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Estimating the demand for informal public transport: evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar

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Abstract

Informal public transport has been growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urban infrastructure development tends to lag behind rapid population growth, informal public transport often meets the growing gap between demand and supply in urban mobility. Despite the rich literature primarily focused on formal transport modes, the informal transport sector is relatively unknown. The paper analyzes the demand behavior in the “informal” minibus sector in Antananarivo, Madagascar, taking advantage of a recent user survey of thousands of people. It is found that the demand for informal public transport is generally inelastic. Essentially, people have no other choice but to use this kind of public transport. While the time elasticity is estimated at − 0.02 to − 0.05, the price elasticity is − 0.05 to − 0.06 for short-distance travelers, who may have alternative choices, such as motorcycle taxi or walking. Unlike formal public transportation, the demand also increases with income. Regardless of the income level, everyone uses minibuses. The estimated demand functions indicate that people prefer safety and more flexibility in transit. The paper shows that combining these improvements and fare adjustments, the informal transport sector can contribute to increasing people’s mobility and reducing traffic congestion in the city.

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Source: ZIPJET (2017)

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Source: World Development Indicators

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Source: World Development Indicators

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Source: World Bank (2019)

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Source: World Bank (2019)

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Source: World Bank (2016)

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Source: World Bank (2016)

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Notes

  1. Good literature reviews are provided by Shimazaki and Rahman (1996), Phun and Yai (2016), Behal et al. (2020), and IDB (2020).

  2. There are a number of studies examining the demand for individual car use and public transportation, including rail, bus, tram, taxi and even walk (e.g., Hensher and Rose 2007; Habibi 2012; Deb and Filippini 2013; Brands et al. 2014; Chakrabarti 2017).

  3. According to the latest national census data (INSTAT 2018).

  4. According to the UN Habitat estimate (UN ESA 2018).

  5. Madagascar’s GDP per capita is about 1% of the Japanese GDP per capita. The land prices in Antananarivo are about 1.1% of those in Tokyo.

  6. According to World Development Indicators.

  7. Antananarivo Renivohitra (comprised of six districts), Antananarivo Avaradrano, Antananarivo Atsimondrano.

  8. Arivanimamo and Ambohidratrimo.

  9. The original data range from 1 to 67, seemingly including some outliers. Thus, the conventional letter values are used to identify outliers. The upper outer fence is 15. Ten observations are considered to be severe outliers outside the outer fence, which make up about two per million of a normal population. Though the regression results remain broadly the same regardless of whether the outliers are included or excluded.

  10. In the quantile regression models, some of the dummy variables are omitted due to multicollinearity.

  11. The average number of transfers made is the same between the two groups. It is 1.2 times for travelers within CUA and 1.3 times for those who travel from and to the outside of the CUA.

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  1. Transport Global Knowledge and Expertise, World Bank Group, Washington, D.C., USA

    Atsushi Iimi

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 8, 9 and 10.

Table 8 Demand functions differentiated by distance travelled
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Table 9 Demand functions differentiated by trip purposes
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Table 10 Demand functions differentiated by gender
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Iimi, A. Estimating the demand for informal public transport: evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar. Public Transp 15, 129–168 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12469-022-00300-9

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