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Spatiotemporal variability and trend analysis of rainfall in Beshilo sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile (Abbay) Basin of Ethiopia

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Abstract

Rainfall variability is a common characteristic in Ethiopia that affects socioeconomic and ecological systems. In this study, we estimated the spatiotemporal variability and trend of rainfall from 1981 to 2019 in the Beshilo sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) using CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates. The coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) were used to assess rainfall variability. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were also employed to analyze the trend and extent of rainfall changes, respectively. The results showed that different rainfall events occurred in the catchment area, particularly on monthly and seasonal time scales. The annual rainfall CV ranges from 13.5–18.5% while the seasonal rainfall CV ranges from 15–40.6%, 36.5–85.7%, and 19–100.3% for the Kiremt (June–September), Belg (March–May), and Bega (October–February) seasons, respectively. The standardized anomaly index (SAI) also indicates the presence of moderate rainfall variability between the years with negative and positive anomalies in 53.84% and 46.15% of the years analyzed, respectively. On a seasonal basis, the negative SAI of rainfall is 48.7%, 53.84%, and 51.28% in the Kiremt, Belg, and Bega seasons, respectively. The trends of annual and Kiremt rainfall showed an increasing trend and decreasing trends in Belg and Bega rainfall were analyzed. The rising and declining trend for Kiremt and Bega rainfall was statistically significant (α = 0.05). Monthly, rainfall trends increased in all months except in February, March, April, and December. These results, therefore, highlight the need to plan and implement effective strategies for adapting to rainfall variability.

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Acknowledgements

This work is self-motivated research and has not been funded. The authors greatly acknowledge the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) for providing data used for validation in this study. The authors also would like to express their gratitude to the editor of the journal and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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  1. Department of Forestry, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Mekdela Amba University, Tuluawlia, Ethiopia

    Jemal Ali Mohammed & Zinet Alye Yimam

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Jemal Ali Mohammed: provide the main idea of the research, process and analyze the raw data, prepare the first version of the manuscript, and perform writing—review and editing; Zinet Alye Yimam: perform writing—review and editing.

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Mohammed, J.A., Yimam, Z.A. Spatiotemporal variability and trend analysis of rainfall in Beshilo sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile (Abbay) Basin of Ethiopia. Arab J Geosci 15, 1387 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10666-6

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