Abstract
The Chinese government began implementing a new family planning policy in 2016 allowing couples to have two children (referred to as the “universal two-child policy”). To predict and evaluate the effects of the policy on the size and structure of Chinese future population, we established a population predicting model that suits China’s characteristics and predicted China’s future population size and structure. Our results showed that: (1) the implementation of the universal two-child policy will have short- and long-term effects on China’s future birth rates. (2) The universal two-child policy will have a limited effect on China’s increase in fertility levels and on the national population size and structure, nor will it change China’s ageing population growth trend and the severity of China’s aging.
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Sources: The fourth (1990), the fifth (2000) and the sixth (2010) National Population Census of China, and 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2005 and 2015 of China
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This manuscript is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71742006).
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Li, H., Zhou, T. & Jia, C. The influence of the universal two-child policy on China’s future population and ageing. J Pop Research 36, 183–203 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-019-09228-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-019-09228-7