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Vulnerability Assessment and Modelling of Urban Growth Using Data Envelopment Analysis

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Abstract

Determining the vulnerability of urban areas is one of the requirements that must be met before urban development to manage urban growth efficiently. This study aims to assess the vulnerability of urban areas using the data envelopment analysis method. We determined the physical growth of Yazd City in central Iran, utilizing the satellite images of 1976, 1984, 1993, 2006, and 2013. We studied the city’s growth in three districts as well as four different geographical directions in different years. Afterwards, this study identified the geomorphological indicators influential on the development of the districts. The constant return to scale additive model was designed and proposed to investigate different districts’ vulnerability and identify the areas with the highest and lowest vulnerability degrees. Finally, we introduced the districts with the least vulnerability as a pattern for the sustainable growth of the city. The modelling results show that District 2 in 1976 had the highest vulnerability (\({{Z}}_{0}^{*} = 0\)). Despite having the smallest area (input), this district has the highest unsuitable performance in terms of the geomorphological indicators. The performance of other units was found appropriate. We compared Districts 2 and 3 with District 1 from the year 2013. Thus, the decision-making units reveals that Districts 2 and 3 in 2013 have the rank of 14 and 13, respectively, while District 1 has 8 with the lowest vulnerability of growth. It recognized that District 1 has the highest suitability performance and better sustainability than two other districts. Therefore, we recommend it to the government for the sustainable and smart growth of the city considering Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-11.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Amanehalsadat Pouriyeh

  2. Department of Mathematics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi

  3. Department of Geoinformatics and Surveying, Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering (FGEE), Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 61156, China

    Saied Pirasteh

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  1. Amanehalsadat Pouriyeh
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  2. Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi
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  3. Saied Pirasteh
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Correspondence to Saied Pirasteh.

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Pouriyeh, A., Lotfi, F.H. & Pirasteh, S. Vulnerability Assessment and Modelling of Urban Growth Using Data Envelopment Analysis. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 49, 259–273 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-020-01206-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-020-01206-4

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