Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling and uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers using a surrogate model: a case study in Longkou, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seawater intrusion is a complex problem involving groundwater with variable density. It has an important impact on the development and utilization of groundwater resources in coastal areas. In previous studies, numerical simulations of seawater intrusion were performed by assigning fixed values to model parameters, thereby not taking into account the influence of stochastic variability of hydrogeological parameters on model predictions. In this study, we developed a three-dimensional mathematical model of seawater intrusion by modeling vertical solute transport due to density changes resulting from seawater intrusion. We then applied a Monte Carlo–based method to analyze uncertainty in model simulations of seawater intrusion. Because the Monte Carlo method requires the simulation model to be repeatedly run, we used the Kriging method to build a surrogate model that significantly reduced the computational load compared to the simulation model while ensuring the desired accuracy. Then we used a local sensitivity analysis method to select the two parameters with the greatest influence on model output. We treated the two selected parameters as random variables, and results show that (1) the three-dimensional, variable-density seawater intrusion model can effectively simulate and predict the distribution of seawater intrusion in the study area; (2) the local sensitivity analysis can accurately identify the hydrogeological parameters that most influence model output; (3) the uncertainty analysis based on the surrogate model reduces computing time substantially and provides a realistic assessment of the effect of hydrogeological parameter variability on seawater intrusion numerical simulation results.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abd-Elhamid H, Javadi A, Abdelaty I, Sherif M (2016) Simulation of seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta aquifer under the conditions of climate change. Hydrol Res 47(6):1198–1210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allow KA (2011) Seawater intrusion in Syrian coastal aquifers, past, present and future, case study. Arab J Geosci 4(3–4):645–653

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allow KA (2012) The use of injection wells and a subsurface barrier in the prevention of seawater intrusion: a modelling approach. Arab J Geosci 5(5):1151–1161

  • Bear J (1972) Dynamics of fluids in porous media. Elsevier Scientific 222–244

  • Binder K, Heermann D, Roelofs L, Mallinckrodt AJ, McKay S (1993) Monte Carlo simulation in statistical physics. Comput Phys 7(2):156–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Filippis G, Foglia L, Giudici M, Mehl S, Margiotta S, Negri SL (2016) Seawater intrusion in karstic, coastal aquifers: current challenges and future scenarios in the Taranto area (southern Italy). Sci Total Environ 573:1340–1351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong X, Woo H, Park H, Park J (2013) Application of a newly developed column test device to analyze seawater transport in sandy soils. Environ Earth Sci 70(5):2397–2404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan QY, Ajami NK, Gao XG, Sorooshian S (2007) Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging. Adv Water Resour 30(5):1371–1386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fen CS, Chan C, Cheng HC (2009) Assessing a response surface-based optimization approach for soil vapor extraction system design. J Water Resour Plan Manag 135(3):198–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • García-Menéndez O, Morell I, Ballesteros BJ, Renau-Pruñonosa A, Renau-Llorens A, Esteller MV (2016) Spatial characterization of the seawater upconing process in a coastal mediterranean aquifer (plana de castellón, Spain): evolution and controls. Environ Earth Sci 75(9):1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helton JC, Davis FJ (2003) Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 81(1):23–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hemker T, Fowler KR, Farthing MW, von Stryk O (2008) A mixed-integer simulation-based optimization approach with surrogate functions in water resources management. Optim Eng 9(4):341–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaymaz I (2005) Application of kriging method to structural reliability problems. Struct Saf 27(2):133–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kura NU, Ramli MF, Ibrahim S, Sulaiman WNA, Aris AZ (2014) An integrated assessment of seawater intrusion in a small tropical island using geophysical, geochemical, and geostatistical techniques. Environ Sci Pollut Res 21(11):7047–7064

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Langevin CD, Shoemaker WB, & Guo W (2003). MODFLOW-2000, the US geological survey modular ground-water model--documentation of the SEAWAT-2000 version with the variable-density flow process (VDF) and the integrated MT3DMS transport process (IMT) (No. 2003-426)

  • Li YP, Huang GH, Nie SL (2006) An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty. Adv Water Resour 29(5):776–789

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin J, Snodsmith JB, Zheng C, Wu J (2009) A modeling study of seawater intrusion in Alabama Gulf Coast, USA. Environ Geol 57(1):119–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Tao A, Dai C, Tan B, Shen H, Zhong G, ... & Chalov R. (2017) Experimental study of tidal effects on coastal groundwater and pollutant migration. Water Air Soil Pollut, 228(4):163

  • Lophaven SN, Nielsen HB, Sondergaard J (2002) DACE—a Matlab Kriging toolbox; version 2; informatics and mathematical modelling. Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo J, Lu W, Xin X, Chu H (2013) Alternative model application to the identification of an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation strategy for DNAPL-contaminated sites. J Earth Sci 24(6):1023–1032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKay MD, Beckman RJ, Conover WJ (1979) Comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 21(2):239–245

    Google Scholar 

  • Muleta MK, Nicklow JW (2005) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model. J Hydrol 306(1):127–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsson A, Sandberg G, Dahlblom O (2003) On Latin hypercube sampling for structural reliability analysis. Struct Saf 25(1):47–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Queipo NV, Haftka RT, Shyy W, Goel T, Vaidyanathan R, Tucker PK (2005) Surrogate-based analysis and optimization. Prog Aerosp Sci 41(1):1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao VG, Rao GT, Surinaidu L, Rajesh R, Mahesh J (2011) Geophysical and geochemical approach for seawater intrusion assessment in the Godavari Delta Basin, AP, India. Water Air Soil Pollut 217(1–4):503–514

    Google Scholar 

  • Robert CP (2004). Monte Carlo methods. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • Ryu JS, Kim MS, Cha KJ, Lee TH, Choi DH (2002) Kriging interpolation methods in geostatistics and DACE model. KSME Int J 16(5):619–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sacks J, Welch WJ, Mitchell TJ, Wynn HP (1989) Design and analysis of computer experiments. Stat Sci 4:409–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sappa G, Ergul S, Ferranti F, Ngalya Sweya L, Luciani G (2015) Effects of seasonal change and seawater intrusion on water quality for drinking and irrigation purposes, in coastal aquifers of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. J Afr Earth Sci Elsevier 105:64–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sappa G, Ferranti F, De Filippi FM, Cardillo G (2017) Mg2+ based method for Pertuso Spring discharge evaluation. Water 9(1):67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sherif MM, Singh VP (1999) E ect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 13:1277–1287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Miao J, Hu BX, Liu H, Zhang H, Ma Z (2017) Hydrogeochemical characterization and groundwater quality assessment in intruded coastal brine aquifers (Laizhou Bay, China). Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(26):21073–21090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng C, & Wang PP (1999). MT3DMS: a modular three-dimensional multispecies transport model for simulation of advection, dispersion, and chemical reactions of contaminants in groundwater systems; documentation and user's guide. Alabama Univ University

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.

Funding

This work was supported by the Development Program of China (NO. 2016YFC0402800).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun, China

    Tiansheng Miao, Wenxi Lu, Jiayuan Guo & Tianliang Liu

  2. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun, China

    Tiansheng Miao, Wenxi Lu & Jiayuan Guo

  3. Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun, China

    Tiansheng Miao, Wenxi Lu & Jiayuan Guo

  4. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China

    Jin Lin

Authors
  1. Tiansheng Miao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wenxi Lu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jin Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jiayuan Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Tianliang Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wenxi Lu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Miao, T., Lu, W., Lin, J. et al. Modeling and uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers using a surrogate model: a case study in Longkou, China. Arab J Geosci 12, 1 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4128-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4128-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation