Abstract
During the last decade, evidence-based medicine has been described as a paradigm shift in clinical practice, and as “the conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of current best evidence in making decisions about the care of individual patients”. Appropriate statistical methods for analyzing data are critical for the correct interpretation of the results in proof of the evidence. However, in the medical literature, these statistical methods are often incorrectly interpreted or misinterpreted, leading to serious methodological errors and misinterpretations. This review highlights several important aspects related to the design and statistical analysis for evidence-based reproductive medicine. First, we clarify the distinction between ratios, proportions, and rates, and then provide a definition of pregnancy rate. Second, we focus on a special type of bias called ‘confounding bias’, which occurs when a factor is associated with both the exposure and the disease but is not part of the causal pathway. Finally, we present concerns regarding misuse of statistical software or application of inappropriate statistical methods, especially in medical research.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- ANCOVA:
-
Analysis of covariance
- ANOVA:
-
Analysis of variance
- ART:
-
Assisted reproduction technologies
- BMI:
-
Body mass index
- EBM:
-
Evidence-based medicine
- EDA:
-
Exploratory data analysis
- HCG:
-
Human chorionic gonadotropin
- NEJM:
-
New England Journal of Medicine
- ROC:
-
Receiver operating characteristic curves
References
Steptoe PC, Edwards RG. Birth after the reimplantation of a human embryo. Lancet. 1978;2:366.
Van Noord-Zaadstra BM, Looman CW, Alsbach H, Habbema JD, te Velde ER, Karbaat J. Delaying childbearing: effect of age on fecundity and outcome of pregnancy. BMJ. 1991;302:1361–5.
Gnoth C, Godehardt D, Godehardt E, Frank-Herrmann P, Freundl G. Time to pregnancy: results of the German prospective study and impact on the management of infertility. Hum Reprod. 2003;18:1959–66.
Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ. Fertility and abortion rates in the United States, 1960–2002. Int J Androl. 2006;29:34–45.
Schoen R, Canudas-Romo V. Timing effects on first marriage: twentieth-century experience in England and Wales and the USA. Popul Stud (Camb). 2005;59:135–46.
van Tetering EA, van Dessel HJHM, Mol BWJ. Evidence-based reproductive medicine in clinical practice: the case of clomiphene-resistant PCOS. Eur Clinics Obstet Gynecol. 2005;1(2):89–94.
Evidence-based Medicine Working Group. Evidence-based medicine: a new approach to teaching the practice of medicine. JAMA. 1992;268:2420–5.
Davidoff F, Haynes B, Sackett D, Smith R. Evidence based medicine: a new journal to help doctors identify the information they need. BMJ. 1995;310:1085–6.
Sackett DL, Rosenberg WM, Gray JA, Haynes RB, Richardson WS. Evidence based medicine: what it is and what it isn’t. BMJ. 1996;312:71–2.
Coomarasamy A, Khan KS. What is the evidence that postgraduate teaching in EBM changes anything? A systematic review. BMJ. 2004;329:1017.
Keus F, Wetterslev J, Gluud C, van Laarhoven CJ. Evidence at a glance: error matrix approach for overviewing available evidence. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2010;10:90.
Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions. The Cochrane Collaboration. 2008.
Pocock SJ, Hughes MD, Lee RJ. Statistical problems in the reporting of clinical trials—a survey of three medical journals. N Engl J Med. 1987;317:426–32.
Porter AM. Misuse of correlation and regression in three medical journals. J Roy Soc Med. 1999;92:123–8.
Strasak AM, Zaman Q, Pfeiffer KP, Göbel G, Ulmer H. Statistical errors in medical research—a review of common pitfalls. Swiss Med Wkly. 2007;137:44–9.
Cox DR, Reid N. The theory of the design of experiments. London: Chapman & Hall/CRC; 2000.
Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL. Modern epidemiology. 3rd ed. New York: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2008.
ICH E9 Expert Working Group. Statistical principles for clinical trials. Stat Med 1999;18:1905–42.
Altman DG. Statistics and ethics in medical research: misuse of statistics is unethical. BMJ. 1980;281:1267–9.
Gardenier JS, Resnik DB. The misuse of statistics: concepts, tools, and a research agenda. Acc Res. 2002;9:65–74.
Elandt-Johnson RC. Definition of rates: some remarks on their use and misuse. Am J Epidemiol. 1975;102(4):267–71.
Ahrens W, Pigeot I. Handbook of epidemiology. Berlin: Springer; 2005.
Aschengrau A, Seage G. Essentials of epidemiology in public health. 2nd ed. Sudbury: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc; 2008.
Tur-Kaspa I, Yuval Y, Bider D, Levron J, Shulman A, Dor J. Difficult or repeated sequential embryo transfers do not adversely affect in-vitro fertilization pregnancy rates or outcome. Hum Reprod. 1998;13:2452–5.
Hearns-Stokes RM, Miller BT, Scott L, Creuss D, Chakraborty PK, Segars JH. Pregnancy rates after embryo transfer depend on the provider at embryo transfer. Fertil Steril. 2000;74(1):80–6.
Yule GU. Notes on the theory of association of attributes in statistics. Biometrika. 1903;2(2):121–34.
Simpson EH. The interpretation of interaction in contingency tables. J Roy Stat Soc B. 1951;13:238–41.
Appleton DR, French JM, Vanderpump MPJ. Ignoring a covariate: an example of Simpson’s paradox. Am Stat. 1996;50(44):340–1.
Julious SA, Mullee MA. Confounding and Simpson’s paradox. BMJ. 1994;309(6967):1480–1.
Wagner CH. Simpson’s paradox in real life. Am Stat. 1982;36(1):46–8.
Reintjes R, de Boer A, van Pelt W, Mintjes-de Groot J. Simpson’s paradox: an example from hospital epidemiology. Epidemiology. 2000;11(1):81–3.
Neutel CI. The potential for Simpson’s paradox in drug utilization studies. Ann Epidemiol. 1997;7:517–21.
Julious SA, Mullee MA. Confounding and Simpson’s paradox. BMJ. 1994;309:1480–1.
Hand DJ. Psychiatric examples of Simpson’s paradox. Br J Psychiatry. 1979;135:90–1.
Finer LB, Henshaw SK, Finer LB, Henshaw SK. Disparities in rates of unintended pregnancy in the United States, 1994 and 2001. Perspect Sex Repro H. 2006;38(2):90–6.
Bateman BT, Simpson LL. Higher rate of stillbirth at the extremes of reproductive age: a large nationwide sample of deliveries in the United States. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2006;194(3):840–5.
Altman DG, Deeks JJ. Meta-analysis, Simpson’s paradox, and the number needed to treat. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2002;2:3.
Cates CJ. Simpson’s paradox and calculation of number needed to treat from meta-analysis. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2002;2:1.
Rücker G, Schumacher M. Simpson’s paradox visualized: the example of the rosiglitazone meta-analysis. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2008;8:34.
Howell DC. Fundamental statistics for the behavioral sciences. 6th ed. Belmont: Wadsworth; 2008.
Ercan I, Yazici B, Yang Y. Misusage of statistics in medical research. Eur J Gen Med. 2007;4:128–34.
Anscombe FJ. Graphs in statistical analysis. Am Stat. 1973;27(1):17–21.
Rao CR. Linear statistical inference and its applications. 2nd ed. New York: Wiley; 1973.
Quinn GP, Keough MJ. Experimental design and data analysis for biologists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2002.
Tukey JW. Exploratory data analysis. MA: Addison-Wesley; 1977.
Theus M, Urbanek S. Interactive graphics for data analysis: principles and examples. Boca Raton: CRC Press; 2008.
Barnett V, Lewis T. Outliers in statistical data. 3rd ed. NY: Wiley; 1994.
Rousseeuw PJ, Leroy AM. Robust regression and outlier detection. NY: Wiley; 1987.
Grubbs FE. Procedures for detecting outlying observations in samples. Technometrics. 1969;11:1–21.
Iglewicz B, Hoaglin DC. How to detect and handle outliers. Milwaukee: American Society for Quality Control; 1993.
Dean RB, Dixon WJ. Simplified statistics for small numbers of observations. Anal Chem. 1951;23(4):636–8.
Altman DG. Practical statistics for medical research. London: Chapman and Hall; 1991.
Conover WJ. Practical nonparametric statistics. 2nd ed. NY: Wiley; 1971.
Armitage P, Berry G. Statistical methods in medical research. 3rd ed. NY: Blackwell Science; 1994.
Hollander M, Wolfe DA. Nonparametric statistical methods. 2nd ed. NY: Wiley-Interscience; 1999.
Horton NJ, Switzer SS. Statistical methods in the journal. N Engl J Med. 2005;353(18):1977–9.
Altman DG, Bland JM. Improving doctors’ understanding of statistics. J Roy Stat Soc A. 1991;154:223–67.
Emerson JD, Colditz GA. Use of statistical analysis in New England Journal of Medicine. N Engl J Med. 1983;309:709–13.
Emerson JD, Colditz GA. Use of statistical analysis in the New England Journal of Medicine. In: Bailar JC, MosteUer F, editors. Medical uses of statistics. 3rd ed. Boston: NEJM Books; 1992. p. 45–57.
Schwartz SJ, Sturr M, Goldberg G. Statistical methods in rehabilitation literature: a survey of recent publications. Arch Phys Med Rehabil. 1996;77:497–500.
Wainapel SF, Kayne HL. Statistical methods in rehabilitation research. Arch Phys Med Rehabil. 1985;66:322–4.
Kurichi JE, Sonnad SS. Statistical methods in the surgical literature. J Am Coll Surg. 2006;202(3):476–84.
Avram MJ, Shanks CA, Dykes MH, et al. Statistical methods in anesthesia articles: an evaluation of two American journals during two six-month periods. Anesth Analg. 1985;64:607–11.
Hokanson JA, Luttman DJ, Weiss GB. Frequency and diversity of use of statistical techniques in oncology journals. Cancer Treat Rep. 1986;7:589–94.
Goldin J, Zhu W, Sayre JW. A review of the statistical analysis used in papers published in Clinical Radiology and British Journal of Radiology. Clin Radiol. 1996;51:47–50.
Elster AD. Use of statistical analysis in the AJR and Radiology: frequency methods and subspecialty differences. Am J Roentgenol. 1994;163:711–5.
Huang W, LaBerge JM, Lu Y, Glidden DV. Research publications in vascular and interventional radiology: research topics, study designs, and statistical methods. J Vasc Interv Radiol. 2002;13:247–55.
Hayden GF. Biostatistical trends in pediatrics: implications for the future. Pediatrics. 1983;72:84–7.
Cardiel MH, Goldsmith CH. Type of statistical techniques in rheumatology and internal medicine journals. Rev Invest Clin. 1995;47:197–201.
Thomas T, Fahey T, Somerset M. The content and methodology of research papers published in three United Kingdom primary care journals. Br J Gen Pract. 1998;48:1229–32.
Rigby AS, Armstrong GK, Campbell MJ, Summerton N. A survey of statistics in three UK general practice journal. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2004;4(1):28.
Altman DG, Goodman SN. Transfer technology from statistical journals to the biomedical literature. Past trends and future predictions. JAMA. 1994;272:129–32.
Altman DG. Statistics in medical journals: some recent trends. Stat Med. 2000;19(23):3275–89.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to Dr. Takao Miyake at Miyake Women’s Clinic, Dr. Maki Murakami at Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency, Dr. Chizuru Ito at Department of Anatomy and Developmental Biology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, and Professor Isao Yoshimura at Tokyo University of Science for their valuable advice and suggestions.
Conflict of interest
None of the authors have a duality of interest with regard to this work.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Sato, Y., Gosho, M. & Toshimori, K. Usefulness of statistics for establishing evidence-based reproductive medicine. Reprod Med Biol 11, 49–58 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12522-011-0106-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12522-011-0106-5