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Does indirect exposure to international migration influence marriage and fertility in Albania?

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Abstract

Our knowledge of the interactions between international migration and fertility in sending countries is biased towards family members left behind, who constitute a minority and decreasing share of populations. We assess the potential for emigrants’ social diffusion of low fertility into Albania and investigate how family behaviours are affected by indirect exposure to migration within the sending society, using data from multiple survey rounds. Effects arising from direct exposure within the family had a limited importance. Marriages were postponed and marital fertility was reduced because of the transformation of the larger social context, as indicated by the importance of community migrant networks and by women’s increased aspirations, which are induced by the perception of the prospects and benefits of migration in the society at large. The effects of emigration on the fertility transition seem therefore to be independent of periodic fluctuations in population flows and their associated economic benefits.

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Notes

  1. The number of children and women observed at the Census are reverse-survived to retrospectively estimate births and at-risk populations. Age of mother at birth is obtained through a linkage of children to their mothers living in the same household.

  2. The ratio of the number of men to the number of women aged 5 years less on average is computed (i.e. the numbers of men aged 20–29, 25–34, 30–39, etc. are divided respectively by the number of women aged 15–24, 20–29, 25–34, etc.).

  3. Because women may limit the number of dependent children to facilitate emigration, or may bring forward family events to increase their opportunity to reunify with a partner abroad, we tested the exogeneity of the predisposition to migrate. The residuals of a selection model of the willingness to move, including the average willingness of other household members as instrument (i.e. uncorrelated with the women’s family events), were introduced as additional regressors in the marriage and birth models. Since in both cases these residuals did not have a significant effect on the event of interest, there is no overlap in unobservable characteristics that affect migration intentions and family behaviour. We therefore kept with a reduced-form equation.

  4. Although the selection of emigrants according to municipality-specific marriage patterns was also controlled for, it was excluded from the model because its effect was not significant and did not affect the results (not shown).

  5. Migrant selection according to local fertility regimes was also controlled for, but was excluded from the final model as its effect was not significant and did not affect the results (not shown).

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  1. Institut d’études démographiques et du parcours de vie, Centre Interfacultaire de gérontologie, Université de Genève, Uni Mail, 40, bvd Pont d’Arve, 1211, Geneva 4, Switzerland

    Mathias Lerch

  2. Centre interfacultaire de gérontologie et d’études des vulnérabilités, Université de Genève, 54, rte des Acacias, 1227, Carouge, Switzerland

    Mathias Lerch

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Lerch, M. Does indirect exposure to international migration influence marriage and fertility in Albania?. J Pop Research 32, 95–114 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-015-9144-x

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