Abstract
Extreme precipitation is considered one of the deadliest events causing climatological catastrophes around the globe. With the upsurge in global temperature, the chances of unprecedented events are increasing, continually escalating implications on society. The paper’s native aim is to understand the spatial-temporal variability of extreme precipitation indices connected with global oscillations over Srinagar city in central Kashmir, India. For the quantification of extreme precipitation, three types of precipitation indices based on percentile threshold and six types of fixed threshold indices have been utilized over the study region. Trend analysis has been performed on these extreme precipitation indices along with the Lag correlation technique to see the interference of these events with three global oscillation indices (El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)). The observations depicted that the daily precipitation over the study region falls in the range of 5 to 30 mm, with 50-mm precipitation to be considered unprecedented as it shows maximum correlations with the discharge. Hence, precipitation of such intensity can cause flood situations in the study area. On observing the trend in these extreme precipitation indices, it is found that a slightly increasing trend exists in all extreme precipitation indices, with consecutive dry days showing a decreasing trend. The ENSO and PDO are positively correlated with all extreme precipitation indices in zero-lag primarily, while AMO only affects R_30–50 in a positive way. This study can be helpful for the flood forecasting system and assist in managing the water resources system, as it has quantified the precipitation excess and deficit years.
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Dar, J., Nabi, S., Dar, A.Q. et al. The anatomy of extreme precipitation events over Srinagar, Kashmir, India, over the past 50 years. Arab J Geosci 14, 1412 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07820-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07820-x