Skip to main content
Log in

When Are Deliveries Profitable?

Considering Order Value and Transport Capacity in Demand Fulfillment for Last-Mile Deliveries in Metropolitan Areas

  • Research Paper
  • Published:
Business & Information Systems Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The paper aims to optimize the final part of a firm’s value chain with regard to attended last-mile deliveries. It is assumed that to be profitable, e-commerce businesses need to maximize the overall value of fulfilled orders (rather than their number), while also limiting costs of delivery. To do so, it is essential to decide which delivery requests to accept and which time windows to offer to which consumers. This is especially relevant for attended deliveries, as delivery fees usually cannot fully compensate costs of delivery given tight delivery time windows. The literature review shows that existing order acceptance techniques often ignore either the order value or the expected costs of delivery. The paper presents an iterative solution approach: after calculating an approximate transport capacity based on forecasted expected delivery requests and a cost-minimizing routing, actual delivery requests are accepted or rejected aiming to maximize the overall value of orders given the computed transport capacity. With the final set of accepted requests, the routing solution is updated to minimize costs of delivery. The presented solution approach combines well-known methods from revenue management and time-dependent vehicle routing. In a computational study for a German metropolitan area, the potential and the limits of value-based demand fulfillment as well as its sensitivity regarding forecast accuracy and demand composition are investigated.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agatz N, Campbell AM, Fleischmann M, Savelsbergh M (2011) Time slot management in attended home delivery. Transportation Science 45(3):435–449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen J, Thorne G, Browne M (2007) BESTUFS good practice guide of urban freight transport. Manual. http://www.bestufs.net/download/BESTUFS_II/good_practice/English_BESTUFS_Guide.pdf. Accessed 2013-06-30

  • Baldacci R, Mingozzi A, Roberti R (2012) Recent exact algorithms for solving the vehicle routing problem under capacity and time window constraints. European Journal of Operational Research 218(1):1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belobaba PP (1987) Air travel demand and airline seat inventory management. Dissertation, Flight Transportation Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

  • Bräysy O, Gendreau M (2005a) Vehicle routing problem with time windows. Part I. Route construction and local search algorithms. Transportation Science 39(1):104–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bräysy O, Gendreau M (2005b) Vehicle routing problem with time windows. Part II. Metaheuristics. Transportation Science 39(1):119–139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell AM, Savelsbergh M (2005) Decision support for consumer direct grocery initiatives. Transportation Science 39(3):313–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleophas C, Frank M, Kliewer N (2009) Recent developments in demand forecasting for airline revenue management. International Journal of Revenue Management 6(3):252–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donati AV, Montemanni R, Casagrande N, Rizzoli AE, Gambardella LM (2008) Time dependent vehicle routing problem with a multi ant colony system. European Journal of Operational Research 185(3):1174–1191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehmke JF, Steinert A, Mattfeld DC (2012a) Advanced routing for city logistics service providers based on time-dependent travel times. International Journal of Computational Science 3(4):193–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehmke JF, Meisel S, Mattfeld DC (2012b) Floating car based travel times for city logistics. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 21(1):338–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehmke JF, Campbell AM (2014) Customer acceptance mechanisms for attended home deliveries in metropolitan areas. European Journal of Operational Research 233(1):193–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fleischmann B, Gietz M, Gnutzmann S (2004) Time-varying travel times in vehicle routing. Transportation Science 38(2):160–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Figliozzi MA (2009) A route improvement algorithm for the vehicle routing problem with time dependent travel times. In: Proceedings of the 88th transportation research board annual meeting, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Gevaers R, van de Voorde E, Vanelslander T (2010) Characteristics and typology of last-mile logistics from an innovation perspective in an urban context. In: Proc of WCTR 2010, Lisbon, Portugal

    Google Scholar 

  • Haghani A, Jung S (2005) A dynamic vehicle routing problem with time-dependent travel times. Computers & Operations Research 32(11):2959–2986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hahn GJ, Kuhn H (2012) Designing decision support systems for value-based management: a survey and an architecture. Decision Support Systems 53:591–598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hashimoto H, Yagiura M, Ibaraki T (2008) An iterated local search algorithm for the time-dependent vehicle routing problem with time windows. Discrete Optimization 5(2):434–456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ichoua S, Gendreau M, Potvin J-Y (2003) Vehicle dispatching with time-dependent travel times. European Journal of Operational Research 144(2):379–396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelton WD, Law A (2000) Simulation modeling and analysis. McGraw Hill, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Kok AL, Hans EW, Schutten JMJ (2012) Vehicle routing under time-dependent travel times: the impact of congestion avoidance. Computers & Operations Research 39(5):910–918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landeshauptstadt Stuttgart (2012) Kleinräumige Einkommensverteilung in Stuttgart 2009. http://www.stuttgart.de/item/show/305805/1/publ/20908. Accessed 2013-06-30

  • Littlewood K (1972) Forecasting and control of passenger booking. In: AGIFORS symposium proceedings

    Google Scholar 

  • Maden W, Eglese R, Black D (2010) Vehicle routing and scheduling with time-varying data: a case study. Journal of Operations Research Society 61:515–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Potvin JY, Rousseau JM (1993) A parallel route building algorithm for the vehicle routing and scheduling problem with time windows. European Journal of Operational Research 66(3):331–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Punakivi M, Saranen J (2001) Identifying the success factors in e-grocery home delivery. Journal of Retail and Distribution Management 29(4):156–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quante R, Meyr H, Fleischmann M (2009) Revenue management and demand fulfillment: matching applications, models, and software. OR Spectrum 31:31–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stadtler H (2005) Supply chain management and advanced planning – basics, overview and challenges. European Journal of Operational Research 163(3):575–588

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Talluri KT, Van Ryzin GJ (2004) The theory and practice of revenue management, vol 68. Springer, Heidelberg

    Google Scholar 

  • US Census Bureau (2012). Quarterly retail e-commerce sales 2nd quarter 2012. News release. http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf. Accessed 2012-09-30

  • Wirthman L (2013) Amazon, Ebay, Walmart same-day deliver, but should you? Forbes BrandVoice. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ups/2013/04/04/amazon-ebay-walmart-same-day-deliver-but-should-you/. Accessed 2013-06-30

  • Yang X, Strauss AK, Currie C, Eglese R (2012) Choice-based demand management and vehicle routing in e-fulfilment. Working paper, University of Warwick. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/about/people/strauss/publications/jointdemandmanagementfinalplainr1.pdf. Accessed 2013-10-15

  • Vinod B (2006) Advances in inventory control. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management 4(4):367–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeni R (2001) Improved forecast accuracy in airline revenue management by unconstraining demand estimates from censored data. Dissertation. State University of New Jersey

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jan Fabian Ehmke.

Additional information

Accepted after three revisions by the editors of the special focus.

This article is also available in German in print and via http://www.wirtschaftsinformatik.de: Cleophas C, Ehmke JF (2014) Wann sind Lieferaufträge profitabel? Berücksichtigung des Auftragswertes und der Transportkapazität in der Tourenplanung für die „letzte Meile“ in Ballungsräumen. WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK. doi: 10.1007/s11576-014-0412-8.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cleophas, C., Ehmke, J.F. When Are Deliveries Profitable?. Bus Inf Syst Eng 6, 153–163 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12599-014-0321-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12599-014-0321-9

Keywords

Navigation