Time-series analysis of water and soil radon anomalies to identify micro–macro-earthquakes
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Soil and water 222Rn gas concentrations were observed over 8 months on a branch of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), which is one of the world’s most seismically active areas. During such observations, 110 micro- and macro-earthquakes were recorded. The largest earthquake was the ML 5.4 İçme earthquake that occurred on 23 June 2011. Twenty days before this earthquake, anomalous increases were recorded in soil and water 222Rn gas as a time-series. The 222Rn anomalies recorded in the research area were likely precursors to the İçme earthquake. A few days before the earthquake, the soil and water 222Rn gas concentrations increased by approximately 70–99 %. Consequently, strong evidence suggests that the radon anomaly originated due to stress accumulation preceding the İçme earthquake.
KeywordsRadon Precursor Micro-earthquake Trend analysis Time-series Prediction
The authors would like to thank KOERI (Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Turkey) for the earthquake data and the local community (approximately 12 people) for the significant aid with the difficult field studies herein.
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