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Observed and projected precipitation changes in the zones of monitoring lakes of Kazakhstan

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Abstract

The manuscript provides an assessment of precipitation changes in Kazakhstan over the period 1941–2020, also calculated the trend component for the period 1976–2018. Prediction of rainfall amount based on two scenarios RCP 2.6 and 4.5. The study is very important for Kazakhstan, which is vulnerable to present and future climate change. There are many lakes in the Republic of Kazakhstan with different quality and quantity of water. In this regard, in work the features of the temporal distribution of precipitation in 6 water basins, where the monitoring lakes of Kazakhstan are located. In winter, the tendency to increase in atmospheric precipitation for the period 1976–2020 is traced in all water basins, with exception of the Shu-Talas basin, and a statistically significant increase in precipitation by 5.2 mm/10 years observed only on the territory of the Balkash-Alakol basin. According to the forecast data, an increase in precipitation is also expected in winter, with the exception of a statistically significant decrease in precipitation (10–20%, RCP 2.6) in the Balkash-Alakol basin. In spring, a statistically significant increase in the amount of atmospheric precipitation is noted in the Zhaiyk-Caspian, Esil basins in the range from 7.9 … to 8.9%/10 years. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, an upward trend in precipitation is also expected in these areas. In summer, in the Nura-Sarysu basin, there is a positive trend of precipitation by 7.3%/10 years, and according to both scenarios precipitation in the Nura-Sarysu, basin will increase by 10–50%. In autumn, a decrease in the amount of atmospheric precipitation is traced in the Zhaiyk-Caspian basin by 4.9%/10 years; according to the forecast in November (RCP 2.6) and October (RCP 4.5), a decrease in precipitation is expected by 20–30%.

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Funding

The work was funded by the Science and Education Committee under the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the framework of grant funding for scientific and technical projects for 2021–2023. Grant No. AP09260361 “Geoecological monitoring of the deposit environment of Ile river delta and ‘Ile-Balkash’ State Natural Reserve.”

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi avenue 71, 050000-050063, Almaty, Kazakhstan

    Meruyert Kurmanova

  2. Institute of Geography of the Republic of Kazakhstan, st. Pushkin 99, 050000-050063, Almaty, Kazakhstan

    Azamat Madibekov

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  1. Meruyert Kurmanova
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  2. Azamat Madibekov
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Correspondence to Meruyert Kurmanova.

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Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang

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Kurmanova, M., Madibekov, A. Observed and projected precipitation changes in the zones of monitoring lakes of Kazakhstan. Arab J Geosci 15, 1412 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10669-3

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