixture, mainly in form of sediments, with a high destructive power. The debris volume that is transported and deposited outside the drainage system of a watershed has a great importance in the definition of its hydrological response. The objective of this work was to propose predictive models generated through the adjustment of multivariate statistical techniques, to estimate the sediment volumes deposited by debris flows. Measurements and calculations of the morphometric parameters of the watersheds and drainage networks have been performed with the support of GIS software and spreadsheets. The relationships between morphometric parameters and sediment volumes have been analyzed by applying multivariate statistical techniques such as linear correlation analysis. The principal component analysis and multiple linear regression analysis have been performed with principal components, which allowed the generation of predictive models. From the predictive models generated for the sediment volumes deposited by the debris flow event of December 1999, raised results closer to reality with better Pearson’s correlation coefficients from those related to the gradient and shape of the watershed relief and extension of the drainage network morphometric variables. For the estimation of deposited sediment volumes due pre- and post-1999 event conditions, only the predictive models generated with the gradient and shape of the watershed relief variable have had good results.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are very grateful to the Fondo para el Desarrollo de la Investigación (FONDEIN) of the Universidad Pedagógica Experimental Libertador – Instituto Pedagógico de Caracas (UPEL-IPC) (Caracas, Venezuela), for the financial support of the research project from which this paper has been derived. We would like also to thank the editorial handling, Rachid Seqqat and two anonymous reviewers for the significant improvement of an earlier version of this article.

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  1. Departamento de Construcciones Civiles, Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas, Físicas y Químicas, Universidad Técnica de Manabí, 130105, Portoviejo, provincia de Manabí, Ecuador

    Williams Méndez & Kervin Chunga

  2. Centro de Investigación Estudios del Medio Físico Venezolano, Instituto Pedagógico de Caracas, Universidad Pedagógica Experimental Libertador, El Paraíso, Caracas, 1020, Distrito Capital, Venezuela

    Williams Méndez

  3. Departamento de Procesos y Sistemas, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Sartenejas, Baruta, 1080, estado Miranda, Venezuela

    José Córdova

  4. Departamento de Cómputo Científico y Estadística, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Sartenejas, Baruta, 1080, estado Miranda, Venezuela

    Lelys Bravo de Guenni

  5. Departamento de Ingeniería Agrícola, Facultad de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Técnica de Manabí, 13132, Lodana, provincia de Manabí, Ecuador

    Henry Pacheco

  6. Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Quito, Ecuador

    Theofilos Toulkeridis

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Méndez, W., Córdova, J., de Guenni, L.B. et al. Predictive models to estimate sediment volumes deposited by debris flows (Vargas state, Venezuela): an adjustment of multivariate statistical techniques. Environ Earth Sci 78, 350 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8346-5

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