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Simulating the Expansion of Built-Up Areas using the Models of Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Network, and Geo-Mod in Marivan City, Iran

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Abstract

Understanding and modeling land use and land cover changes are critically important subjects for the purposes of environmental management, planning, and civil engineering. Models are considered as good approaches for having better estimation or understanding of the phenomenon of land use, land cover changes, thoughtful planning, and alteration in better management of cities and villages. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze and compare the three models of logistic regression, ANNs, and Geo-Mod in predicting the expansion of built-up areas in a 10-year period in Marivan city, Iran. For this purpose, land cover maps at different times were prepared using Landsat data, including the images of the TM sensor of Landsat 5 in 1989, the ETM+ sensor of Landsat 7 in 2000, and the TM sensor of Landsat 5 in 2011. According to the results, during the period from 1989 to 2011, the built-up area of land cover has been multiplied by 2.74 (73.63 ha/year), which is equal to 1296 ha in 2011 compared to 459 ha in 1989. According to the results, logistic regression has been the preferred method in modeling changes to built-up areas among the presented methods. In addition, one of the advantages of logistic regression is to determine the relationship between variables and changes to the built-up areas. Although Geo-Mod yielded poorer results than the other two methods, its advantages of the neighborhood rule and the maximum use of available data should not be disregarded.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

    Sasan Vafaei

  2. Department of Geography, College of Education, University of Garmian, Kalar, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

    Mohammed Mahdi Karim

  3. Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, College of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

    Satar Soltanian

  4. Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan, Someh Sara, Iran

    Sabri Rasooli

Authors
  1. Sasan Vafaei
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  2. Mohammed Mahdi Karim
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  3. Satar Soltanian
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  4. Sabri Rasooli
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Correspondence to Sabri Rasooli.

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Vafaei, S., Karim, M.M., Soltanian, S. et al. Simulating the Expansion of Built-Up Areas using the Models of Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Network, and Geo-Mod in Marivan City, Iran. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 49, 1081–1090 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-020-01297-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-020-01297-z

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