Abstract
The north of Algeria is subject to floods generated directly by extreme rains. Detecting their trends, at different spatial and temporal scales, is a crucial step in the context of climate change. In this article, the Mann-Kendall method was used to detect the trends of maximum daily rains in 41 rainfall stations in the Macta watershed (North West Algeria) for a period of 41 years (1970–2010). The results show contrasting monthly trends; a significant increase, at the 5% (10%) confidence level, was detected in March, May, June, November, and December months, with 29% (7%), 24% (32%), 17% (24%), 12% (0%), and 10% (20%) of stations respectively. In terms of rain intensity, an increase was detected in April, July, August, September, October, and November. It is obvious that the months of August and September, representing the beginning of the autumn season, are marked by the greatest increases in the intensity of the rains justifying the catastrophic floods that hit our basin each year. The same significant upward trends are detected for autumn and winter, accompanied by an increase in quantities in the first season (autumn). Annually, a trend towards a significant increase trend, at 5% (10%) confidence level, in extreme rains with 20% (15%) of stations, was detected. Furthermore, a slight decrease in quantities was observed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdelkarim A, Gaber AFD (2019) Flood risk assessment of the Wadi Nu’man basin, Mecca, Saudi Arabia (during the period, 1988–2019) based on the integration of geomatics and hydraulic modeling: a case study. Water 2019(11):1887. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091887www.mdpi.com/journal/water. Accessed Jan 2020
Ahmad I, Zhang F, Tayyab M, Anjum MN, Zaman M, Liu J, Farid FU, Saddique Q (2018) Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and extreme values over upper Indus River basin. Atmos Res 213(2018):346–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.06.019
Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419(6903):224–232. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092
Almazroui M, Saeed S (2020) Contribution of extreme daily precipitation to total rain over the Arabian Peninsula. Atmos Res 231(2020):104672. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104672
Basarir A, Arman H, Hussein S, Murad A, Aldahan A, Abdulla Al-Abri M (2018) Trend detection in annual temperature and precipitation using Mann–Kendall test—a case study to assess climate change in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018. Buildings Symposium (ISBS 2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64349-6_1
Benzater B, Elouissi A, Benaricha B, Habi M (2019) Spatio-temporal trends in daily maximum rain in northwestern Algeria (Macta watershed case, Algeria). Arab J Geosci 12:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4488-8
Berg P, Moseley C, Haerter JO (2013) Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures. Nat Geosci 6:181–185. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1731.
Berolo W, Laborde JP (2003) Statistics of extreme daily rains in the Alpes-Maritimes.SophiaAntipolis University. Nice. Explanatory note for the map at 1/200 000 and its annexes
Bhatla R, Verma S, Pandey R, Tripathi A (2019) Evolution of extreme rain events over Indo-Gangetic plain in changing climate during 1901–2010. J Earth Syst Sci 128:120 cIndian Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1162-1
Blanchet J, Molinié G, Touati J (2018) Spatial analysis of trend in extreme daily rain in southern France. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3122-7
Breugem AJ, Wesseling JG, Oostindie K, Ritsema CJ (2020) Meteorological aspects of heavy precipitation in relation to floods – an overview. Earth Sci Rev 204(2020):103171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103171
Byun K, Hamlet AF (2020) A risk-based analytical framework for quantifying non-stationary flood risks and establishing infrastructure design standards in a changing environment. J Hydrol 584(2020):124575. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124575
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Sirangelo B (2016) Trends in the daily precipitation categories of Calabria (southern Italy). ScienceDirect. Procedia Eng 162(2016):32–38
Carvalho JRP, Assad ED, Oliveira AF, Pinto HS (2014) Annual maximum daily rain trends in the Midwest, southeast and southern Brazil in the last 71 years. Weather Clim Extremes 5–6:7–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.10.001
Chandrashekar VD, Shetty A (2018) Trends in extreme rain over ecologically sensitive Western Ghats and coastal regions of Karnataka: an observational assessment. Arab J Geosci 11:327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3700-6
Chattopadhyay R, Thomas A, Phani R, Joseph S, Sahai AK (2019) A study on the capability of the NCEP-CFS model in simulating the frequency and intensity of high-intensity rain events over Indian region in the high and low resolutions. Model Earth Syst Environ 5:85–100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0520-3
Chen W, Huang C, Wang L, Li D (2018) Climate extremes and their impacts on interannual vegetation variabilities: a case study in Hubei Province of Central China. Remote Sens 10:477. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10030477www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing. Accessed Mar 2020
Cooper RT (2019) Projection of future precipitation extremes across the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. Heliyon 5(2019):e01678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01678
Drobinski P, Alonzo B, Bastin S, Da Silva N, Muller C (2016) Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: what explains the hook shape? J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023497
Elouissi A (2016) Changement climatique, impacts et vulnérabilité. Cas du bassin versant de la Macta. Doctoral thesis. Abou Bakr Belkaid University of Tlemcen. http://dspace.univ-tlemcen.dz/bitstream/112/15065/1/Doc.Hyd.Elouissi.pdf. Accessed Dec 2019
Elouissi A, Şen Z, Habi M (2016) Algerian rainfall innovative trend analysis and its implications to Mactawatershed. Arab J Geosci 9, 303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2325-x
Elouissi A, Habi M, Benaricha B, Boualem SA (2017) Climate change impact on rainfall spatiotemporal variability (Macta watershed case Algeria). Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-017-3264-x
Ghosh S, Das D, Kao SC, Ganguly AR (2012) Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nat Clim Chang 2:86–91. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1327
Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Clim 18:1326–1350
Haan CT (1977) Statistical methods in hydrology. Iowa State University Press, 1977. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.3/24532. Accessed Jan 2020
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) In: Stocker TF, Qin Q, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Midgley PM et al (eds) The physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Kendall M (1975) Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London
Khaliq MN, Ouarda TBMJ, Ondo J-C, Gachon P, Bobée B (2006) Frequency analysis of a sequence of dependent and/or non-stationary hydro-meteorological observations: a review. J Hydrol 329(3–4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.004
Lorenzo MN, Alvarez I (2020) Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021–2050. Sci Total Environ 723(2020):138024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024
Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259
Meddi H, Meddi M, Assani AA (2014) Study of drought in seven Algerian plains. Arab J Sci Eng 39:339–359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-013-0827-3
Min SK, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegeri GC (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470:2011
Mishra V, Wallace JM, Lettenmaier DP (2012) Relationship between hourly extreme precipitation and local air temperature in the United States. Geophys Res Lett 39. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052790
Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, MishraV (2018) Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather Clim Extremes 20(C). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.005
Norrant C, Douguedroit A (2006) Monthly and daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean (1950–2000). Theor Appl Climatol 83:89–106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0163-y
Ouarda TBMJ, Charron C, Niranjan Kumar K, Marpu PR, Ghedira H, Molini A, Khayal I (2014) Evolution of the rainfall regime in the United Arab Emirates. J Hydrol 514:258–270
Roderick TP, Wasko C, Sharma A (2019) Atmospheric moisture measurements explain increases in tropical rainfall extremes. Geophys Res Lett 46(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080833.
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389
Şen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17(9):1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
Shao Y, Mu X, He Y, Sun W, Zhao G, Gao P (2019) Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation events at multi-time scales in the Qinling-Daba mountains region, China. Quat Int 525:89–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2019.07.029
Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2015) Decision 1/CP.21: adoption of the Paris Agreement. Paris Climate Change Conference; 2015 Nov 30–Dec 11; Paris, France
Wang Y, Xu Y, Tabari H, Wang J, Wang Q, Song S, Hu Z (2020) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China. Atmos Res 213(2020):104673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104673
Westmacott JR, Burn DH (1997) Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin. J Hydrol 202(263–279):1997
Westra S, Alexander LV, Zwiers FW (2013) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J Clim 26(11):3904–3918. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1
Yaduvanshi A, Kulkarni A, Bendapudi R, Haldar K (2020) Observed changes in extreme rain indices in semiarid and humid regions of Godavari basin, India: risks and opportunities. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04006-8
Zhang C, Wang Z, Zhou B, Li Y, Tang H, Xiang B (2018) Trends in autumn rain of West China from 1961 to 2014. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2361-9
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the National Water Resources Agency (ANRH) for the availability of data. The authors thank Professor Zohair Chentouf (King Saud University (KSA)) for his linguistic advice. We extend our gratitude to Pr. Laborde J. P. or his free Hydrolab software used for data analysis.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Disclaimer
The co-authorship of the publication has been based on a fair contribution and agreement between the major co-contributors of this work.
The manuscript has not yet been published or submitted to any other journal.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Broder J. Merkel
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Benzater, B., Elouissi, A., Dabanli, I. et al. Extreme rain trend analysis in Macta watershed North West Algeria. Arab J Geosci 14, 302 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06636-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06636-z