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Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

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Abstract

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their valuable comments, which improved the quality of the manuscript. We also thank to Dr. H. Kross and S.L. Manuela for fruitful discussions on the early versions of the manuscript. This work has been supported by the Marie Curie Research and Training Network “Mountain Risks” funded by the European Commission (2007–2010, Contract MCRTN-35098).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy, Research and Innovation, Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Veritasveien 1, 1363, Høvik, Norway

    Byron Quan Luna

  2. Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (IRSM-ASCR), V Holešovičkách 41, 182 09, Prague, Czechia

    Jan Blahut

  3. Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi, 2121, Aglantzia (Nicosia), Cyprus

    Corrado Camera

  4. Faculty of Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, PO Box 6, 7500 AA, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Cees van Westen & Victor Jetten

  5. Department of Earth Sciences “Ardito Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Mangiagalli 34, 20133, Milan, Italy

    Tiziana Apuani

  6. Institute for the Dynamic of Environmental Processes, National Research Council (CNR-IDPA), Piazza della Scienza 1, 20126, Milan, Italy

    Simone Sterlacchini

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  1. Byron Quan Luna
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Correspondence to Jan Blahut.

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Quan Luna, B., Blahut, J., Camera, C. et al. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy. Environ Earth Sci 72, 645–661 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2986-7

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