Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Regional analysis of streamflow drought: a case study in southwestern Iran

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Environmental Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Droughts are complex natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economical are the most distinguished types. Hydrological drought includes streamflow and groundwater droughts. In this paper, streamflow drought was analyzed using the method of truncation level (at 70 % level) by daily discharges at 54 stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series of drought deficit volume and duration. 35 factors such as physiographic, climatic, geologic and vegetation were studied to carry out the regional analysis. According to conclusions of factor analysis, the six most effective factors include watershed area, the sum rain from December to February, the percentage of area with NDVI <0.1, the percentage of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation, explained 89.2 % of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. The suitable multivariate regression models were ascertained and evaluated for hydrological drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of models was 0.01. The conclusion showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor that has a high correlation with drought deficit volume. Moreover, drought duration was not a suitable index for regional analysis.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles and news from researchers in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

References

  • Chalise SR, Kansakar SR, Rees G, Croker K, Zaidman M (2003) Management of water resources and low flow estimation for the Himalayan basins of Nepal. J Hydrology 282:25–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clausen B, Pearson CP (1995) Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum stream flow drought. J Hydrology 173:111–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croke BFW, Merritt WS, Jakeman AJ (2004) A dynamic model for predicting hydrologic response to land cover changes in gauged and ungauged catchments. J Hydrology 291:115–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Demuth S, Heinrich B (1997) Temporal and spatial behavior of drought in southern Germany. In: Gustard A, Blazkova S, Brilly M, Demuth S, Dixon J, van Lanen H, Llasat C, Mkhandi S, Servat E (eds) 2002-Regional hydrology: concepts and models for sustainable water resource management, vol 246. IAHS, Wallingford, pp 151–157

  • Demuth S, Kulls C (1997) Probability analysis and regional aspects of drought in southern Germany. In: Rosbjerg D, Boutayeb NE Gustard A, Kundzewicz ZW, Rasmussen P (eds) Sustainability of water resource under increasing uncertainty, vol 240. IAHS, Wallingford, pp 97–104

  • Demuth S, Stahl K (2001) ARIDE—assessment of the regional impact of droughts in Europe. Insitute of Hydrology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Dracup JA, Lee KS, Paulson EG (1980) On the definition of droughts. J Water Resour Res 16:297–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Draper N, Smith H (1981) Applied regression analysis, 2nd edn. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • England K, Hisdal H, Frigessi A (2004) Practical extreme value modeling hydrological flood and drought: a case study. J Extremes 7:5–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FEMA (1995) National mitigation strategy. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC

  • Fiorillo F, Guadagn FM (2012) Long karst spring discharge time series and droughts occurrence in Southern Italy. Environ Earth Sci 65:2273–2283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fleig AK, Tallaksen LM, Hisdal H, Demuth S (2006) A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics. J Hydr Earth Sys Sci 10:535–552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garcia-Martino AR, Scatena FN, Warner GS, Civco DL (1996) Statistical low-flow estimation using GIS analysis in humid montane regions in Puerto Rico. Water Resour Bull 32:1259–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami M, O’Connor KM, Bhattarai KP (2007) Development of regionalization procedures using a multi-model approach for flow simulation in an ungauged catchments. J Hydr 333:517–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haan CT (1977) Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University Press, Ames

    Google Scholar 

  • Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier Publishers, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Henriques AG, Santos MJJ (1999) Regional drought distribution model. Phys Chem Earth PT B 24:19–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Hisdal H, Tallaksen LM (2000) Drought event definition, ARIDE Technical Report No. 6, University of Oslo, Norway

  • Hisdal H, Tallaksen LM (2003) Estimation of regional, meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics: a case study for Denmark. J Hydr 281:230–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hisdal H, Stahl K, Tallaksen LM, Demuth S (2001) Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent? Int J Climatol 21:317–333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hisdal H, Tallaksen LM, Frigessi A (2002) Handling non-extreme events in value modeling of droughts. In: Van Lanen H, Demuth S (eds) FRIEND 2002-Regional hydrology: bridging the gap between research and practice, vol 274. IAHS, Wallingford, pp 181–188

  • Hocking RR (1976) The analysis and selection of variables in linear regression. Biometrics 32:258–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jakubowski W, Radczuk L (2004) Estimation of hydrological drought characteristics NIZOWKA2003—software manual, on accompanying CD to: hydrological drought—processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. In: Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ (eds) Developments in water science, vol 48. Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam

  • Jamab Engineering Consultants Company (2000) The report of Iran comprehensive water plan. Iran Water Resources Management Organization publication (in Persian)

  • Johnson NL (1949) Systems of frequency curves generated by methods of translation. J Biometrika 36:149–176

    Google Scholar 

  • Kjeldsen RT, Lundrof A, Rosbjerg D (2000) Use of a two-component exponential distribution in partial duration modeling of hydrological drought in Zimbabwean rivers. Hydr Sci J 45:285–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Longobardi A, Villani P (2008) Baseflow index regionalization analysis in a Mediterranean area and data scarcity context: role of the catchment permeability index. J Hydr 355:63–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manly BFJ (1988) Multivariate statistical methods: a primer. Chapman and Hall Ltd., London

    Google Scholar 

  • Meigh J, Tate E, McCarteney M (2002) Methods for identifying and monitoring river flow drought in southern Africa. In: Van Lanen H, Demuth S (eds) FRIEND 2002-Regional hydrology: bridging the gap between research and practice, vol 274. IAHS, Wallingford, pp 181–188

  • Mosley MP, Pearson CP (1997) Floods and droughts: the New Zealand experience, vol VII. New Zealand Hydrological Society, Inc, Wellington

  • Nathan RJ, McMahon TA (1990) Identification of homogeneous regions for the purpose of regionalization. J Hydr 121:217–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nutzmann G, Mey S (2007) Model-based estimation of runoff changes in a small lowland watershed of north-eastern Germany. J Hydr 334:467–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pandey RP, Mishra SK, Singh R, Ramasastri KS (2008) Streamflow drought severity analysis of Betwa river system (India). Water Res Manage 22:1127–1141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Radic Z, Mihailovic V (2005) Development of monitoring system for Serbia hydrological droughts analysis—Serbia Water National Program Hydrological bases of water resources and international cooperation. NPV, 21A

  • Saghafian B, Davtalab R (2007) Mapping snow characteristics based on snow observation probability. Int J Climatol 27:1277–1286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen Z (1980) Regional drought and flood frequency analysis: theoretical consideration. J Hydr 46:265–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stahl K (2001) Hydrological drought: a study across Europe. PhD Thesis, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany

  • Tabachnick BG, Fidell LS (2001) Using multivariate statistics. Allyn and Bacon, Boston ( Chapter 11 covers discriminant analysis)

  • Tallaksen LM (2000) Streamflow drought frequency analysis. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp 103–117

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Tallaksen LM (2004) Background Information NIZOWKA. In: Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ (eds) Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Development in water science, vol 48. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam

  • Tallaksen LM, Hisdal H (1997) Regional analysis of extreme streamflow drought duration and deficit volume. In: Gustard A, Blazkova S, Brilly M, Demuth S, Dixon J, van Lanen, H, Llasat C, Mkhandi S, Servat E (eds) FRIEND’97-Regional hydrology: concepts and models for sustainable water resource management. IAHS Publication no. 141–150, Wallingford

  • Tallaksen LM, Fleig A, Morawietz M (2004) Estimation of hydrological drought characteristics NIZOWKA 2003. Software Manual In: Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ (eds) Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Development in water science, vol 48. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam

  • Tokarczyk T, Dubicki A, Kupczyk E, Suligowski R (2005) Assessment of drought potential risk for upper and middle Odra watershed. Geophys Res Abs 7:63–73

    Google Scholar 

  • Vogt JV, Somma F, Bradford RB, Bromley J, Niemeyer S, Rees G, Viau AA (2000) Conclusions and recommendations. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp 293–314

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA, Buchanan-Smith M (2005) Drought as hazard: understanding the natural and social context. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought and water crises science, technology, and management issues. CRC press Taylor & Francis group, New York, pp 3–32

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int 10:111–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu J, Yang D, Yi Y, Lei Z, Chen J, Yang W (2008) Spatial and temporal variation of runoff in the Yangtze river basin during the past 40 years. Q Int 186:32–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yao Y, Qin Q, Fadhil AM, Li Y, Zhao S, Liu S, Sui X, Dong H (2011) Evaluation of EDI derived from the exponential evapotranspiration model for monitoring China’s surface drought. Environ Earth Sci 63(2):425–436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yevjevich V (1967) An objective approach to definition and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology Papers 23. Colorado State University, Fort Collins

  • Yevjevich V (1983) Methods for determining statistical properties of droughts. In: Yevjevich V, da Cunha L, Vlachos E (eds) Coping with droughts. Water Resources Publications, Colorado, pp 22–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Young AR, Gustard A, Bullock A, Sekulin AE, Croker KM (2000) A river network based hydrological model for predicting natural and influenced flow statistics at ungauged sites: micro LOW FLOWS. Sci Total Environ 251:293–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaidman MD, Rees HG, Young AR (2001) Spatio-temporal development of streamflow droughts in north-west Europe. Hydr Earth Sys Sci 5:733–751

    Google Scholar 

  • Zelenhasi'c E, Salvai A (1987) A method of streamflow drought analysis. Water Resour Res 23:156–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering Department, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

    Motalleb Byzedi

  2. Civil Engineering Department, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Bahram Saghafian

  3. Agronomy Department, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

    Khosro Mohammadi

  4. Water Engineering Department, Mahabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahabad, Iran

    Maaroof Siosemarde

Authors
  1. Motalleb Byzedi
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bahram Saghafian
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Khosro Mohammadi
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Maaroof Siosemarde
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Motalleb Byzedi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Byzedi, M., Saghafian, B., Mohammadi, K. et al. Regional analysis of streamflow drought: a case study in southwestern Iran. Environ Earth Sci 71, 2955–2972 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2674-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2674-7

Keywords