Abstract
The desertification affects more than 250,000 ha in the district of Errachidia (Morocco) and results in the expansion of desert landscapes such as the regs, hamadas, and dunes. The latter is a big concern in the district since it is the source of siltation, which threatens dwellings, cultivated lands, and water bodies. To better understand the phenomena, we analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of sand dunes until 2069 by applying the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model on a time series of sand dune areas calculated annually from 1987 to 2019 by computing the sand cover index (SCI) on Landsat satellite images. The results indicated that the area of sand dunes would increase by 1.7%/year between 2019 and 2069 in the district of Errachidia. Furthermore, we evaluated the influence of different natural and human factors such as temperature, precipitation, wind, vegetation, and population growth on sand dune dynamics using Spearman’s correlation test. We deduced from the test results that the factors influencing the sand dune expansion do not act individually. Indeed, temperature and precipitation act significantly on wind and vegetation respectively, to influence the dynamics of sand dune in hyper-arid areas where the soil is bare or poorly covered with vegetation, where precipitation is low and where temperature is high. Moreover, Spearman’s correlation test revealed that population growth is not significantly correlated with the dynamics of sand dunes. However, well-planned, conducted, and regulated human practices can help reduce silting up in desert areas.
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig1_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig2_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig3_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig4_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig5_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig6_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig7_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs12517-021-08423-2/MediaObjects/12517_2021_8423_Fig8_HTML.png)
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aba A, Al-Dousari AM, Ismaeel A (2018) Atmospheric deposition fluxes of 137Cs associated with dust fallout in the northeastern Arabian Gulf. J Environ Radioact 192:565–572. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2018.05.010
Abd El-Wahab RH, Al-Rashed AR, Al-Dousari A (2018) Influences of physiographic factors, vegetation patterns and human impacts on aeolian landforms in arid environment. Arid Ecosyst 8(2):97–110. https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079096118020026
Abdellaoui A, and Marmi R 2010. Mise en evidence de mouvements de sable à partir d’images satellitales; application au piemont sud de l’atlas saharien (Algerie) ; Ann Univ Bucharest: Geography Series. 10.
Abdellaoui A, and Rougab A (1997). Caractérisation du bâti en zone de transition montagne-plaine : cas de l’agglomération blidéenne (Algérie), Télédétection des milieux urbains et périurbains, AUPELF/UREF Ed, 75-83.
Adams S, Bamanga M (2020) Modelling and forecasting seasonal behavior of precipitation in Abuja, Nigeria; a SARIMA approach. Am J Math Stat 10(1):10–19. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ajms.20201001.02
Ahmed M Al-Dousari N A, Al-Dousari. 2016. The role of dominant perennial native plant species in controlling the mobile sand encroachment and fallen dust problem in Kuwait. Arab J Geosci 12112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2216-6
Aït Hamza M, & El Faskaoui B (2010). Les oasis du Drâa au Maroc : Rupture des équilibres environnementaux et stratégies migratoires ; Hommes et migrations : Revue française de référence sur les dynamiques migratoires ; 1284 | 2010 Migrations et environnement. 56-69.
Al-Awadhi JM, Al-Dousari A, Al-Enezi A (2000) Barchan dunes in northern Kuwait. Arab Gulf J Sci Res 1:32–40
Al-Dousari AM (2005) Causes and indicators of land degradation in the north-western part of Kuwait. Arab Gulf J Sci Res (1989) 23(2):69–79
Al-Dousari AM, Al-Hazza A (2013) Physical properties of aeolian sediments within major dune corridor in Kuwait. Arab J Geosci 6(2):519–527. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-011-0353-0
Al-Dousari AM, Pye K (2005) Mapping and monitoring of dunes in northwestern Kuwait. Kuwait J Sci Eng 32(2):119–134
Al-Dousari AM, Ahmed M, Al-Senafy M, Al-Mutairi M (2008) Characteristics of nabkhas in relation to dominant perennial plant species in Kuwait. Kuwait J Sci Eng 35(1):129–150
Al-Dousari AM, Aba A, Al-Awadhi S, Ahmed M, Al-Dousari N (2016) Temporal and spatial assessment of pollen, radionuclides, minerals and trace elements in posited dust within Kuwait. Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2182-z
Al-Dousari AM, Alsaleh A, Ahmed M, Misak R, Al-Dousari N, Al-Shatti F, Elrawi M, William T (2019a) Off-road vehicle tracks and grazing points in relation to soil compaction and land degradation. Earth Syst Environ 3(3):471–482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00115-y
Al-Dousari AM, Ahmed M, Al-Dousari N, Al-Awadhi S (2019b) Environmental and economic importance of native plants and green belts in controlling mobile sand and dust hazards. Int J Environ Sci Technol 16:2415–2426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-018-1879-4
Al-Dousari AM, Pye K, Al-Hazza A, Al-Shatti F, Ahmed M, Al-Dousari N, Rajab M (2020) Nanosize inclusions as a fingerprint for aeolian sediments. J Nanopart Res 22:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11051-020-04825-7
Al-Ghadban AN, Saeed T, Al-Refaiy I, Al-Shemmari H, Al-Mutairi M, & Al-Dousari AM 2000. The potential impact of draining the Iraqi marshes on the sediment budget and associated pollutants in the Northern Gulf. Final Report, Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences KISR, 5782.
Al-Shemmari H, Al-Dousari AM, Talebi L, Al-Ghadban AN (2013) Mineralogical characteristics of surface sediments along Sulaibikhat Bay, Kuwait. Kuwait J Sci Eng 40(2):159–176
Ash JE, Wasson RJ (1983) Vegetation and sand mobility in the Australian sand dunefield. Zeitschrift für Geomorphol Supplement Band 45:7–25
Atlas R, Hoffman RN, Ardizzone J, Leidner SM, Jusem JC, Smith DK, Gombos D (2011) A cross-calibrated, multiplatform ocean surface wind velocity product for meteorological and oceanographic applications. Bull Am Meteorol Soc (BAMS) 92:157–174. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2946.1
Ayoub AT (1998) Extent, severity and causative factors of land degradation in the Sudan. J Arid Environ 38(3):397–409. https://doi.org/10.1006/jare.1997.0346
Barbero-Sierra C, Marques MJ, Ruíz-Pérez M (2013) The case of urban sprawl in Spain as an active and irreversible driving force for desertification. J Arid Environ 20:95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.10.014
Blott SJ, Al-Dousari AM, Pye K, Saye SE (2004) Three-dimensional characterization of sand grain shape and surface texture using a nitrogen gas adsorption technique. J Sediment Res 74(1):156–159. https://doi.org/10.1306/052403740156
Breckle S-W, Yair A, and Veste M (2008). Arid sand dune ecosystems: the Nizzana sands in the Negev Desert. Springer. 475. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75498-5
Brownlee J (2018) 11 Classical time series forecasting methods in Python (Cheat Sheet). https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting-methods-in-python-cheat-sheet/. Accessed 2 Nov 2019
Clarke ML, Rendell HM (2011) Atlantic storminess and historical sand drift in Western Europe: implications for future management of coastal dunes. J Coast Conserv 15:227–236
Darkoh M (1994) Population, environment and sustainable development: desertification in Africa. Desertification Control Bull 25:20–26
Darkoh MB (1998) The nature, causes and consequences of desertification in the drylands of Africa. Land Degrad Dev 9(1):1–20. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-145X(199801/02)9:1<1::AID-LDR263>3.0.CO;2-8
De Wever, P., and Duranthon, F. 2015. Voyage d'un grain de sable. EDP Sci 96.
Dong Z, Chen G, He X, Han Z, Wang X (2004) Controlling blown sand along the highway crossing the Taklimakan Desert. J Arid Environ 57:329–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2002.02.001
Durán O, Herrmann H (2006) Vegetation against sand dune mobility. Phys Rev Lett 97(18):188001. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.97.188001
El Wahidi F, Mounir F, Sabir M, Defourny P, Ponette Q (2011) Modélisation logistique et analyse multivariée pour l’élaboration des indicateurs de suivi de la dynamique de dégradation qualitative : cas de l’arganeraie (Maroc), Actes du Premier Congrès International de l’Arganier, Agadir, Maroc
Evan AT, Flamant C, Lavaysse C, Kocha C, Saci A (2015) Water vapor–forced greenhouse warming over the Sahara Desert and the recent recovery from the Sahelian drought. J Clim 28:108–123. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1
Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Shukla S, Husak G, Rowland J, Harrison L, Hoell A, Michaelsen J (2015) The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Sci Data 2(150066). https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66
Funk C, Peterson P, Peterson S, Shukla S, Davenport F, Michaelsen J, Knapp KR, Landsfeld M, Husak G, Harrison L, Rowland J, Budde M, Meiburg A, Dinku T, Pedreros D, Mata N (2019) A high-resolution 1983-2016 Tmax climate data record based on 2 InfraRed Temperatures and Stations by the Climate Hazard Center. American Meteorological Society. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0698.1
Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2004) Dynamic causal patterns of desertification. BioScience. 54(9):817–829. https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0817:DCPOD]2.0.CO;2
Girma T (2001) Land degradation: a challenge to Ethiopia. Environ Manag 28(6):815–824. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010190
Guan Q, Guan W, Yang J, Zhao S, Pan B, Wang L, Song N, Lu M, Li F (2016) Spatial and temporal changes in desertification in the southern region of the Tengger Desert from 1973 to 2009. Theor Appl Climatol 17:129–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1798-6
Guedegbe T, Sinsin T, Doukkali M (2018) Is land degradation neutrality in Africa possible? OCP Policy Center. Policy Brief 18(31):9
Hao X, Weihong Li W, Deng H (2016) The oasis effect and summer temperature rise in arid regions - case study in Tarim Basin. Sci Rep 6(35418):1. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35418
HCEFLCD (High Commission for Water and Forests and Combating Desertification). (2001). Programme d'Action National de Lutte Contre la Désertification (PAN-LCD) : Mise en oeuvre du programme d’Action National de lutte contre la désertification au Maroc. 59.
Hess T, Stephens W, Thomas G (1996) Modeling NDVI from decadal precipitation data in the north east arid zone of Nigeria. J Environ Manag 48(3):249–261. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.1996.0076
Hoekstra TW, & Shachak M (1999). Arid lands management: toward ecological sustainability. University of Illinois Press; 1st Printing edition. 296.
Hongxiang L, Yang Y, Cheng Y, Jin Y, Luo H, Liang Z (2020) Application of time series model in relative humidity prediction. J Phys Conf Ser 1584(012017):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1584/1/012017
Hugenholtz CH, Wolfe SA (2005) Biogeomorphic model of dunefield activation and stabilization on the northern Great Plains. Geomorphology. 70(1-2):53–70
IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte V P, Zhai H-O Pörtner D, Roberts J, Skea PR, Shukla A, Pirani W, Moufouma-Okia C, Péan R, Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy T, Maycock M, Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.).
Kaur S, Rakshit M (2019) Seasonal and periodic autoregressive time series models used for forecasting analysis of precipitation data. Int J Adv Res Eng Technol 10(1):230–242
Kawabata A, Ichii K, Yamaguchi Y (2001) Global monitoring of interannual changes in vegetation activities using NDVI and its relationships to temperature and precipitation. Int J Remote Sens 22(7):1377–1382. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160010028490
Khan NY, Saeed T, Al-Ghadban AN, Beg MU, Jacob PG, Al-Dousari AM, Al-Shemmari H, Al-Mutairi M, Al-Obaid T, Al-Matrouk K, (1999). Assessment of sediment quality in Kuwait’s territorial waters, phase 1: Kuwait Bay. Report No. KISR 5651, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait.
Kochanski K, Mohan D, Horrall J, Rountree B, Abdulla G (2019) Deep learning predictions of sand dune migration. Tackling climate change with machine learning workshop (NeurIPS 2019), Vancouver, Canada. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.10798.pdf. Accessed 3 Jan 2020
Krishna RS, Korra SB, Santosh KD, Abhirup A, (2019). Time series based air pollution forecasting using SARIMA and Prophet model. Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Information Technology and Computer Communications (ITCC). 80–85. https://doi.org/10.1145/3355402.3355417
Kumar A (2020) Forecating of temperature by using time series analysis. Int J Res Anal Rev 7(1):547–551
Lai Y, Dzombak D (2020) Use of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast near-term regional temperature and precipitation. Weather Forecast 35:959–976. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0158.1
Laki SL (2009) Desertification in the Sudan: causes, effects and policy options. Int J Sust Dev World 1:198–205. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509409469874
Lancaster N, Baas A (1998) Influence of vegetation cover on sand transport by wind: field studies at Owens Lake, California. Earth Surf Process Landf 23(1):69–82. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199801)23:13.0.CO;2-G
Loireau M, Sghaier M, Fétoui M, Ba M, Abdelrazik M, D’herbes J-M, Desconnets, J.- C., Leibovici, D., Debard, S., & Delaître, E. (2007) Système d’Information sur l’Environnement à l’échelle locale (SIEL) pour évaluer le risque de désertification : situations comparées circum-sahariennes (réseau ROSELT). Surveillance à LT dans les zones arides et semi-arides. Sci et Changements Planét /Sécheresse 18(4):328–335. https://doi.org/10.1684/sec.2007.0104
Malo AR, Nicholson SE (1990) A study of the precipitation and vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel using the normalized difference vegetation index. J Arid Environ 19(1):1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-1963(18)30825-5
Misak, R., Al-Dousari, A., & Al-Hagraf, S. 2007. Combating land degradation using eco-friendly materials. In International conference on desertification control in the arid region, 12-15.
Mwana SO, Hajime K (2021) Comparison between the Holt-Winters and SARIMA models in the prediction of NDVI in an arid region in Kenya using pixel-wise NDVI time series. Acad J Res Sci Publ 2(23):1–15
Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2007) Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) 11:1633–1644. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007
Portnov BA, Safriel U (2004) Combating desertification in the Negev: dryland agriculture vs. dryland urban areas. J Arid Environ 56(4):659–680. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-1963(03)00087-9
Prabhakaran S. (2019). ARIMA model – complete guide to time series forecasting in Python. https://www.machinelearningplus.com/time-series/arima-model-time-series-forecasting-python/. Accessed 5 Jan 2020
Pye K, Tsoar H (1990) Aeolian sand and sand dunes. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 396. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-85910-9
Rondeaux G, Steven M, Baret F (1996) Optimization of soil-adjusted vegetation indices. Remote Sens Environ 55(2):95–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(95)00186-7
Silva R (2020) Generalized autoregressive neural network models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.05676. Accessed 4 Feb 2020
Subramaniam N, Al-Sudairawi M, Al-Dousari A, Al-Dousari N (2015) Probability distribution and extreme value analysis of total suspended particulate matter in Kuwait. Arab J Geosci 8(12):11329–11344
Thomas D, Knight M, Wiggs G (2005) Remobilization of southern African desert sand dune systems by twenty-first century global warming. Nat Publ Group 435(7046):1218–1221. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03717
Tsoar H (2005) Sand dunes mobility and stability in relation to climate. Physica A: statistical mechanics and its applications 357(1):50–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.05.067
UNCED. 1992. Report on the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio, Agenda 21. 344.
Wang X, Chen F, Dong Z, Xia D (2005) Evolution of the southern Mu Us Desert in North China over the past 50 years: an analysis using proxies of human activity and climate parameters. Land Degrad Dev 15:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.663
Wang X, Chen F, Dong Z (2006) The relative role of natural and human factors in desertification in semi-arid China. Glob Environ Chang 16:48–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.06.006
Wang X, Chen F, Hasi E, Li J (2008) Desertification in China: an assessment. Earth Sci Rev 88:188–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.02.001
Wang X, Yang Y, Dong Z, Zhang C (2009) Responses of sand dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century. Glob Planet Chang 67:167–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.02.004
Wasson RJ, Hyde R (1983) Factors determining desert sand dune type. Nature. 304(28):337–339. https://doi.org/10.1038/304337a0
Wolfe SA, Nickling WC (1993) The protective role of sparse vegetation in wind erosion. Prog Phys Geogr 17(1):50–68. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339301700104
Yizhaq H, Ashkenazy Y, Tsoar H (2007) Why do active and stabilized sand dunes coexist under the same climatic conditions? Phys Rev Lett 98(18):188001–188004. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.188001
Yizhaq H, Ashkenazy Y, Levin N, Tsoar H (2013) Spatiotemporal model for the progression of transgressive dunes. Physica A 32:4502–4515
Acknowledgements
Our sincerest thanks to the German International Development Cooperation Agency (GIZ), the National Agency for Oasis and Argan Areas Development (ANDZOA), and the National Forestry School of Engineers (ENFI) for their support.
We thank Professor Brice Sinsin for the helpful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.
We are also grateful to Dr. Martin B. Bagaram for reviewing and commenting the last version of the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel
Supplementary Information
ESM 1
(DOCX 157 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sinsin, T., Mounir, F. & El Aboudi, A. Modeling and assessing driving factors of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the sand dunes in the district of Errachidia, Morocco. Arab J Geosci 14, 2111 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08423-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08423-2