Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios
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The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.
KeywordsStreamflow Groundwater recharge SWAT Dyna-CLUE SDSM Uncertainty analysis Sensitivity analysis Remote sensing
The authors thank Irrigation and Waterways Directorate, Government of West Bengal, India, for providing necessary support for this research work. The authors also thank Regional Director, Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) for providing necessary data for this research work. The authors also thank the India Meteorological Department for providing weather data for this research work. The author (AK) thanks to the Chairman of the CGWB for his encouragement and permission to publish the paper.
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Conflict of interest
All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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