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Trend analysis and spatiotemporal prediction of precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration values using the ARIMA models: case of the Algerian Highlands

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Abstract

The Highlands region, in Algeria, covers an area about 260,000 km2 wide and it is populated by more than 10 million inhabitants, whose activities are overstressing the water resource. As a case study to test a workflow, based on solid proven methodologies, the Algerian highlands climatic assessment was performed by analyzing precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration data (from 1985 to 2014), then by computing the aridity index, the standardized precipitation index, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and by modeling the stochastic time series in order to predict climatic parameters using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The seasonal-ARIMA (SARIMA) model performed better than the other models and returned significant p values for all the studied variables. An increasing trend in precipitation was detected for most of the study area, while no significant trend in temperature or evapotranspiration was usually detected. The trends were confirmed by the SARIMA forecasted model (2015–2024). Furthermore, the forecast model results were compared with the NDVI index for the periods of 2010–2014 and 2015–2020. This difference confirmed the results obtained in terms of precipitation trends for the forecast between 2015 and 2024 by an increase in the NDVI index in most of the study area. The proposed workflow could be reliable for water resource management and planning in order to help decision makers to face climate change.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ziane Achour-Djelfa University, 3117, Djelfa, BP, Algeria

    Imad-Eddine Bouznad & Djamal Bengusmia

  2. Center for GeoTechnologies, University of Siena, Via Vetri Vecchi, 34, San Giovanni Valdarno, 52027, Italy

    Enrico Guastaldi, Andrea Zirulia, Mariantonietta Brancale & Alessio Barbagli

  3. CGT SpinOff S.r.l., Via E. Vezzosi, 15, 52100, Arezzo, Italy

    Enrico Guastaldi

  4. GEOexplorer Impresa Sociale S.r.l., Via E. Vezzosi, 15, 52100, Arezzo, Italy

    Enrico Guastaldi & Alessio Barbagli

  5. Department of Physics and Earth Science, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat, 1, 44122, Ferrara, Italy

    Alessio Barbagli

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  1. Imad-Eddine Bouznad
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  2. Enrico Guastaldi
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  3. Andrea Zirulia
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  4. Mariantonietta Brancale
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Bouznad, IE., Guastaldi, E., Zirulia, A. et al. Trend analysis and spatiotemporal prediction of precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration values using the ARIMA models: case of the Algerian Highlands. Arab J Geosci 13, 1281 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-06330-6

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