Skip to main content

The future Aral Sea: hope and despair

Environmental Earth Sciences volume 75, Article number: 844 (2016) Cite this article

Abstract

The Aral Sea in 1960 was a huge brackish water lake (4th in the world in surface area) lying amidst the deserts of Central Asia. The sea supported a major fishery and functioned as a key regional transportation route. Since 1960, the Aral has undergone rapid desiccation and salinization, overwhelmingly the result of unsustainable expansion of irrigation that dried up its two tributary rivers the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and severely damaged their deltas. The desiccation of the Aral Sea has had severe negative impacts, including, among others, the demise of commercial fishing, devastation of the floral and faunal biodiversity of the native ecosystems of the Syr and Amu deltas, and increased frequency and strength of salt/dust storms. However, efforts have been and are being made to partially restore the sea’s hydrology along with its biodiversity, and economic value. The northern part of the Aral has been separated from the southern part by a dike and dam, leading to a level rise and lower salinity. This allowed native fishes to return from the rivers and revitalized the fishing industry. Partial preservation of the Western Basin of the southern Aral Sea may be possible, but these plans need much further environmental and economic analysis. This paper, mainly utilizing hydrologic and other data as input to spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel)-based hydrologic and salinity models, examines the current efforts to restore the Aral and looks at several future scenarios of the Sea. It also delineates the most important lessons of the Aral Sea’s drying.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Notes

  1. References to the Amu and Syr often refer to them as the Amu Dar’ya River and Syr Dar,’a River. This is redundant as dar’ya in the Turkic languages of Central Asia means river. However, this is an accepted practice.

  2. Aral Sea levels are officially measured above this zero that is about 20 cm above ocean level.

  3. Water balance assumptions: surface precipitation (P) = 120 mm/year; surface evaporation (E) = 960; net groundwater inflow (GW) = 0.1 km3 P and E are taken from Shivareva et al. (1998) and GW is the author’s.estimate.

  4. The level was determined from comparison of MODIS 250 m resolution satellite imagery and the Soviet 1:500,000 bathymetric map of the Aral Sea. The area was calculated by outlining the Western Basin on the image, using Image J software (freeware available from the US National Institutes of Health) to count the pixels enclosed and then multiplying the number of pixels by 250 which is the pixel resolution in km2 of this MODIS imagery.

References

  • Abdullaev I, Rakhmatullaev S (2015) Transformation of water management in Central Asia: from State-centric, hydraulic mission to socio-political control. Environ Earth Sci 73(2):849–861. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2879-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bortnik V, Chistyaevaya S (eds) (1990) Hydrometeorology and hydrochemistry of the seas of the USSR, vol. VII: Aral Sea. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad (in Russian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Choi C (2015) Asia’s rapidly shrinking glaciers could have ripple effect. Livescience, August 17. http://www.livescience.com/51876-asia-glaciers-rapidly-shrinking.html). Accessed 12 Jan 2016

  • Dukhovny V, Sokolov V, Ziganshina D (2013) Integrated water resources management in Central Asia, as a way of survival in conditions of water scarcity. Quatern Int 311:181–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ermakhanov Z, Plotnikov I, Aladin N, Micklin P (2012) Changes in the Aral Sea ichthyofauna and fishery during the period of ecological crisis. Lakes Reserv Res Manag 17:3–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groll M, Opp C, Kulmatov R, Ikramova M, Normatov I (2015) Water quality, potential conflicts and solutions—an upstream downstream analysis of the transnational Zarafshan River (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan). Environ Earth Sci 73(2):743–763. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2988-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Indoitu R, Kozhoridze K, Batyrbaeva M, Vitkovskaya I, Orlovsky N, Blumberg D, Orlovsky L (2015) Dust emission and environmental changes in the dried bottom of the Aral Sea. Aeolian Res 17:101–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karthe D, Chalov S, Borchardt D (2015) Water resources and their management in Central Asia in the early 21st Century: status, challenges and future prospects. Environ Earth Sci 73(2):487–499. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3789-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krivinogov S (2014) Changes of the Aral Sea level. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 77–111

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Krivonogov S (2015) The Fickle Aral. Science in Siberia. Publication of the Siberian Section of the Russian Academy of Sciences (In Russian). http://www.sbras.info/articles/sciencestruct/izmenchivyi-aral. Accessed 29 Nov 2015

  • L’vovich M, Tsigel’naya I (1978) Management of the Aral Sea water balance. Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1:42–54 (in Russian)

  • Lioubimtseva E (2015) A multi-scale assessment of human vulnerability to climate change in the Aral Sea Basin. Environ Earth Sci 73(2):719–729. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3104-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2000) Managing water in Central Asia. The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2007) The Aral Sea disaster. In: Raymond Jeanloz (eds) Annual review of earth and planetary sciences, Annual Reviews, Palo Alto 35:47–72. doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140120

  • Micklin P (2010) The past, present, and future Aral Sea. Lakes Reserv Res Manag 15:193–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014a) Aral Sea basin water resources and the changing Aral water balance. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 111–137

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014b) Introduction. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 1–11

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014c) Introduction to the Aral Sea and its Region. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 15–40

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014d) Irrigation. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 207–232

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014e) Aral Sea Basin water resources and the changing Aral water balance. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 111–137

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014f) Efforts to revive the Aral Sea. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 361–380

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014g) The Siberian Water Transfer Schemes. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 381–404

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P (2014h) Summary and Conclusions. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 3429–3444

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Micklin P, Aladin N (2008) Reclaiming the Aral Sea. Sci Am 98(4):64–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Plotnikov I, Aladin N, Ermakhanov Z, Zhakova L (2014a) Biological dynamics of the Aral Sea before its modern decline (1900–1960), pp 41–47. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 131–171

    Google Scholar 

  • Plotnikov I, Aladin V, Ermakhanov Z, Zhakova L (2014b) The new aquatic biology of the Aral Sea. In: Micklin P, Aladin N, Plotnikov I (eds) The Aral Sea: the devastation and partial rehabilitation of a Great lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 131–171

    Google Scholar 

  • Shivareva S, Ponenkova Y, Smerdov B (1998) “Modeling the level of the Aral Sea,” pp 5–10. In: Problems of the Aral Sea Basin, research, projects, proposals. Chinor ENK, Tashkent (in Russian)

  • Thevs N, Ovezmuradov K, Zanjani LV, Zerbe S (2015) Water consumption of agriculture and natural ecosystems at the Amu Darya in Lebap Province, Turkmenistan. Environ Earth Sci 73(2):731–741. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3084-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toman M, Plotnikov I, Aladin N, Micklin P, Ermakhanov Z (2015) Biodiversity, the present ecological state of the Aral Sea and its impact on future development. Acta Biologica Slovinica 58:45–59

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2001) Project appraisal document on a proposed loan in the amount of US $64.5 Million to the Republic of Kazakhstan for the Syr Darya Control and Northern Aral Sea phase-1 project, report No. 22190-KZ, 98 pages including annexes and maps (PDF fromat)

  • World Bank (2014) Project information document (PID), concept stage, Syr Darya Control and Northern Aral Sea Project, phase 2 (P15200), report No.: PIDC12697, Sep 24, 2014, pp 9

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, 49008, USA

    Philip Micklin

Authors
  1. Philip Micklin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Philip Micklin.

Additional information

This article is part of a Topical Collection in Environmental Earth Sciences on ‘‘Water in Central Asia’’, guest edited by Daniel Karthe, Iskandar Abdullaev, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Dietrich Borchardt, Sergey Chalov, Jerker Jarsjö, Lanhai Li and Jeff Nittrouer.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Micklin, P. The future Aral Sea: hope and despair. Environ Earth Sci 75, 844 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5614-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5614-5

Keywords

  • Aral Sea
  • Irrigation
  • Water balance models
  • Amu
  • Syr
  • Small Aral Sea
  • Large Aral Sea