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Trends analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in groundwater with considering the autocorrelation coefficients in west of Lake Urmia, Iran

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Abstract

Lake Urmia is known as one of the largest saltwater lakes on earth. In the past decade, the average water level of this lake has decreased significantly and this has endangered its unique ecosystem. As such, the water level and surrounding groundwater level of Lake Urmia are related together. Therefore, investigating the changes in the quality and quantity of groundwater occupies a very important status in planning and managing the water resources in the region. Most studies conducted to analyze time series trends have made use of common non-parametric tests of Mann–Kendall or Spearman’s Rho tests, which do not pay enough attention to the impact of autocorrelation on this domain. Verily, autocorrelation coefficients may leave significant impacts on the trend of qualitative and quantitative changes in groundwater resources. Regarding the present study, quantitative and qualitative parameters of groundwater were analyzed using the common and modified Mann–Kendall test with considering the impact of autocorrelation coefficients. In addition, the values of trend slope were estimated using the Theil–Sen estimator. The results indicated that considering the significant autocorrelation coefficients was essential in assessing time series trend. In addition, regarding the modified Mann–Kendall test as well as the analysis of temporal changes in qualitative parameters of groundwater, it was indicated that values of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), NA and %NA had ascending trends and the other values had decreasing trends thereof. Regarding the spatial trend, it was found that the parameters of Na, EC, Ca, Mg, anions and cations decreased near Urmia City.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

    Babak Amirataee & Kamran Zeinalzadeh

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  1. Babak Amirataee
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  2. Kamran Zeinalzadeh
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Correspondence to Babak Amirataee.

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Amirataee, B., Zeinalzadeh, K. Trends analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in groundwater with considering the autocorrelation coefficients in west of Lake Urmia, Iran. Environ Earth Sci 75, 371 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4917-2

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