Journal of Population Research

, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp 233–252 | Cite as

A temporary contraction in the number of Peruvian births circa 1990: documenting a previously undetected event



In the 1980s, Peru experienced a deep economic crisis and an extremely violent political climate with armed confrontation. As suggested by the literature, it would be reasonable to expect a temporary contraction in the number of births during this period; however, the official population estimates do not show that behaviour. Relying on three different sources (generated independently by diverse organisations in different moments and using varied methods), this article finds consistent evidence suggesting there was a contraction in fertility that has not been previously accounted for. The article also estimates the size of said contraction.


Demography in Peru Fertility contraction Use of administrative records Economic crisis and fertility Political violence and fertility 



The author expresses his gratitude to María Alejandra Zegarra, Katerina Valdivieso, and Hendrik van der Pol for their comments on a draft of this text. He also acknowledges the support of David Sulmont in accessing CVR data, and of Fredy Injoque regarding School Census data. The National Identity Register also granted access to an extract of their records at our request. Rosa Arévalo provided support in locating additional data sources. The first pieces of evidence (coming from the School Censuses) that suggested the phenomenon discussed in this article were discussed with José Rodríguez back in 2000. The Centro de Investigación de la Universidad del Pacífico provided the environment and support needed to complete this article and also supported data requests from the National Identity Register, and funded my time devoted to research activities. There was no other source of funding in addition to the notional costs covered by Universidad del Pacífico.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Social and Political SciencesUniversidad del PacíficoLima 11Peru

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