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Modelling risk aversion using a disaggregate stochastic process model in congested transit networks

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Existing transit assignment models which either use equilibrium or stochastic processes assume full knowledge of the network. This assumption leads to an assignment process wherein passengers renounce their individual experiences to base their route choice on the collective experiences on each route. This seems unrealistic especially in a congested network in the absence of any external source of information. The fact that passengers failing to board a service of their choice experience a different level of reliability to a passenger being able to board the same needs to be acknowledged and a model, sensitive to the fact that reliability is an individual entity, needs to be explored. The stochastic process model proves to be one of the advantageous methods for countering the asymmetric non-separable nature of strict capacity constraint transit assignment, thereby making it a possible choice for modelling reliability. In the current paper such a ‘Reliability based disaggregate stochastic process model (R-DSPM)’ following the Markov principles with strict capacity constraints is proposed. The R-DSPM framework provides a stationary and ergodic process model. The model is implemented onto an example network and its sensitivity to various parameters is discussed along with a case study.

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  1. This assumption might be questionable as when a passenger has an experience of a route “choose first of line A or B” then they learn the waiting + in-vehicle time associated with such a route, but learn nothing about the waiting + in-vehicle time associated with the route “choose line A” or “choose line B”. But it is not easy to represent this kind of cross-route information transfer under no-information scenario, hence it seems reasonable to assume that travellers only learn a route by actually following it themselves.


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The author acknowledges with gratitude the valuable suggestions of the supervisors Prof. David Watling and Dr. Chandra Balijepalli during the period of her PhD research (Seetharaman 2015) at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK. The funding of Commonwealth Scholarship Commission-UK for this research is gratefully acknowledged along with thanks to Dr. S. Gangopadhyay, former Director CSIR-Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi, India, for granting study leave to pursue her PhD. Funding was provided by Commonwealth Scholarship Commission (Grant No. INCS- 2011-148).

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Correspondence to Padma Seetharaman.

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Seetharaman, P. Modelling risk aversion using a disaggregate stochastic process model in congested transit networks. Public Transp 9, 549–569 (2017).

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