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Trend and change point detection in mean annual and seasonal maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia

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Abstract

Spatio-temporal variation associated with temperature can impact water availability and sustainability of the ecosystem. In this study, we investigated the trend and change point occurrences in annual mean of daily maximum temperature (AMMT) and seasonal mean of daily maximum temperature (SMMT) based on 24 meteorological stations during the period of 1985–2018 located in Saudi Arabia. Out of 24 stations, 11 stations are located in the North-East quadrant (NE-Region), and the remaining 13 stations are located in the Western part of Saudi Arabia (W-Region). The trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall (MK) and modified MK (with autocorrelation correction) tests, and Sen’s slope was used to estimate the trend magnitude in the AMMT and SMMT time series. In addition, the sequential MK test was employed to detect abrupt changes, beginning of significant trends, and trend fluctuations in AMMT and SMMT time series. It was observed that 69% of the evaluated time series (AMMT and SMMT) have significant increasing (warming) trends. It was found that the AMMT trend magnitude over Saudi Arabia is 0.047 °C/year during the evaluated period. It was also observed that the NE-Region has higher warming rates in all the seasons. In both regions, the highest (lowest) warming was during the Spring (Autumn) season. Overall, the sequential MK test found that an abrupt change in the AMMT series occurred in 1998. The stations located in the W-Region showed an earlier abrupt change (1997) and the start of significant trend (1999) in the AMMT time series.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA

    Saleh H. Alhathloul, Abdul A. Khan & Ashok K. Mishra

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  1. Saleh H. Alhathloul
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  2. Abdul A. Khan
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Correspondence to Ashok K. Mishra.

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Responsible editor: Zhihua Zhang

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Alhathloul, S.H., Khan, A.A. & Mishra, A.K. Trend and change point detection in mean annual and seasonal maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia. Arab J Geosci 14, 1129 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07454-z

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