Abstract
Assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks under different land uses and future climate change (CC) conditions is important to provide better land use planning strategies. In South and Southeast Asia, Quercus forests are widely distributed but are exploited as a source of raw materials and shifting cultivation. Rice is a major staple food grain crop, often cultivated with terracing as upland rice. However, few studies on SOC stocks and simulated SOC dynamics under climate change conditions are available in these regions for these important land uses. Here, we present a case study related to Manipur state in North East region (NER) of India. We used the RothC model to evaluate the short-term changes of SOC stocks in Quercus forests and nearby upland rice fields and the effects of CC on SOC stocks, based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two CO2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) during three 20-year time periods. Under CC conditions (2019–2078), results differed among land uses, GCMs, RCPs, and time periods, and Quercus forests were more sensitive to climate change than upland rice. For Quercus forests, as average of all GCMs and RCPs, SOC decreased by 0.42 t C ha−1 year−1 in the first time period and by 0.17 t C ha−1 year−1 as sixty years average. In upland rice, SOC decreased by 0.20 t C ha−1 year−1 in the first time period and by 0.12 t C ha−1 year−1 as sixty years average. Results indicated that management strategies for Quercus forests and upland rice are needed for CC mitigation and adaptation particularly in very close CC scenarios.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Not applicable.
Code availability
Not applicable.
References
Anonymous (2009). Baseline survey of minority concentrated districts. District Report SENAPATI. Study Commissioned by Ministry of Minority Affairs Government of India, pp. 41
Athokpam H, Wani SH, Kamei D, Athokpam HS, Nongmaithem J, Kumar D, Singh JK, Naorem BS, Devi TR, Devi L (2013) Soil macro-and micro-nutrient status of Senapati district, Manipur (India). Afr J Agric Res 8(39):4932–4936. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2012.2151
Barah BC, Pandey S (2005) Rainfed rice production systems in Eastern India: an on-farm diagnosis and policy alternatives. Indian J Agric Econ 60(1):110–136
Blake GR, & Hartge KH (1986). Bulk density. In A. Klute (Ed.), Methods of Soil Analysis Part 1, Physical and Mineralogical Methods (pp. 951–984). SSSA Book Series No.5, 2nd edn. SSSA and ASA, Madison, Wisconsin
Bonan GB (2008) Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science 320:1444–1449. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121
Cerri CEP, Easter M, Paustian K, Killian K, Coleman K, Bernoux M, Falloon P, Powlson DS, Batjes N, Milne E, Cerri CC (2007) Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and century models. Agric Ecosyst Environ 122:46–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2007.01.007
Champion HG, Seth SK (1968) A revised survey of forest types of India. Government. of India Press, New Delhi, p 404
Chatterjee SP (1965). Physiography. The Gazetteer of India, Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, Government of India, Delhi, Vol 1
Chenu C, Angers DA, Barré P, Derrien D, Arrouays D, Balesdent J (2018) Increasing organic stocks in agricultural soils: knowledge gaps and potential innovations. Soil Tillage Res 188:41–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2018.04.011
Coleman K, Jenkinson DS (1996) RothC-26.3—a model for the turnover of carbon in soil. In Powlson DS, Smith P, Smith JU (Eds). Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter Models (pp. 237–246). NATO ASI Series (Series I: Global Environmental Change), vol 38. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61094-3_17
Coleman K, Jenkinson DS (2014) RothC — a model for the turnover of carbon in soil: model description and users guide (updated June 2014). Lawes Agricultural Trust, Harpenden https://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/sites/default/files/RothC_guide_WIN.pdf. Accessed 18 September 2020
Coleman K, Jenkinson DS, Crocker GJ, Grace PR, Klir J, Korschens M, Poulton PR, Richter DD (1997) Simulating trends in soil organic carbon in long-term experiments using RothC-26.3. Geoderma 81:29–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7061(97)00079-7
Devi TP, Durai AA, Singh TA, Gupta S, Mitra J, Pattanayak A, Sarma B, Das A (2008) Preliminary studies on physical and nutritional qualities of some indigenous and important rice cultivars of northeastern hill region of India. J Food Qual 31:686–700. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1745-4557.2008.00228.X
Falloon P, Smith P, Coleman K, Marshall S (1998) Estimating the size of the inert organic matter pool from total soil organic carbon content for use in the Rothamsted carbon model. Soil Biol Biochem 30:1207–1211. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0038-0717(97)00256-3
Francaviglia R, Coleman K, Whitmore AP, Doro L, Urracci G, Rubino M, Ledda L (2012) Changes in soil organic carbon and climate change — application of the RothC model in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean systems. Agric Syst 112:48–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy2007.07.001
Francaviglia R, Soleimani A, Massah Bavani AR, Hosseini SM, Jafari M (2019) Probability assessment of climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in future periods: a case study in Hyrcanian forests (Northern Iran). Eur J For Res 139(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-019-01228-9
Gee, G.W., & Bauder, J.W. (1986). Particle-size analysis. In A. Klute (Ed.), Methods of Soil Analysis Part 1, Physical and Mineralogical Methods (pp. 383–411). SSSA Book Series No.5, 2nd edn. SSSA and ASA, Madison, Wisconsin
Gilhespy SL, Anthony S, Cardenas L, Chadwick D, Prado AD, Li CS, Misselbrook T, Rees RM, Salas W, Sanz-Cobena A, Smith P, Tilston EL, Topp CFE, Vetter S, Yeluripati JB (2014) First 20 years of DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition): model evolution. Ecol Model 292:51–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.09.004
Gorissen A, Tietema A, Joosten NN, Estiarte M, Peñuelas J, Sowerby A, Emmett BA, Beier C (2004) Climate change affects carbon allocation to the soil in shrublands. Ecosystems 7:650–661. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-004-0218-4
Gottschalk P, Smith JU, Wattenbach M, Bellarby J, Stehfest E, Arnell N, Osborn TJ, Jones C, Smith P (2012) How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios. Biogeosciences 9:3151–3171. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3151-2012
IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp.
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, p 151
Jobbágy EG, Jackson RB (2000) The vertical distribution of soil organic carbon and its relation to climate and vegetation. Ecol Appl 10:423–436. https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[0423:TVDOSO]2.0.CO;2
Kaonga ML, Coleman K (2008) Modelling soil organic carbon turnover in improved fallows in eastern Zambia using the RothC-26.3 model. For Ecol Manag 256:1160–1166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.06.017
Kooch Y, Hosseini SM, Zaccone C, Jalilvand H, Hojjati SM (2012) Soil organic carbon sequestration as affected by afforestation: the Darab Kola forest (north of Iran) case study. J Environ Monit 14:2438–2446. https://doi.org/10.1039/C2EM30410D
Lal R (2008) Carbon sequestration. Philos Trans R Soc B: Biol Sci 363(1492):815–830. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.2185
Li C, Frolking S, Harriss R (1994) Modeling carbon biogeochemistry in agricultural soils. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 8:237–254. https://doi.org/10.1029/94GB00767
Lozano-García B, Muñoz-Rojas M, Parras-Alcántara L (2017) Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area. Sci Total Environ 579:1249–1259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.111
Mao R, Zeng DH, Ai GY, Yang D, Li LJ, Liu YX (2010) Soil microbiological and chemical effects of a nitrogen-fixing shrub in poplar plantations in semi-arid region of Northeast China. Eur J Soil Biol 46:325–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejsobi.2010.05.005
MEA (2005). Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, 137 pp.
Mishra G, Jangir A, Francaviglia R (2019) Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics under shifting cultivation and forests using RothC model. Ecol Model 396:33–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.01.016
Mishra G, Giri K, Jangir A, Francaviglia R (2020) Projected trends of soil organic carbon stocks in Meghalaya state of Northeast Himalayas, India. Implications for a policy perspective. Sci Total Environ 698:134266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134266
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900
Mosier AR (1998) Soil processes and global change. Biol Fertil Soils 27:221–229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003740050424
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models: part 1. A discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10(3):282–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
Nishimura S, Yonemura S, Sawamoto T, Shirato Y, Akiyama H, Sudo S, Yagi K (2008) Effect of land use change from paddy rice cultivation to upland crop cultivation on soil carbon budget of a cropland in Japan. Agric Ecosyst Environ 125(1–4):9–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2007.11.003
Palosuo T, Foereid B, Svensson M, Shurpali N, Lehtonen A, Herbst M, Linkosalo T, Ortiz C, Todorovic GR, Marcinkonis S (2012) A multi-model comparison of soil carbon assessment of a coniferous forest stand. Environ Model Softw 35:38–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.004
Parton WJ, Schimel DS, Cole C, Ojima D (1987) Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands. Soil Sci Soc Am J 51(5):1173–1179. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1987.03615995005100050015x
Paul KI, Polglase PJ, Richards GP (2003) Predicted change in soil carbon following afforestation or reforestation, and analysis of controlling factors by linking a C accounting model (CAMFor) to models of forest growth (3PG), litter decomposition (GENDEC) and soil C turnover (RothC). For Ecol Manag 177:485–501. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(02)00454-1
Racsko P, Szeidl L, Semenov M (1991) A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecol Model 57:27–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(91)90053-4
Rajashekara G, Fararoda R, Reddy RS, Jha CS, Ganeshaiah KN, Singh JS, Dadhwal VK (2018) Spatial distribution of forest biomass carbon (above and below ground) in Indian forests. Ecol Indic 85:742–752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.11.024
Ramakrishnan, P.S. (1992). Shifting agriculture and sustainable development. An interdisciplinary study from North-Eastern India. Man and the Biosphere Series, vol. 10, UNESCO, Paris
Roy SS, Ansari MA, Sharma SK, Sailo B, Devi CB, Singh IM, Das A, Chakraborty D, Arunachalam A, Prakash N, Ngachan SV (2018) Climate resilient agriculture in Manipur: status and strategies for sustainable development. Curr Sci 115(7):1342–1350. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v115/i7/1342-1350
Semenov MA, Brooks RJ, Barrow EM, Richardson CW (1998) Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Clim Res 10:95–107. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr010095
Shirato Y, Yagasaki Y, Nishida M (2011) Using different versions of the Rothamsted carbon model to simulate soil carbon in long-term experimental plots subjected to paddy–upland rotation in Japan. Soil Sci Plant Nutr 57(4):597–606. https://doi.org/10.1080/00380768.2011.591284
Singh VP, & Singh RK (2000). Rainfed Rice: a sourcebook of best practices and strategies in eastern India. Int Rice Res Instit, 292 pp.
Singh IM, Punitha P, Ansari MA, Roy SS, Sharma SK, Prakash N (2017) Status of shifting cultivation in Manipur: an overview. In: Prakash N, Roy SS, Ansari MA, Sharma SK, Punitha P, Sailo B, Singh IM (eds) Jhum improvement for sustaining farm livelihood and natural resource conservation in North Eastern Hill region. Vistas And Frontiers. ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Meghalaya, 110 pp
Singha K, & Mishra S (2015). Sustainability of rice cultivation: a study of Manipur. Rice Research, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.4172/2375-4338.1000159
Smith J, Smith P (2007) Introduction to environmental modelling. Oxford University Press, New York, 180 pp
Soleimani A, Hosseini SM, Massah Bavani AR, Jafari M, Francaviglia R (2017) Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran). Sci Total Environ 599:1646–1657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.077
Van Vuuren DP, Kok MTJ, Girod B, Lucas PL, de Vries B (2012) Scenarios in global environmental assessments: key characteristics and lessons for future use. Glob Environ Chang 22:884–895. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.001
Walkley A, Black IA (1934) An examination of the Degtjareff method for determining soil organic matter and a proposed modification of the chromic acid titration method. Soil Sci 37:29–38
Wei W, Chen D, Wang L, Daryanto S, Chen L, Yu Y, Lu Y, Sun G, Feng T (2016) Global synthesis of the classifications, distributions, benefits and issues of terracing. Earth Sci Rev 159(18):388–403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.06.010
Wen D, He NP (2016) Forest carbon storage along the north-south transect of eastern China: spatial patterns, allocation, and influencing factors. Ecol Indic 61:960–967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.054
Wilcove DS, Koh LP (2010) Addressing the threats to biodiversity from oil-palm agriculture. Biodivers Conserv 19:999–1007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-009-9760-x
Yadava PS, Singh EJ (1988) Some aspects of ecology of oak forests in Shiroy hills Manipur (North eastern India). Int J Ecol Environ Sci 14:103–113
Zhang L, Zheng Q, Liu Y, Liu S, Yu D, Shi X, Xing S, Chen H, Fan X (2019) Combined effects of temperature and precipitation on soil organic carbon changes in the uplands of eastern China. Geoderma 337:1105–1115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.11.026
Zhao J, Ma J, Hou M, Li S (2019) Spatial–temporal variations of carbon storage of the global forest ecosystem under future climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 25(4):603–624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-019-09882-5
Ziegler AD, Fox JM, Xu J (2009) The rubber juggernaut. Science 324:1024–1025. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173833
Funding
This study received financial support provided by the Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education (ICFRE), Dehradun, for supporting this research work through project RFRI-15/2008-09/SFM, and Forest Department, Government of Manipur, for funding CAMPA monitoring work to Rain Forest Research Institute.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel
Supplementary information
ESM 1
(DOCX 30 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mishra, G., Takhelmayum, M., Sarkar, A. et al. Simulating changes in soil carbon stocks for Quercus forests and upland rice fields under climate change scenarios in Manipur (India). Arab J Geosci 14, 886 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07264-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07264-3