Environmental Earth Sciences

, 75:1238 | Cite as

Analysis of the Drava and Danube rivers floods in Osijek (Croatia) and possibility of their coincidence

  • Lidija TadićEmail author
  • Ognjen Bonacci
  • Tamara Dadić
Original Article


The city of Osijek is situated on the right bank of the Drava River about 20 km away from its confluence with the Danube River. This good position was a prerequisite for its development, but throughout history, many floods caused by the Drava and Danube rivers have endangered Osijek and its citizens. Significant shortening of the river length by cutting meanders, river regulation structures together with the reduction in the natural floodplain were done during the nineteenth century. In the period between 1921 and 2013, there were 31 maximum annual water levels so high that flood warning systems were declared. The results of proposed hydrological analysis prove the presences of dominant Danube River backwater influences on flood occurrence in Osijek, especially in the last 40 years due to the decreasing trend of Drava River water levels and discharges and increasing trend of the Danube River water levels and discharges. The flood probability analysis shows (using a copula function) a very small probability of coincidence of maximum water levels in the Drava and the Danube, which is very important information for future flood risk management.


Flood Drava River Danube River Coincidence Copula function 


  1. Kundzewicz ZW et al (2005) Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow/Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annual. Hydrolog Sci J 50(5):797–810. doi: 10.1623/hysj.2005.50.5.797
  2. Zhang N et al (2013) Flood coincidence probability analysis for the middle and lower Weihe River and its tributaries based on the LHS method. In: Yang Y (ed) Advances in earth and environmental sciences. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the EnvironmentGoogle Scholar
  3. Benito G, Diez-Herrero A, Fernandez de Villalta M (2003) Magnitude and frequency of flooding in the Tagus basin (Central Spain) over the last millennium. Clim Change 58(1):171–192. doi: 10.1023/A:1023417102053 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Biondić D (1999) Erozija korita rijeke Drave. Građevinar 51(5):321–328Google Scholar
  5. Bonacci O (2010) Analiza nizova srednjih godišnjih temperatura zraka u Hrvatskoj. Građevinar 62(9):781–791Google Scholar
  6. Bonacci O, Oskoruš D (2010) The changes in the lower Drava River water level, discharge and suspended sediment regime. Environ Earth Sci 59(8):1661–1670. doi: 10.1007/s12665-009-0148-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bonacci O, Tadić Z, Trninić D (1992) Effects of dams and reservoirs on the hydrological characteristics of the Drava River. Regul River 7(4):349–357. doi: 10.1023/A:1023417102053 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Brazdil R, Kundzewicz ZW, Benito G (2006) Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe. Hydrolog Sci J 51(5):739–764. doi: 10.1623/hysj.51.5.739 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Brookes A (1987) The distribution and management of channelized streams in Denmark. Regul River 1(1):3–16. doi: 10.1002/rrr.3450010103 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chen L et al (2012) Flood coincidence risk analysis using multivariate copula functions. J Hydrol Eng 17(6):742–755. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000504 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Karmakar S, Simonovic SP (2007) Flood frequency analysis using copula with mixed marginal distributions. Project Report No: 055, University of Western Ontario, Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringGoogle Scholar
  12. Klein B et al (2010) Probability analysis of hydrological loads for the design of flood control systems using copulas. J Hydrol Eng 15(5):360–369. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000204 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kundzewicz ZW (2005) Intense precipitation and high river flows in Europe—observations and projections. Acta Geophys Polonica 53(4):385–400Google Scholar
  14. Kundzewicz ZW et al (2013) Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrolog Sci J 59(1):1–28. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2013.857411 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Middelkoop H et al (2001) Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Clim Change 49(1–2):105–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Miller JR, Russell GL (1992) The impact of global warming in river runoff. J Geophys Res 97:2757–2764. doi: 10.1029/91JD01700 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Milly PCD et al (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415:514–517CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Mitkova V (2006) Analysis of the Danube coincidence of the discharge waves of Danube and Morava rivers. In: Bruk S, Petković T (eds) Proceedings of the 23rd Conference of the Danube countries on the hydrological forecasting and hydrological bases of water management. National Committee of Serbia for the IHPU, Belgrade, pp 1–9Google Scholar
  19. Plevnik B (1987) Stari Osijek. Matica Hrvatska ogranak OsijekGoogle Scholar
  20. Prohaska S, Ilić A (2010) Coincidence of flood flow of the Danube River and its tributaries. In: Brilly M (ed) Hydrological processes of the Danube River Basin, pp 175–226Google Scholar
  21. Prohaska S, Ilić A, Tripković V (2012) Methodology for assessing multiple-coincidence of flood wave peaks in complex river systems. Water Res Manag 2(1):45–60Google Scholar
  22. Sraj M, Bezak N, Brilly M (2015) Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the copula function: a case study of the Litija station on the Sava River. Hydrol Process 29(2):225–238. doi: 10.1002/rrr.3450010103 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Tadić L, Bonacci O, Dadić T (2014) Dynamics of the Kopački Rit (Croatia) wetland floodplain water regime. Environ Earth Sci 71(8):3559–3570. doi: 10.1007/s12665-013-2747-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Volpi E, Fiori A (2012) Design event in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis. Hydrolog Sci J 57(8):1506–1515. doi: 10.1007/s12665-009-0148-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wachter K (2006) Floods and climate change study about 1000 years of Danube floods in Austria. In: Bruk S, Petković T (eds) Proceedings of the 23rd conference of the Danube countries on the hydrological forecasting and hydrological bases of water management. National Committee of Serbia for the IHPU, Belgrade, pp 21–29Google Scholar
  26. Wanner H et al (2004) Dynamic and socioeconomic aspects of historical floods in Central Europe. Erdkunde 58(1):1–16. doi: 10.3112/erdkunde.2004.01.01 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Civil EngineeringUniversity of OsijekOsijekCroatia
  2. 2.Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and GeodesyUniversity of SplitSplitCroatia

Personalised recommendations