Abstract
Groundwater is one of the most important sources of water supply in arid and semi-arid regions, but its availability with sustainable quantity and quality is threatened by various factors, among which climate and land-use change have the most important role. Therefore, it is essential to achieve reliable methods for predicting changes in aquifer storage to plan for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. This study aimed to estimate the potential impact of climate change and land use on the groundwater level of Hashtgerd plain for sustainable use of groundwater resources. In this regard, groundwater supply and demand for 2020 as the base year was simulated to forecast the trends until 2050 by considering climate and land-use changes. Five General Circulation Models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) were used to project future rainfall and temperature. The LARS-WG model was used to downscale the climatic data. Classification of land-use was performed using Landsat satellite images of 1990, 2005, and 2020 in ENVI 5.3 software. Then, by these maps, the Markov chain method implemented in TerrSet software was used to model land-use change for 2050. The indexes used to evaluate the model were the overall accuracy of prediction and the kappa coefficient. The overall accuracy of 94.34% and kappa coefficient of 0.92 were in the calibration stage and 86.34 and 0.82 in the validation stage, respectively. Finally, the effect of climate and land-use change on the decrease of groundwater level was simulated using the MODFLOW model for the period 2020–2050. RMSE and MAE values of steady-state calibration were 0.91 and 0.75, respectively. These values were estimated to be 0.97 and 0.8 in the calibration step for the unsteady-state and 1.01 and 0.91, respectively, in the validation step. The results of climate change showed a decrease in the average annual precipitation and an increase in the average annual temperature. The annual temperature increased by 1.4 °C and 3.2 °C for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, by 2050. The annual precipitation decreased by 2.45% and 4.47% for both scenarios. The results of land-use change show an increase of residential, barren, and agricultural lands by 105, 41, and 8%, respectively, and a decrease of 94% in pastures lands. The future land-use change reduced aquifer reserve by up to 41%. The combined impacts of climate and land-use change in the most critical state reduced aquifer reserve by 61%.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of Data and Materials
Authors have no restrictions on sharing data.
Abbreviations
- GCMs :
-
General Circulation Models
- RCP :
-
Representative Concentration Pathways
- RMSE :
-
Root mean square error
- MAE :
-
Mean absolute error
- SWAT :
-
Soil and Water Assessment Tool
- PCC :
-
Panel on Climate Change
- WGs :
-
Weather generators
- LCM :
-
Land change modeling
- % :
-
Percent
- CA :
-
Cellular automata
- Eq. :
-
Equation
- Fig. :
-
Figure
- GIS :
-
Geographic information system
- GCPs :
-
Ground control points
- GPS :
-
Global Positioning System
- km :
-
Kilometer
- km 2 :
-
Square kilometer
- LULC :
-
Land use and land cover
- m :
-
Meter
- m 2 :
-
Square meter
- McM :
-
Million cubic meter
- mm :
-
Millimeter
- OLI :
-
Operational land imager
- TM :
-
Thematic mapper
References
Abdollahi K, Bashir I, Verbeiren B, Harouna MR, Van Griensven A, Huysmans M, Batelaan O (2017) A distributed monthly water balance model: formulation and application on Black Volta Basin. Environ Earth Sci 76(5):198. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6512-1
Adhikari RK, Mohanasundaram S, Shrestha S (2020) Impacts of land-use changes on the groundwater recharge in the Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Environ Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109440
Afzal M, Ragab R (2019) Drought risk under climate and land use changes: implication to water resource availability at catchment scale. Water 11(9):1790. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091790
Aggarwal S, Gary V, Gupta B, Nikman R, Thakur P (2012) Climate and land use change scenarios to study the impact on the hydrological regime. Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XXXIX-B8, 147–152. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-XXXIX-B8-147-2012
Akram R, Turan V, Wahid A et al (2018) Paddy land pollutants and their role in climate change. Soil Biology 53. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93671-0_7
Andaryani S, Nourani V, Pradhan B et al (2022) Spatiotemporal evaluation of future groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios. Hydrol Sci J 67:6. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2050732
Asadzadeh F, KhosraviAqdam K, Parviz L, Ramazanpour H, YaghmaeianMahabadi N (2018) Prediction of the land use change using Markov chain and cellular automata (case study: Roze Chay basin, Uremia). J Soil Water Resour Conserv 8(1):105–116. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22517480.1397.8.1.7.4
Birhanu A, Masih I, van der Zaag P, Nyseen J, Cai X (2019) Impacts of land-use and land cover changes on the hydrology of the Gumara catchment, Ethiopia. Phys Chem Earth 2019(112):165–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2019.01.006
Boumaiza L, Walter J, Chesnaux R et al (2022) Groundwater recharge over the past 100 years: regional spatiotemporal assessment and climate change impact over the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, Canada. Hydrol Process 36:3. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14526
Chang J (2007) Stochastic processes. Overseas India Press, New Delhi
Chimdessa K, Quraishi S, Kebede A, Alamirew A (2019) Effect of land-use land cover and climate change on river flow and soil loss in Didessa River Basin, South West Blue Nile, Ethiopia. Hydrology 6:2. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6010002
Dau QV, Momblanch A, Adeloye AJ (2021) Adaptation by Himalayan water resource system under a sustainable socioeconomic pathway in a high-emission context. J Hydrol Eng 26(3):04021003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002064
Dubois E, Larocque M, Gagné S, Braun M (2021) Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge in cold and humid climates: controlling processes and thresholds. Climate 10:6. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10010006
Eastman JR (2006) IDRISI Andes tutorial. Clark Labs, Worcester Fawaz M (1980) Introduction to the organization of the city: initial modern city planning. Institute of Arab Development, Arriyadh, pp 41–49
Ehteshami M, Aghasi A, Rezaei RA (2002) Investigating the evolution of groundwater potential in Hashtgerd plain in the last ten years and its causes. J Environ Sci Technol 4(2):61–74 (In Persian)
Fahad S, Sönmez O, Saud S, Wang D, Wu C, Adnan M, Turan V (2021a) Climate change and plants: biodiversity, growth and interactions. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003108931
Fahad S, Sönmez O, Saud S, Wang D, Wu C, Adnan M, Turan V (2021b) Developing climate-resilient crops: improving global food security and safety. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003109037
Fahad S, Sönmez O, Saud S et al (2021c) Plant growth regulators for climate-smart agriculture. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003109013
Fahad S, Sönmez O, Saud S et al (2021d) Sustainable soil and land management and climate change. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003108894
Fahad S, Adnan M, Saud S, Nie L (2022) Climate Change and Ecosystems, Challenges to Sustainable Development. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003286400
Giorgetta MA et al (2013) Climate and Carbon Cycle Changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM Simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5: Climate Changes in MPI-ESM. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5:572–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038
Ghimire U, Shrestha S, Neupane S et al (2021) Climate and land-use change impacts on spatiotemporal variations in groundwater recharge: a case study of the Bangkok Area, Thailand. Sci Total Environ 792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148370
Guptha GC, Swain S, Al-Ansari N, Taloor AK, Dayal D (2021) Evaluation of an urban drainage system and its resilience using remote sensing and GIS. Remote Sens Appl Soc Environ 23:100601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100601
Guptha GC, Swain S, Al-Ansari N, Taloor AK, Dayal D (2022) Assessing the role of SuDS in resilience enhancement of urban drainage system: a case study of Gurugram City India. Urb Clim 41:101075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101075
Hazeleger W, Severijns C, Semmler T et al (2010) EC-Earth A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1357–1363. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1
IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers in climate change. The physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change Cambridge university press. Cambridge. United Kingdom and New York. NY, USA.2013:1–33
Islam K, Rahman MF, Jashimuddin M (2018) Modeling land-use change using cellular automata and artificial neural network: the case of Chunati Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh. Ecol Indic 88:439–453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.01.047
Jokar Arsanjani J, Helbich M, KainzW DA (2013) Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion—the case of Tehran. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 21:265–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.014
Lamichhane S, Shakya NM (2020) Shallow aquifer groundwater dynamics due to land-use/cover change in highly urbanized basin: the case of Kathmandu Valley. J Hydrol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100707
Liaqat MU, Mohamed MM et al (2021) Impact of land use/land cover changes on groundwater resources in Al Ain region of the United Arab Emirates using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 14:100587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100587
Li P, Wu J, Qian H (2016) Preliminary assessment of hydraulic connectivity between river water and shallow groundwater and estimation of their transfer rate during dry season in the Shidi River China. Environ Earth Sci 75(2):99
Li P, Tian R, Xue C, Wu J (2017) Progress, opportunities, and key fields for groundwater quality research under the impacts of human activities in China with a special focus on western China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(15):13224–13234
Mango L, Melesse A, McClain M, Gann D, Setegn S (2011) Land use and climate change impacts on hydrology of upper Mara river basin, Kenya: result of modeling study to suport better ressource management. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:2245–2258. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2245-2011
Marhaento H, Booij MJ, Hoekstra AJ (2018) Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment. Hydrol Sci J 63:1368–1385. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1511054
Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ, Culverwell ID et al (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. Geosci Model Dev 4:723–757. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011
Mehrazar A, MassahBavani A, Mashal M, Rahimikhoob H (2018) Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture of the Hashtgerd plain with emphasis of AR5 models uncertainty. Irrig Sci Eng 41(3):45–59. https://doi.org/10.22055/JISE.2018.13747
Mohammadrezapourtabari M, Morsali M, Nouri H (2008) Locating susceptible areas for the implementation of artificial aquifer recharge plans using GIS (Case study: Hashtgerd plain), 4th National Congress on Civil Engineering. University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran (In Persian)
Mortazavizadeh FS, Godarzi M (2018) Evaluation of climate change impacts on surface runoff and groundwater using HadGEM2 climatological model (case study: Hashtgerd). J Water Soil 32(2):433–446. https://doi.org/10.22067/JSW.V32I2.67160
Nair SC, Mirajkar A (2021) Land use-land cover anomalies and groundwater pattern with climate change for Western Vidarbha: a case study. Arab J Geosci 14:452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06823-y
Nyembo OL, Larbi I, Mwabumba M et al (2021) Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the lake Manyara catchment, Tanzania. Sci Afr 15:e01072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e01072
Purandara BK, Venkatesh B, Jose MK, Chandramohan T (2018) Change of Land-use/Land Cover on Groundwater Recharge in Malaprabha Catchment, Belagavi, Karnataka, India. Part of the Water Science and Technology Library book series (WSTL, volume 76). In book: Groundwater (pp 109–120). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5789-2_9
Reynolds L (2013) Agriculture and livestock remain major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Worldwatch Institute, Washington, p 18
Salehi N, Ekhtesasi MR, Talebi A (2019) Predicting locational trend of land use changes using CA-Markov model (Case study: Safarod Ramsar watershed). J RS GIS Nat Resour 10(1):106–120
Semenov VA, Park W, Latif M (2009) Barents Sea inflow shutdown: A new mechanism for rapid climate changes. Geophys Res Lett 36(14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038911
Sundara Kumar K, Padma Kumari K, Udaya Bhaskar P (2016) Application of Markov chain and cellular automatamodel for prediction of urban transitions. IEEE-International Conference on Electrical, Electronics, and Optimization Techniques (ICEEOT–2016) At: Chennai, India Volume: IEEE-Explore., pp 4007–4012. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEEOT.2016.7755466
Swain S, Mishra SK, Pandey A (2020a) Assessment of meteorological droughts over Hoshangabad district, India. In: IOP conference series: earth and environmental science. IOP Publishing, 491(1): 012012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/491/1/012012
Swain S, Sharma I, Mishra SK, Pandey A, Amrit K, Nikam V (2020b) A framework for managing irrigation water requirements under climatic uncertainties over Beed district, Maharashtra, India. In: World environmental and water resources congress 2020b: water resources planning and management and irrigation and drainage, VA: ASCE, Reston, pp 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784482957.001
Tamm O, Maasikamae S, Padari A, Tamm T (2018) Modelling the effects of land use and climate change on the water resources in the eastern Baltic Sea region using the SWAT model. CATENA 167:78–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.04.029
Tauqeer HM, Turan V, Farhad M, Iqbal M (2022) Sustainable agriculture and plant production by virtue of biochar in the era of climate change. Environment. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-5059-8_2
Tsarouchi G, Buytaert W (2018) Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22:1411–1435. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1411-2018
Watanabe S, Hajima T, Sudo K, Nagashima T, Takemura T, Okajima H, Nozawa T, Kawase H, Abe M, Yokohata T, Ise T, Sato H, Kato E, Takata K, Emori S, Kawamiya M (2011) MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci Model Dev 4:845–872. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011
Yang W, Long D, Bai P (2019) Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China. J Hydrol 570:201–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.055
Yifru BA, Chung M, KimM, Chang SW (2021) Assessing the effect of land/use land cover and climate change on water yield and groundwater recharge in East African Rift Valley using integrated model. J Hydrol 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100926
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Broder J. Merkel
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Hanifehlou, A., Javadi, S., Hosseini, A. et al. Simulation of the impacts of climate and land-use change on groundwater level in the Hashtgerd plain, Iran. Arab J Geosci 16, 428 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11510-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11510-1