Abstract
Assessment of environmental flow, that has to be maintained along a waterway to keep up health of riverine biological systems, is a key challenge in alleviating impact of establishing hydropower projects especially in mountainous ungauged catchment under limited data conditions. This study addresses the data scarcity issue by prediction of runoff from a Himalayan catchment, India, using HEC-HMS model and then estimating environmental flow based on daily rainfall data of 39 years (1980–2018). The soil conservation service–curve number method is employed for surface runoff estimation that utilizes spatially distributed maps of soil types, drainage, stream order, 4-year land use/land cover (1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020), and hydrologic soil group (HSG). Steep slopes (more than 60%), high annual rainfall (1377 mm), large area under C class of HSG (477.94 km2), and moderate values of curve number (70.51, 70.36, 70.16, and 70.54) revealed high potential for surface runoff generation in the catchment. Predicted runoff depicted a gradually increasing trend during 1980–1995 and decreasing trend during 1995–2008 and 2011–2017. In addition, an abrupt change was observed in annual runoff values in years 1992, 1998, and 2018 when the peak rate of runoff crossed the value of 2000 m3 s−1. The HEC-HMS model is validated by close agreement between peaks and troughs of runoff and rainfall values, and with reasonable values of correlation coefficient (0.57) and coefficient of determination (0.33). The annual values of environmental flow is obtained as 75 and 55 m3 s−1 from the flow duration curves at 70th and 90th percentiles, respectively. Findings of this study are useful for management of flood water in other ungauged mountainous catchment of Himalayan region as well as in other parts of the world under data scarcity conditions.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
Data will be made available on a reasonable request.
References
Akanegbu JO, Meriö LJ, Marttila H, Ronkanen AK, Kløve B (2018) A simple model structure enhances parameter identification and improves runoff prediction in ungauged high-latitude catchments. J Hydrol 563:395–410
Akinwumi AM, Adewumi JR, Obiora-Okeke OA (2021) Impact of climate change on the stream-flow of Ala River, Akure, Nigeria. Sustain Water Resour Manag 7:1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-020-00484-7
Anandharuban P, Rocca ML, Elango L (2019) A box-model approach for reservoir operation during extreme rainfall events: a case study. J Earth Syst Sci 128:229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1258-7
Archer D, Fowler H (2008) Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan. J Hydrol 361:10–23
Azmat M, Choi M, Kim TW, Liaqat UW (2016) Hydrological modeling to simulate streamflow under changing climate in a scarcely gauged cryosphere catchment. Environ Earth Sci 75:186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5059-2
Azmat M, Qamar MU, Ahmed S, Hussain E, Umair M (2017) Application of HEC-HMS for the event and continuous simulation in high altitude scarcely-gauged catchment under changing climate. Eur Water 57:77–84
Boughton W, Chiew F (2007) Estimating runoff in ungauged catchments from rainfall, PET and the AWBM model. Environ Model Softw 22(4):476–487
De Scally FA (1994) Relative importance of snow accumulation and monsoon rainfall data for estimating annual runoff, Jhelum basin, Pakistan. Hydrol Sci J 39:199–216
Ditthakhit P, Pinthong S, Salaeh N, Binnui F, Khwanchum L, Pham QB (2021) Using machine learning methods for supporting GR2M model in runoff estimation in an ungauged basin. Sci Rep 11:19955. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99164-5
Görgens AHM (1983) Reliability of calibration of a monthly rainfall-runoff model: the semiarid case. Hydrol Sci J 28(4):485–498
Guo H, Chen S, Bao A, Hu J, Gebregiorgis A, Xue X, Zhang X (2015) Inter-comparison of high-resolution satellite precipitation products over central Asia. Remote Sens 7:7181–7211
Gyawali, R. and Watkins, D.W. (2013). Continuous hydrologic modeling of snow-affected watersheds in the Great Lakes basin using HEC-HMS. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE,18: 29-39
Haan CT (2002) Statistical Methods in Hydrology (2nd edition). Iowa State Press, Ames, p 496
Hajam RA, Hamid A, Bhat S (2013) Application of morphometric analysis for geo-hydrological studies using geo-spatial technology–a case study of Vishav Drainage Basin. Hydrol Curr Res 4(3):1–12
Holberg J (2014) Tutorial on Using HEC-GeoHMS to develop soil moisture accounting method inputs for HEC-HMS. Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Hughes DA (1995) Monthly rainfall-runoff models applied to arid and semiarid catchments for water resource estimation purposes. Hydrol Sci J 40(6):751–769
Hunukumbura PB, Weerakoon SB, Herath S (2008) Runoff modeling in the upper Kotmale Basin. In: Hennayake N, Rekha N, Nawfhal M, Alagan R, Daskon C (eds) Traversing no man’s land, interdisciplinary essays in honor of Professor Madduma Bandara. University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, pp 169–184
Jangra S, Singh M (2011) Analysis of rainfall and temperatures for climatic trend in Kullu valley. MAUSAM 62(1):77–84
Joo J, Thomas K, Kim H, Lee H (2014) A comparison of two event-based flood models (ReFH-rainfall runoff model and HEC-HMS) at two Korean catchments, Bukil and Jeungpyeong. KSCE J Civ Eng 18(1):330–343
Khatri HB, Jain MK, Jain SK (2018) Modelling of streamflow in snow dominated Budhigandaki catchment in Nepal. J Earth Syst Sci 127:100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-1005-5
Kim HS (2016) Potential improvement of the parameter identifiability in ungauged catchments. Water Resour Manag 30:3207–3228
Kumar D, Bhattacharjya RK (2020) Evaluating two GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological models in the Bhagirathi-Alkhnanda River catchment in India. Water Policy 22:991–1014
Kumar S, Machiwal D, Parmar BS (2019) Parsimonious approach to delineate groundwater potential zones using geospatial modeling and MCDA techniques under limited data availability condition. Eng Rep. https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12073
Leimer S, Pohlert T, Pfahl S, Wilcke W (2011) Towards a new generation of high-resolution meteorological input data for small scale hydrological modeling. J Hydrol 402(3-4):317–332
Machiwal D, Jha MK (2008) Comparative evaluation of statistical tests for time series analysis: application to hydrological time series. Hydrol Sci J 53(2):353–366
Machiwal, D. and Jha, M.K. (2012). Hydrologic time series analysis: theory and practice. Springer, the Natherlands and Capital Publishing Company, New Delhi, India, pp. 303
Machiwal D, Jha MK (2014) Characterizing rainfall-groundwater dynamics in a hard-rock aquifer system using time series, GIS and geostatistical modeling. Hydrol Process 28(5):2824–2843
Machiwal D, Jha MK (2015) GIS-based water balance modeling for estimating regional specific yield and distributed recharge in data-scarce hard-rock region. J Hydro-environ Res 9(4):554–568
Machiwal D, Kumar S, Islam A, Kumar S, Jat SR, Vaishnav M, Dayal D (2021) Evaluating effect of cover crops on runoff, soil loss and soil nutrients in an Indian arid region. Commun Soil Sci Plant Anal 52(14):1669–1688
Machiwal D, Rangi N, Sharma A (2015) Integrated knowledge- and data-driven approaches for groundwater potential zoning using GIS and multi-criteria decision making techniques on hard-rock terrain of Ahar catchment, Rajasthan, India. Environ Earth Sci 73(4):1871–1892
Machiwal D, Srivastava SK, Jain S (2010) Estimation of sediment yield and selection of suitable sites for soil conservation measures in Ahar River basin of Udaipur, Rajasthan using RS and GIS techniques. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 38(4):696–707
Mahanta B, Singh HO, Singh PK, Kainthola A, Singh TN (2016) Stability analysis of potential failure zones along NH-305, India. Nat Haz 83:1341–1357
Makungo R, Odiyo JO, Ndiritu JG, Mwaka B (2010) Rainfall-runoff modelling approach for ungauged catchments: a case study of Nzhelele River sub-quaternary catchment. Phys Chem Earth 35:596–607
McIntyre N, Al-Qurashi A, Wheater H (2007) Regression analysis of rainfall-runoff data from an arid catchment in Oman. Hydrol Sci J 52(6):1103–1118
Merz J, Dangol PM, Dhakal MP, Dongol BS, Nakarmi G, Weingartner R (2006) Rainfall-runoff events in a middle mountain catchment of Nepal. J Hydrol 331:446–458
Morley PJ, Donoghue DNM, Chen J-C, Jump AS (2018) Integrating remote sensing and demography for more efficient and effective assessment of changing mountain forest distribution. Ecol Inform 43:106–115
Natarajan S, Radhakrishnan N (2021) Simulation of rainfall–runoff process for an ungauged catchment using an event-based hydrologic model: a case study of Koraiyar basin in Tiruchirappalli city, India. J Earth Syst Sci 130:30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01532-8
Needelman BA, Gburek WJ, Petersen GW, Sharpley AN, Kleinman PJA (2004) Surface runoff along two agricultural hillslopes with contrasting soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 68:914–923
Ouédraogo WAA, Raude JM, Gathenya JM (2018) Continuous modeling of the Mkurumudzi River catchment in Kenya using the HEC-HMS conceptual model: calibration, validation, model performance evaluation and sensitivity analysis. Hydrology 5(3):44. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology5030044
Petheram C, Rustomji P, Chiew FHS, Vleeshouwer J (2012) Rainfall–runoff modelling in northern Australia: a guide to modelling strategies in the tropics. J Hydrol 462:28–41
Pokhrel BK, Chevallier P, Andréassian V, Tahir AA, Arnaud Y, Neppel L, Budhathoki KP (2014) Comparison of two snowmelt modeling approaches in the DudhKoshi basin (eastern Himalayas, Nepal). Hydrol Sci J 59(8):1507–1518
Pool S, Viviroli D, Seibert J (2017) Prediction of hydrographs and flow-duration curves in almost ungauged catchments: which runoff measurements are most informative for model calibration? J Hydrol 554:613–622
Post DA, Jakeman AJ (1999) Predicting the daily streamflow of ungauged catchments in SE Australia by regionalising the parameters of a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Ecol Model 123(2-3):91–104
Feldman (2000) Hydrologic modeling system HEC- HMS: technical reference manual. CPD-74B. US Army Corps of Engineers. Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, pp 145
Prasad AS, Pandey BW, Leimgruber W, Kunwar RM (2016) Mountain hazard susceptibility and livelihood security in the upper catchment area of the river Beas, Kullu Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India. Geoenviron Disasters 3(1):1–17
Qazi N (2020) Hydrological functioning of forested catchments, Central Himalayan Region, India. For Ecosyst 7:63. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-020-00275-8
Rao KN (2020) Analysis of surface runoff potential in ungauged basin using basin parameters and SCS-CN method. Appl Water Sci 10:47. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-019-1129-z
Rezaeianzadeh M, Stein A, Tabari H, Abghari H, Jalalkamali N, Hosseinipour E, Singh VP (2013) Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting. Int J Environ Sci Technol 10:1181–1192
Rodgers JL, Nicewander WA (1988) Thirteen ways to look at the correlation coefficient. The American Statistician 42(1):59–66
Scharffenberg, W.A. and Fleming, M.J. (2006). Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS: User’s manual. United States Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center.
Seibert J (1999) Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Agr For Meteorol 98:279–293
Sharma P, Machiwal D (2021) Streamflow forecasting: overview of advances in data-driven techniques. In: Sharma P, Machiwal D (eds) Advances in streamflow forecasting – from traditional to modern approaches. Elsevier, Netherlands, pp 1–48
Singh, G., Venkataramanan, C., and Sastry, G. (1981). Manual of soil and water conservation practices in India. Central Soil and Water Conservation Research and Training Institute, Dehradun, India, pp. 434.
Singh S, Dhote PR, Thakur PK, Chouksey A, Aggarwal SP (2021) Identification of flash-floods-prone river reaches in Beas river basin using GIS-based multi-criteria technique: validation using field and satellite observations. Nat Haz 105(4):1–23
Sivapalan M, Takeuchi K, Franks SW, Gupta VK, Karambiri H, Lakshmi V, Liang X, McDonnell JJ, Mendiondo EM, O’Connell PE, Oki T, Pomeroy JW, Schertzer D, Uhlenbrook S, Zehe E (2003) IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol Sci J 48(6):857–880
Strahler AN (1957) Quantitative analysis of watershed geomorphology. Trans Am Geophys Union 38:913–920
Subramanya K (2013) Engineering Hydrology. McGraw-Hill Education (India) Private Limited. New Delhi, pp 534
US-SCS (1986) Urban hydrology for small watersheds. Technical Release TR55, United States Soil Conservation Service (US-SCS), Washington DC, USA.
USACE-HEC (2000) Hydrologic Modeling System HEC- HMS: Applications Guide. CPD-74C. US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC), Davis, California, pp 108
van Emmerik T, Mulder G, Eilander G, Piet M, Savenije H (2015) Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment. Front Earth Sci 3:62. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00062
Wagener T, Wheater HS (2006) Parameter estimation and regionalization for continuous rainfall–runoff models including uncertainty. J Hydrol 320(1-2):132–154
Yilmaz AG, Imteaz MA, Ogwuda O (2012) Accuracy of HEC-HMS and LBRM models in simulating snow runoffs in upper Euphrates basin. J Hydrol Eng ASCE 17(2):342–347
Zhang Y, Vaze J, Chiew FH, Li M (2015) Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments. J Hydrol 525:72–86
Zelelew DG, Langon S (2020) Selection of appropriate loss methods in HEC-HMS model and determination of the derived values of the sensitive parameters for un-gauged catchments in Northern Ethiopia. Int J River Basin Manag 18(1):127–135
Zelelew DG, Melesse AM (2018) Applicability of a spatially semi-distributed hydrological model forwatershed scale runoff estimation in Northwest Ethiopia. Water 10(7):923
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which improved quality of an early version of this manuscript.
Funding
The funds received from DOES&T, Himachal Pradesh, India, to carry out this study are gratefully acknowledged.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Broder J. Merkel
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Prakasam, C., Saravanan, R., Machiwal, D. et al. Rainfall-runoff modeling using HEC-HMS model in an ungauged Himalayan catchment of Himachal Pradesh, India. Arab J Geosci 16, 417 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11519-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11519-6