Skip to main content

Impacts of surface and groundwater variability response to future climate change scenarios in a large Mediterranean watershed

Environmental Earth Sciences volume 76, Article number: 385 (2017) Cite this article

Abstract

The objective of this research was to better understand the dynamics of surface–groundwater interactions in a large Mediterranean watershed (Evrotas River Basin) and to improve the seasonal forecasting of a potential hydrological drought under future climate change scenarios. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with the three-dimensional groundwater flow Princeton Transport Code (PTC) model. The combined models are applied to the alluvial plain of Evrotas watershed in Greece by considering the interaction between the stream network and the aquifer to better spatially represent feedback fluxes within the surface and groundwater domains. Model simulation (2007–2011) was in good agreement with field observations demonstrating that this integrated modeling approach provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Finally, the integrated SWAT-PTC model was used to study the impact of future climate change on surface and groundwater resources of the area under three different climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the study area is very sensitive to potential future climate changes. Upstream reaches display a loss of surface water to underlying groundwater systems whereas downstream the main river receives recharge from groundwater as the water table approached the surface topography. The low flow characterization for the current situation shows that a large part of the stream network will be too dry to accommodate the development of a viable aquatic ecological community throughout the years. In dry periods, the amount of water that is supplied to the aquifer is 40.9% less than the amount of water that is supplied under current climate conditions highlighting the need for new management strategies that must be implemented in order to avoid setbacks in the allocation of water resources in the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

References

  • Abbott M, Bathurst J, Cunge J, Oconnell P, Rasmussen J (1986) An introduction to the European hydrological system—Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, She. 1. History and philosophy of a physically-based, distributed modeling system. J Hydrol 87:45–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aivalioti M, Karatzas G (2006) Modeling the flow and leachate transport in the vadose and saturated zone—a field application. Environ Model Assess 11(1):81–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bencala K (1984) Interactions of solutes and streambed sediment. 2. A dynamic analysis of coupled hydrologic and chemical processes that determine solute transport. Water Resour Res 20:1804–1814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunner P, Simmons C (2012) HydroGeoSphere: a fully integrated, physically based hydrological model. Ground Water 50(2):170–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cancelliere A, Di Mauro G, Bonaccorso B, Rossi G (2007) Stochastic forecasting of drought indices. In: Rossi G et al (eds) Methods and tool for drought analysis and managment. Springer, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Dokou Z, Pinder G (2011) Extension and field application of an integrated DNAPL source identification algorithm that utilizes stochastic modeling and a Kalman filter. J Hydrol 398(3–4):277–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2011) The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture (SOLAW)—Managing systems at risk. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and London, Earthscan, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Gallart F, Prat N, Brito D, Garc´ıa-Roger E, De Girolamo AM, Barbera GG, Latron J, Llorens JP, Lo Porto A, Neves R, Tzoraki O, Querner EP, Quinonero JM, Rieradevall M, Tournoud MG, Nikolaidis NP, Froebrich J (2011) Using qualitative flow states for characterizing regimes of temporary streams: the “Aquatic States”. Poster presented at IUGG conference, Melbourne July 2011, session HW13

  • Gamvroudis C, Nikolaidis N, Tzoraki O, Papadoulakis V, Karalemas N (2015) Water and sediment transport modeling of a large temporary river basin in Greece. Sci Total Environ 508:354–365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • García-Ruiz J, López-Moreno I, Vicente-Serrano S, Lasanta–Martínez T, Beguería S (2011) Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario. Earth Sci Rev 105(3–4):121–139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Graham D, Butts M (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE. In: Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds) Watershed models, pp 245–272, CRC Press

  • Guzman J, Moriasi D, Gowda P, Steiner J, Starks P, Arnold J, Srinivasan R (2015) A model integration framework for linking SWAT and MODFLOW. Environ Model Softw 73:103–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D (2001) A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77:61–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones J, Sudicky E, McLaren R (2008) Application of a fully-integrated surface–subsurface flow model at the watershed-scale: a case study. Water Resour Res 44

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

  • IPCC (2007) The physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • Karatzas G, Dokou Z (2015) Optimal management of saltwater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of Malia, Crete (Greece), using particle swarm optimization. Hydrogeol J 23(6):1181–1194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kjellström E, Bärring L, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jones C, Samuelsson P, Rummukainen M, Ullerstig A, Willén U, Wyser K (2005) A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). SMHI Reports Meteorology and Climatology No. 108, SMHI, SE-60176. Norrköping, Sweden, p 54

    Google Scholar 

  • Kollet S, Maxwell R (2006) Integrated surface-groundwater flow modeling: a freesurface overland flow boundary condition in a parallel groundwater flow model. Adv Water Resour 29:945–958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krause S, Hannah D, Fleckenstein J (2009) Hyporheic hydrology: interactions at the groundwater–surface water interface Preface. Hydrol Process 23:2103–2107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Livada I, Assimakopoulos VD (2007) Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in greece using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Theor Appl Climatol 89:143–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Tzabiras J (2007) Evaluation of climate change on drought impulses in Thessaly. Greece. Eur. Water 17(18):17–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Malagò A, Efsthathiou D, Bouraoui F, Nikolaidis N, Franchini F, Bidoglio G, Kritsotakis M (2016) Regional scale hydrologic modeling of a karst-dominant geomorphology: the case study of the Island of Crete. J Hydrol (in Press). Accepted Manuscript

  • McKee T, Doesken N, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. Eighth conference on applied climatology, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim CA, pp 179–186

  • Nerantzaki S, Giannakis G, Efstathiou D, Nikolaidis N, Sibetheros I, Karatzas G, Zacharias I (2015) Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed. Science of The Total Environment Volume 538, 15 December 2015, pp 288–297

  • Nikolaidis NP, Bouraoui F, Bidoglio G (2013) Hydrologic and geochemical modeling of a karstic Mediterranean watershed. J Hydrol 477:129–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panday S, Huyakorn P (2004) A fully coupled physically-based spatially-distributed model for evaluating surface/subsurface flow. Adv Water Resour 27:361–382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinder G, Gray W (1977) Finite element simulation in surface and subsurface hydrology. Academic, New York, p 295

    Google Scholar 

  • Sophocleous M, Koelliker J, Govindaraju R, Birdie T, Ramireddygari S, Perkins S (1999) Integrated numerical modeling for basin-wide water management: the case of the Rattlesnake Creek Basin in South-Central Kansas. J Hydrol 214:179–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tian Y, Zheng Yi, Wu B, Wu X, Liu J, Zheng C (2015) Modeling surface water–groundwater interaction in arid and semi-arid regions with intensive agriculture Environmental Modelling & Software Volume 63, January 2015, Pages 170–184

  • Tzoraki O, Cooper D, Kjeldsen T, Nikolaidis N, Gamvroudis C, Froebrich J, Querner E, Gallart F, Karalemas N (2013) Flood generation and classification of a semi-arid intermittent flow watershed: Evrotas river. International Journal of River Basin Management 11(1):77–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Meijgaard E, van Ulft L, van de Berg W, Bosveld F, van den Hurk B, Lenderink G, Siebesma A (2008) The KNMI regional atmospheric climate model, version 2.1, KNMI Tech. Rep. 302, De Bilt, Netherlands

  • Vasiliades L, Loukas A, Patsonas G (2009) Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:879–894

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilkinson K, Pope R (2003) Quaternary alluviation and archaeology in the Evrotas Valley, southern Greece. In: Howard AJ, Macklin MG, Passmore D (eds) Alluvial archaeology in Europe, pp 187–202. http://www.ensembles-eu.org

Download references

Acknowledgements

Funding for this work was provided by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2011) under Grant Agreement 211732 (MIRAGE project).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100, Chania, Greece

    C. Gamvroudis, Z. Dokou, N. P. Nikolaidis & G. P. Karatzas

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269-2037, USA

    Z. Dokou

Authors
  1. C. Gamvroudis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Z. Dokou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. N. P. Nikolaidis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. G. P. Karatzas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to C. Gamvroudis.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gamvroudis, C., Dokou, Z., Nikolaidis, N.P. et al. Impacts of surface and groundwater variability response to future climate change scenarios in a large Mediterranean watershed. Environ Earth Sci 76, 385 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6721-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6721-7

Keywords

  • Surface–groundwater interaction
  • SWAT
  • PTC
  • Climate change
  • River desiccation
  • Hydrologic drought