Advertisement

Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain using RegCM4

  • Mansour Almazroui
  • M. Nazrul Islam
  • A. K. Alkhalaf
  • Fahad Saeed
  • Ramzah Dambul
  • M. Ashfaqur Rahman
Original Paper

Abstract

The performance of a regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RegCM4) in simulating the climate characteristics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been evaluated. The simulations carried out in this study contribute to the joint effort by the international regional downscaling community called Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The model has been forced with the boundary conditions obtained from the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2010. An east–west cold bias is found in the northern part of the MENA domain in RegCM4 that is absent in the ERA-Interim driving forcings, whereas a large warm bias is found over the southern Arabian Peninsula (Yemen/Oman) for both RegCM4 and ERA-Interim. The possible causes leading to the warm bias over Yemen/Oman in the RegCM4 are discussed. The model performed well in capturing the salient features of precipitation which includes ITCZ, Mediterranean cyclones as well as precipitation minima over the deserts. Moreover, the annual cycles of precipitation and mean temperature over the prominent river basins of the region have been ably captured by the model. Temperature-precipitation relationship revealed that the ERA-Interim driving forcings stay closer to the observations; however, RegCM4 remains competent for most of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification types. Performance of the model in capturing the near surface winds and specific humidity is also presented. Based on the results of this study, it is concluded that RegCM4 is well suited to conduct long-term high-resolution climate change projection for the future period over the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain.

Keywords

Temperature Rainfall Simulation Regional climate model CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the grant by the NSTIP strategic technologies program in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia– Project No. 12-ENV3197-03 to complete this work– and the Science and Technology Unit, King Abdulaziz University for technical support. ICTP, Trieste, Italy, is acknowledged for providing the model and the CRU data were acquired from their website. The simulations in this work were performed using Aziz Supercomputer at King Abdulaziz University’s High Performance Computing Center. The League of Arab States (LAS) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) are also acknowledged for leading and facilitating the “Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR)”.

References

  1. Almazroui M (2015) RegCM4 in climate simulation over CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain: selection of suitable domain, convection and land surface schemes. Int J Climatol. doi: 10.1002/joc.4340 Google Scholar
  2. Almazroui M, Awad AM, Islam MN, Al-Khalaf AK (2015a) A climatological study: wet season cyclone tracks in the East Mediterranean region. Theor Appl Climatol 120: 351–365. doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1178-z
  3. Almazroui M, Islam MN, Al-Khalaf AK, Saeed F (2015b) Best convective parameterization scheme within RegCM to downscale CMIP5 multi-model data for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain. Theor Appl Climatol. doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1463-5 Google Scholar
  4. Almazroui M (2012) Dynamical downscaling of rainfall and temperature over the Arabian Peninsula using RegCM. Clim Res 52:49–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modelling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Giorgi F, Hewitson B (2001) Regional climate information-evaluation and projections. In Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, XioaosuGoogle Scholar
  7. Giorgi F (2006) Regional climate modelling: Status and perspectives. Journal de Physique 4 139: 101–118. D (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kongdom and New York, US, 583–638 pp., ISBN: 0521 01495 6Google Scholar
  8. Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F, Mariotti L, Sylla MB, Bi X, Elguindi N, Diro GT, Nair V, Giuliani G, Turuncoglu UU, Cozzini S, Guttler I, OBrien TA, Tawfik AB, Shalaby A, Zakey AS, Steiner AL, Stordal F, Sloan LC, Brankovic C (2012) RegCM: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hagemann S, Dümenil L (1998) A parameterization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale. Clim Dyn 14(1):17–31Google Scholar
  10. Holtslag A, de Bruijn E, Pan HL (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 118:1561–1575CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324
  12. Islam MN, Almazroui M (2012) Direct effects and feedback of desert dust on the climate of the Arabian Peninsula during the wet season: a regional climate model study. Clim Dyn 39:2239–2250. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1293-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Jacob D, Baerring L, Christensen OB, Christensen JH, de Castro M, Deque M, Deque M, Giorgi F, Hagemann S, Hirschi M, Jones R, Kjellstrom E, Lenderink G, Rockel B, Sanchez Sanchez E, Schar CH, Senevirantne S, Somot S, van Ulden A, van den Hurk B (2007) An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: design of the experiments and model performance. Clim Chang 81:31–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Jacob D, Elizalde A, Haensler A, Hagemann S, Kumar P, Podzun R, Rechid D, Remedio AR, Saeed F, Sieck K, Teichmann C, Wilhelm C (2012) Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) Regions. Atmosphere 3(1):181–199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC (2004) Generating high-resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKGoogle Scholar
  16. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated highresolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712. doi: 10.1002/joc.1181 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Murphy JM, Mitchell JFB (1995) Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere model to increasing carbon dioxide. Part II. Spatial and temporal structure of response. J Clim 8:57–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. New M, Hulme M, Jones P (2000) Representing twentieth–century space–time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–1996 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13(13):2217–2238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC) (2009) FLUXNET Network Map. Available online [http://webmap.ornl.gov/wcsdown/wcsdown.jsp?dg_id=10012_1] from ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A
  20. Pal JS, Small E, Eltahir E (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J Geophys Res 105:29579–29594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solmn F, Gao X, Rauscher SA, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter A, Ashfaq M, Saeed SF, Bell JL, Diffenbaugh NS, Karmacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, da Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner A (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(9):1395–1409CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Sylla MB, Coppola E, Mariotti L, Giorgi F, Ruti PM, Dell’Aquila A, Bi X (2010) Multiyear Simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis. Clim Dyn 35:231–247CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Qian JH (2008) Why precipitation is mostly concentrated over islands in the maritime continent. J Atmos Sci 65:1428–1441CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Saeed F, Hagemann S, Jacob D (2012) A framework for the evaluation of the South Asian summer monsoon in a regional climate model applied to REMO. Int J Climatol 32:430–440. doi: 10.1002/joc.2285 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Saeed F, Hagemann S, Jacob D (2009) Impact of irrigation on the South Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 36:L20711. doi: 10.1029/2009GL040625 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2006) ERA-Interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newslett 110:25–35Google Scholar
  27. Sowers J, Vengosh A, Weinthal E (2011) Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa. Clim Chang 104(3–4):599–627CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Wang A, Xubin Z (2013) Development of global hourly 0.5° land surface air temperature datasets. J Clim 26:7676–7691CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme) (2012) The United Nations World Water Development Report 4: managing water under uncertainty and risk. UNESCO, ParisGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Saudi Society for Geosciences 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mansour Almazroui
    • 1
  • M. Nazrul Islam
    • 1
  • A. K. Alkhalaf
    • 1
  • Fahad Saeed
    • 1
    • 2
  • Ramzah Dambul
    • 1
  • M. Ashfaqur Rahman
    • 1
  1. 1.Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of MeteorologyKing Abdulaziz UniversityJeddahSaudi Arabia
  2. 2.Sustainable Development Policy InstituteIslamabadPakistan

Personalised recommendations