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Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

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Abstract

In decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to perform a PPP and stakeholders’ involvement in a decision-making process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s/n, 46022, Valencia, Spain

    Carlos Llopis-Albert

  2. Department of Business Organization, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s/n, 46022, Valencia, Spain

    Daniel Palacios-Marqués

  3. Department of Management Control and Information Systems, University of Chile, Av. Diagonal Paraguay 257, 8330015, Santiago, Chile

    José M. Merigó

  4. Visiting Distinguished Scientist, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

    José M. Merigó

Authors
  1. Carlos Llopis-Albert
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  2. Daniel Palacios-Marqués
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  3. José M. Merigó
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Correspondence to Carlos Llopis-Albert.

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Llopis-Albert, C., Palacios-Marqués, D. & Merigó, J.M. Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environ Earth Sci 75, 1320 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-y

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