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Projected drought pattern under climate change scenario using multivariate analysis

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Abstract

Drought is generally associated with variation in multi geomorphic-climatic variables rather than a single drought driver. Hence, it is better to consider all possible drought drivers for comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of historical and future drought in the region with an erratic, scant, and unstable climate like the south-west agricultural region of Pakistan. This study attempted to quantify the multivariable future drought projection based on project CMIP5 climatic data under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. The drought projection under the climate change scenario was performed in the historical segment (HS: 1996–2018) and two future segments (2019–2034 and 2035–2050) using trend analysis and composite drought index (CDI). The overall results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration tend to increase with an average relative value of ≥ 5% and in the case of precipitation, the ≥ 40% (relative average) decline was observed from HS to the future, which indicated an increase in numbers of drought in near future. Moreover, drought analysis also showed that the probability of occurrence and intensity of drought would increase in the near future, especially during 2019–2034. It was observed that the sub-regions, i.e., Sindh and Balochistan, would experience more intense long-term droughts as compared to Punjab. Hence, considering the future variation of drought, substantial attention is needed for contingency planning, mitigation, and adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of probable future drought on society in drought-prone agricultural areas of Pakistan.

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Funding

This study is financially supported by the Higher Education Commission, Pakistan under Startup Research Grant (SRGP-1695).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center of Excellence in Water Resources, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, 54890, Pakistan

    Muhammad Waseem, Ijaz Ahmad, Noor Muhammad Khan & Muhammad Kaleem Sarwar

  2. Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, 25120, Pakistan

    Muhammad Ajmal

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, 54890, Pakistan

    Noor Muhammad Khan

  4. Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 44000, Pakistan

    Muhammad Azam

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  1. Muhammad Waseem
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  2. Muhammad Ajmal
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  3. Ijaz Ahmad
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  4. Noor Muhammad Khan
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  5. Muhammad Azam
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  6. Muhammad Kaleem Sarwar
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Correspondence to Ijaz Ahmad.

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Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang

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Waseem, M., Ajmal, M., Ahmad, I. et al. Projected drought pattern under climate change scenario using multivariate analysis. Arab J Geosci 14, 544 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06860-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06860-7

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