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Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River, Xinjiang, China

Environmental Earth Sciences volume 64, pages 2203–2213 (2011)Cite this article

Abstract

The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff.

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Acknowledgments

This study is financially supported mainly by the National Basic Research Program of China (973Program) (No. 2009CB421308) and the National Science and Technology Project of China (No. 2007BAC17B01).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 830011, Urumqi, China

    Hongbo Ling, Hailiang Xu, Wei Shi & Qingqing Zhang

  2. Graduate university of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049, Beijing, China

    Hongbo Ling, Wei Shi & Qingqing Zhang

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  1. Hongbo Ling
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  2. Hailiang Xu
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  3. Wei Shi
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  4. Qingqing Zhang
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Correspondence to Hailiang Xu.

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Ling, H., Xu, H., Shi, W. et al. Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River, Xinjiang, China. Environ Earth Sci 64, 2203–2213 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-1048-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-1048-2

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Periodicity and trend of runoff
  • Human activity
  • Manas River Basin
  • Arid region