Environmental Earth Sciences

, Volume 70, Issue 4, pp 1495–1506 | Cite as

Co-kriging for modeling shallow groundwater level changes in consideration of land use/land cover pattern

  • Jean Aurelien Moukana
  • Hisafumi AsaueEmail author
  • Katsuaki Koike
Original Article


This study aimed at clarifying the relationship between the dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and decline in the groundwater levels, and specifying an LULC category strongly affecting such decline in a Quaternary sedimentary basin. Groundwater level data recorded at 26 observation wells for a 14-year period in the Kumamoto Plain, central Kyushu, southwest Japan, were used for the analysis. The general trends of LULC were detected by a satellite image classification technique and surface spline method, which highlighted the decreases in groundwater-recharge materials. As the next step, those trends of groundwater levels that were closely correlated with rainfall were removed from the level data set, and the resultant residual component levels were applied to co-kriging analysis with LULC categories. Co-kriging provided a detailed map of groundwater level variability. Furthermore, we propose a method, prediction of residual of groundwater level (PWL), to infer future residual groundwater levels from the supposed LULC pattern by co-kriging-based modeling. PWL was demonstrated to be effective because it clearly represented the decrease and increase in negative residual level areas, depending on the extent of rice fields in the past and in predicted future distribution scenarios.


Groundwater level Satellite image classification Trend removal Ordinary co-kriging Kumamoto Plain 



The authors express their sincere thanks to Mr. Tohru Yoshinaga of the Technical Division, Faculty of Engineering, Kumamoto University, for his valuable suggestions and discussions regarding analysis of the data. Sincere thanks are extended to the Construction Ministry of Japan and the Kumamoto City Office for providing groundwater level data, and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable and constructive comments that helped improve the clarity of the manuscript.


  1. Cho J, Barone VA, Mostaghimi S (2009) Simulation of land use impacts on groundwater levels and streamflow in a Virginia watershed. Agric Water Manag 96:1–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Choi W, Galasinski U, Cho S-J, Hwang C-S (2012) A spatiotemporal analysis of groundwater level changes in relation to urban growth and groundwater recharge potential for Waukesha County, Wisconsin. Geogr Anal 44:219–234CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Deutsch CV, Journel AG (1998) GSLIB: geostatistical software library and user’s guide. Oxford University Press, New York, p 345Google Scholar
  4. Heriawan MN, Koike K (2008) Identify spatial heterogeneity of coal resource quality in a multilayer coal deposit by multivariate geostatistics. Int J Coal Geol 73:307–330CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Isaaks EH, Srivastava RM (1989) An introduction to applied geostatistics. Oxford University Press, New York, p 561Google Scholar
  6. Koike K, Matsuda S (2005) Spatial modeling of discontinuous geological attributes with geotechnical applications. Eng Geol 78:143–161CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Koike K, Minta T, Ishizaka S, Ohmi M (1996) Hydrogeological and ground-water resource analysis using a geotechnical database. Nonrenew Resour 5:23–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Kumamoto City (2006) Annual report of water conservation in Kumamoto City (in Japanese)Google Scholar
  9. Kumamoto City (2009) FY2009 report of groundwater-intake in Kumamoto City (in Japanese)Google Scholar
  10. Kumar V, Remadevi R (2006) Kriging of groundwater levels—a case study. J Spat Hydrol 6:81–94Google Scholar
  11. Li B, Yeh T-CJ (1999) Cokriging estimation of the conductivity field under variably saturated flow conditions. Water Resour Res 35:3663–3674CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Machiwal D, Mishra A, Jha MK, Sharma A, Sisodia SS (2012) Modeling short-term spatial and temporal variability of groundwater level using geostatistics and GIS. Nat Resour Res 21:117–136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Mandal AK, Zhang J (2012) Climate change and the future of freshwater resources of the island: a case study on the Rishiri Island, Japan. Environ Earth Sci 66:1309–1319CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Minetti JL, Vargas WM, Pobleta AG, Acuna LR, Casagrande G (2003) Non-linear trends and low frequency oscillations in annual precipitation over Argentina and Chile, 1931–1999. Aftmosfera 16:119–135Google Scholar
  15. Mishima Y, Takada M, Kitagawa R (2011) Evaluation of intrinsic vulnerability to nitrate contamination of groundwater: appropriate fertilizer application management. Environ Earth Sci 63:571–580CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Moukana JA, Koike K (2008) Geostatistical model for correlating declining groundwater levels with changes in land cover detected from the analyses of satellite images. Comput Geosci 34:1527–1540CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Nishikiori T, Takamatsu T, Kohzu A, Nakajima Y, Watanabe M (2012) Distribution of nitrate in groundwater affected by the presence of an aquitard at an agricultural area in Chiba, Japan. Environ Earth Sci 67:1531–1545CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Parvin M, Tadakuma N, Asaue H, Koike K (2011) Characterizing the regional pattern and temporal change of groundwater levels by analyses of a well log dataset. Front Earth Sci 5:294–304Google Scholar
  19. Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vettering TW, Flannery PB (1992) Numerical recipes in Fortran 77, the art of scientific computing, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, UKGoogle Scholar
  20. Reghunath R, Sreedhara Murphy TR, Raghavan BR (2005) Time series analysis to monitor and assess water resources: a moving average approach. Environ Monit Assess 109:65–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Rousseeuw P (1984) Least median of squares regression. J Am Stat Assoc 79:871–880CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Rousseeuw P, Leroy A (1987) Robust regression and outlier detection, 1st edn, Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  23. Scanlon BR, Reedy RC, Stonestrom DA, Prudic DE, Dennehy KF (2005) Impact of land use and land cover change on groundwater recharge and quality in the southwestern US. Glob Change Biol 11:1577–1593CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Singh A (1989) Digital change detection techniques using remotely sensed data. Int J Remote Sens 10:989–1003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Singh CK, Shashtri S, Mukherjee S, Kumari R, Avatar R, Singh A, Singh RP (2011) Application of GWQI to assess effect of land use change on groundwater quality in lower Shiwaliks of Punjab: remote sensing and GIS based approach. Water Resour Manage 25:1881–1898CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Wackernagel H (1995) Multivariate geostatistics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin-HeidelbergCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Watson DF (1992) Contouring: a guide to the analysis and display of spatial data. Pergamon Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  28. Wijesekara GN, Gupta A, Valeo C, Hasbani J-G, Qiao Y, Delaney P, Marceau DJ (2012) Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada. J Hydrol 412–413:220–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Yu ZW (2001) Surface interpolation from irregularly distributed points using surface splines, with Fortran program. Comput Geosci 27:877–882CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Yue S, Pilon P (2003) Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation. Hydrol Sci J Sci Hydrol 48:51–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Zhang Y-K, Schilling KE (2006) Effects of land cover on water table, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge: a field observation and analysis. J Hydrol 319:328–338CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jean Aurelien Moukana
    • 1
  • Hisafumi Asaue
    • 2
    Email author
  • Katsuaki Koike
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of GeographyOmar Bongo UniversityLibrevilleGabon
  2. 2.Graduate School of Science and TechnologyKumamoto UniversityKumamotoJapan
  3. 3.Department of Urban ManagementGraduate School of Engineering, Kyoto UniversityKyotoJapan

Personalised recommendations