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Evaluation of Gold’s nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival in gastrointestinal stromal tumors in Indian patients

Indian Journal of Gastroenterology volume 35, pages 225–228 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

Gold described a nomogram for prediction of recurrence-free survival (RFS) after surgery for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). This retrospective study was intended to evaluate the utility of this nomogram for predicting a 2-year RFS in our patients. Twenty-eight consecutive eligible patients from January 2009 to January 2013 who underwent R0 resection and had histopathologically proven GIST were included in the study. Nomogram predicted RFS was compared with observed RFS in four groups as in the National Institutes of Health (NIH)-Fletcher classification. Calibration was assessed by plotting the predicted probabilities of RFS against the actual outcome. For validation of the nomogram, the graph obtained should be closer to the 45-degree line. The observed overall 2-year RFS was 85.7 % (24 patients). Four patients had recurrence within 2 years. The observed RFS was 87.5 %, 77.8 %, 90 %, and 100 % in the high, intermediate, low, and very low risk groups, respectively. The nomogram predicted the 2-year RFS was 40 %, 84.8 %, 88.6 %, and 90 % for high, intermediate, low, and very low risk groups, respectively. Thus, the predicted probabilities of the 2-year RFS in intermediate, low, and very low risk groups were similar to the observed outcomes. However, for the high risk group, the observed RFS was better than predicted RFS. This variation in the high risk group may be due to the use of adjuvant imatinib in our study.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge the original authors of this nomogram for giving their consent to undertake this study; the Department of Pathology, Medical College, Trivandrum, for taking the pains to evaluate the pathology specimens; and to Dr. Iyoob, Associate Professor in Surgical Gastroenterology, for being part of the operating team for a few patients.

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  1. Department of Surgical Gastroenterology, Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, 695 011, India

    Fysal Kollanta Valappil, Ramesh Rajan, Bonny Natesh, R. S. Sindhu, S. Raviram & Jacob Mathew

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  1. Fysal Kollanta Valappil
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  2. Ramesh Rajan
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  4. R. S. Sindhu
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Correspondence to Fysal Kollanta Valappil.

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FKV, RR, BN, RSS, SR, and JM declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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The authors declare that the study was performed in a manner to conform to the Helsinki Declaration of 1975, as revised in 2000 and 2008 concerning human and animal rights, and the authors followed the policy concerning informed consent as shown on Springer.com.

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Valappil, F.K., Rajan, R., Natesh, B. et al. Evaluation of Gold’s nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival in gastrointestinal stromal tumors in Indian patients. Indian J Gastroenterol 35, 225–228 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12664-016-0667-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12664-016-0667-7

Keywords

  • GIST
  • Imatinib
  • Nomogram
  • Recurrence-free survival